Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Given the NAO the Canadian is probably too optimistic

I think so but these trends are important especially as we get closer in. 

Either way I think Thursday will be a big wintry mess. 

[Blizzwalker]

Why does a storm being more amped (stronger/ further north/warmer) cause a storm soon after to be colder/ southeast ?                                                                   I have heard multiple posters state that they hope the Tuesday storm is more amped so the Thursday storm will have a more southeastern ( snowier) track.

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think its possible as SnowGoose just mentioned the Tuesday storm is acting as a 50/50

Can you or SnowGoose or someone else explain what you mean by Tuesday acting as 50 / 50 ? Thanks

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said:

Why does a storm being more amped (stronger/ further north/warmer) cause a storm soon after to be colder/ southeast ?                                                    I have heard multiple posters state that they hope the Tuesday storm is more amped so the Thursday storm will have a more southeastern ( snowier) track.

 

In this situation as SnowGoose mentioned previously the Tuesday storm is acting as the 50/50 preventing the cold arctic HP from escaping north and east. Look at the CMC that HP really doesn't move much the entire event. This prevents the LP from cutting west and it ends up staying south and east of us the entire event. Actually the CMC has the best snows across central and southern NJ

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Would be nice but I doubt it. We’re back into a period where the SE ridge is dominating and the blocking or what’s left doesn’t compensate. Nina climo in Feb can only be held off for so long. Should hopefully be a nice 3-6” thump before rain or sleet though. The high can at least make that happen. 

Part of the vortex is actually deamplified the ridge on the cmc

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Would be nice but I doubt it. We’re back into a period where the SE ridge is dominating and the blocking or what’s left doesn’t compensate. Nina climo in Feb can only be held off for so long. Should hopefully be a nice 3-6” thump before rain or sleet though. The high can at least make that happen. 

I've never bought into this nina/nino climo stuff as I've seen a wide range out outcomes with each phase, not enough evidence to favor one over the other.  Besides we're in a much different climate pattern now vs 50 years ago so I doubt what applied then still applies anymore.  Our best and worst winters and biggest snowstorms have occurred in each phase and at all times of the season.

People try to simplify LR forecasting too much when they rely on just one thing when in reality a vast array of competing factors determine the outcome.

 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Brett said:

The GFS 16 looks like only a few inches of snow before it changes over

That is what we are expecting.  This isnt going to be a big snowstorm. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

I don't think that was ever really the question. Icing north and west of the city was and still is. 

Gfs is slightly less amped

High is  also n a better spot on the 6zgfs when the precip arrives

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

@MJO812 So what are you saying? You're expecting more snow than ice north and west? 

No

I just read what the model shows

GFS is still adjusting to the other models in regards to a weaker primary . What this would mean is that the storm would be less amped and more snowy on the front end.

[wdrag]

Just one thought' I'm seeing a more eastward trend to the end of the week, possibly because of a little shortwave in advance of the primary trough on Thursday. 00z/19 Friday projection from the  06z/15 MREF shows this. This gives us the first snow WAA shot, but also cools the column a bit as it shoves eastward Thu night while the primary lags slightly.  Definitely of interest for those who prefer slightly cooler-southward scenarios. I'm not so confident of as big an ice situation here THU night as tonight. I could be wrong on this. 

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That is what we are expecting.  This isnt going to be a big snowstorm. 

How come you didn't mention the 0Z EURO? - I would have but I hit the sack before it ran . That model is further east and has WSW level snow potential - 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

How come you didn't mention the 0Z EURO? - I would have but I hit the sack before it ran . That model is further east and has WSW level snow potential - 

I forgot lol

[White Gorilla]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I forgot lol

A moderate snow of 4-8 inches would be beautiful. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

A moderate snow of 4-8 inches would be beautiful. 

Even a few inches would be considered a win. This would have been a great week with 2 snowstorms if the PV  didn't dive down into the middle of the country.

[Blizzardo]

9 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Can you or SnowGoose or someone else explain what you mean by Tuesday acting as 50 / 50 ? Thanks

The tuesday low moves to 50 degree longitude and 50 degree latitude and sets up a block for the next storm coming. Known as a 50/50 block.

