Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is once again less amplified and trending towards the Euro and CMC 

Yup. The primary doesn't survive into WNY and Lake Ontario. But it also means it continues to cut back on the overrunning precipitation. End result is about the same or less snow and less rain.

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS - FWIW doesn't make much sense to me 

[winterwx21]

GGEM is showing a significant thump of snow before going over to sleet. Very cold ... even the south coast of NJ gets a few hours of snow before mixing. Gotta like that we have a VERY cold airmass in place for this storm.

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, Brett said:

Where are you seeing it out to Thursday already? The piviotal site only has it to Tuesday right now

I watched the color loop on this site. It always comes out early on this site. You just hit animate and you can watch the color loop. First 48 hours it's the RGEM, and then it switches over to GGEM. You just hit animate. It's a nice tool. It's just like watching the futurecast that you see on TV, only it's the Canadian models instead...

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[NEG NAO]

12Z Canadian SECS or Borderline MECS in south jersey - still a long way to go IMO....work in progress situation

 

 

[EastonSN+]

28 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Canadian SECS or Borderline MECS in south jersey - still a long way to go IMO....work in progress situation

 

 

I have seen this before, first burst comes in then looses steam and next burst is less and quick to sleet. I believe there was a good example which cause Philly to get 8 during a football game and we ended up with 1 to 3.

[MJO812]

Ukie highest temp is 33 for the city 

[SleetStormNJ]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s why the NAM is so good when it gets within its best range. It correctly showed the changeover to sleet on Dec 17th when the globals were too cold between 700 and 800 mb and just had snow. It does really well with low level cold air and WAA in the 800-700 mb layers. That why I hope they have a suitable replacement for the NAM when it’s scheduled to be retired in a few years. Otherwise, short term forecasts of correct P-Type will really suffer.  

Yup.  Will be key to hone in late tomorrow and Wednesday as it gets closer.  

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s why the NAM is so good when it gets within its best range. It correctly showed the changeover to sleet on Dec 17th when the globals were too cold between 700 and 800 mb and just had snow. It does really well with low level cold air and WAA in the 800-700 mb layers. That why I hope they have a suitable replacement for the NAM when it’s scheduled to be retired in a few years. Otherwise, short term forecasts of correct P-Type will really suffer.  

To be fair the Nam was to quick to change to sleet in Philadelphia last December. The city ended with 6 while the Nam only had 1-2. 

[NEG NAO]

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Canadian SECS or Borderline MECS in south jersey - still a long way to go IMO....work in progress situation

 

 

It's all about where the heaviest snow bands set up. Guidance has been shifting south for several cycles now. Regardless, sleet is coming unless everything continues to shift further south. The primary low still gets to WPA. That almost guarantees significant mid-level warming. North of the MA border now looks like mostly snow on some guidance.

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro is interesting storm center  is still in Southern Alabama and the HP is holding strong just north of New England - precip already this far north

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro - taking Benchmark track now

[NEG NAO]

[SnoSki14]

Some models going for that Miller B route. 

And they still appear to be trending that way so we'll see what happens. 

I know some will want to compare Tuesday's bust with Thursday but they are very different storms. The presence of an arctic high is key.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Not alot of rain 

[SleetStormNJ]

True Wintry Mix storm of decent duration on EURO.  Prolonged snow with a bit of a thump for few hours with sleet mix and then some FRZ rain and light rain at end for some locales.  

[Northof78]

Very high chance this is a snow to mix storm, staying near/below for of the metro at this point....

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Not alot of rain 

from central NJ north mainly frozen - I don't know if I buy the heavier snow in south jersey

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I have seen this before, first burst comes in then looses steam and next burst is less and quick to sleet. I believe there was a good example which cause Philly to get 8 during a football game and we ended up with 1 to 3.

It’s always a question of how the snow comes in-like a wall or shredded. If shredded the warm air advances more quickly and flips it over to sleet. That was our problem in the December storm. 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

DC may finally get their storm!

[White Gorilla]

27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

DC may finally get their storm!

Why is there a relative snow hole in Southern New England through Northern NJ? 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Why is there a relative snow hole in Southern New England through Northern NJ? 

First wave maxes out to the south. Then the main storm comes in and it's lighter and flips quick.

[eduggs]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not alot of rain 

Yeah the big takeaway from recent trends is that we are moving away from the big washout finale scenario. Hopefully we can minimize or even eliminate the change to rain. I'm still skeptical of warning level snows. I think most everyone starts with several hours of snow on Thursday. How heavy it gets will probably be a nowcast. But I still expect sleet to arrive quickly. Hopefully this ends as a mix to dryslot and not rain.

[eduggs]

The GEFS continue to be wetter and warmer than the op, particularly after the initial changeover. Although they have been decreasing QPF and getting colder for several cycles.

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GEFS continue to be wetter and warmer than the op, particularly after the initial changeover. Although they have been decreasing QPF and getting colder for several cycles.

Just hoping for one more 5-6" event to put us over 40" and wrap this winter up. 

Things are looking more spring-like post 2/20-21. 

[White Gorilla]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just hoping for one more 5-6" event to put us over 40" and wrap this winter up. 

Things are looking more spring-like post 2/20-21. 

Until winter returns in March? 

[crossbowftw3]

6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Until winter returns in March? 

Yeah, I personally would expect that March can deliver us at least one or two more appreciable snowstorms before we definitely go over to spring. Next 10 days after Thursday things at least quiet down and moderate out some.

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Yeah, I personally would expect that March can deliver us at least one or two more appreciable snowstorms before we definitely go over to spring. Next 10 days after Thursday things at least quiet down and moderate out some.

Will be a nice reprieve 

[gravitylover]

I'm not feeling the March snows so lets see what we can do to get at least 4 inches out of this to put me slightly above the annual average here. I can't have an near record month and not hit the annual average, that would bug me for a long time.