[HVSnowLover]

Maybe Im being a weenie about this but I really am higher on this potential then a lot of people seem to be. I really don't see this as a front end thump to a rainstorm but more so mainly snow to sleet ending as drizzle. Euro has been very consistent with the further SE track. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Maybe Im being a weenie about this but I really am higher on this potential then a lot of people seem to be, I really don't see this as a front end thump to a rainstorm but more so mainly snow to sleet ending as drizzle. Euro has been very consistent with the further SE track. 

It's got good potential. 

Models keep trending less amped or basically the opposite of tomorrow. 

Could be a last hurrah too as pattern moving forward doesn't look very favorable. 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Maybe Im being a weenie about this but I really am higher on this potential then a lot of people seem to be, I really don't see this as a front end thump to a rainstorm but more so mainly snow to sleet ending as drizzle. Euro has been very consistent with the further SE track. 

I agree 100% BUT won't hop on that train till after today's midday runs and see if they keep trending towards a colder more east track offshore keeping the cold enough air locked in. And also if that 50/50 block keeps the HP in place long enough.

[rclab]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Even a few inches would be considered a win. This would have been a great week with 2 snowstorms if the PV  didn't dive down into the middle of the country.

The way it goes for us Anthony, we would be recording the deepest sustained dry cold in memory while DC and Baltimore were trying to dig out. As always .....

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I agree 100% BUT won't hop on that train till after today's midday runs and see if they keep trending towards a colder more east track offshore keeping the cold enough air locked in. And also if that 50/50 block keeps the HP in place long enough.

Agree cautiously optimistic but definitely not locking anything in at this point, we've been burned by late trends too many times and probably won't really know the outcome until tomorrows system passes.

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Brett said:

I hope the NAM is wrong about Thursday it barely has any snow

The Nam is useless after 48hrs meaning very low model skill. It's also almost always too amplified.

[hudsonvalley21]

agree, also a lot of players on the field in this active pattern. Nothing is a lock in this period of time. It could come down to now casting for Thursday.

[Brian5671]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Upton in their early morning forecasts has little or no snow accumulation for Thursday - whose brainstorm was that ?

ZFP from KOKX (cod.edu)

also the AFD contradicts the actual forecast ..........

AFD from KOKX (cod.edu)

given the way today is going it's not a bad call...

[eduggs]

We do seem to be trending towards slightly less QPF overall and a shorter duration of ice. The eastward shift and slight separation between the initial WAA and whatever follows is noted. Best case seems to be about 10hr snow with 4-6hrs of that intense, followed by brief zr then dryslot. My heart wants to believe the snowier solutions, but my brain tells me otherwise. To me, the synoptics don't favor a long period of snow. This looks like a lower impact version of December 17. I think sleet taints the snow sooner than modeled and a dryslot saves western areas from a washout. Snow accumulations then come down to how intense the WAA snow bands are. If heavy 1-2" bands materialize some areas could put down a quick 6". But if it's more the moderate .5-1" stuff that I expect, we're looking at more like 2-4" followed by ip/zr away from immediate coast. Mixed signals right now on model guidance. 

In either of the past 2 winters, we're looking ahead here to a major winter storm. It's important to keep that in perspective.

[SleetStormNJ]

Event is still a good 72 plus hours away.  Too much can slip in either direction and ingredients (PV, High), low placement and track have to be figured out over next 48 hours.

That said, I still like this event for potential significance/impact.  Not every storm can be a 1-2 foot behemoth.  I've seen significant events surprise/wreak havoc because they get "downplayed".

[eduggs]

 

Lots of surface and snow maps around here. Does anybody look at the upper levels anymore?

This does not look like a classic snow setup. Maybe it could work out for MA and northward. But at our latitude it's a wishing and hoping setup. It's kind of the typical miller B with SWFE characteristics. 8 or 9 times out of 10 we see advisory level snows or less with this. 1 or 2 times out of 10 someone in the Mid-Atlantic to our area sees 6-10 (sometimes undermodeled) as the intense overrunning produces banded heavy snow. IMO the mid-level warming with be quick and strong. To me that suggests brief heavy snow to mix.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

 

Lots of surface and snow maps around here. Does anybody look at the upper levels anymore?

This does not look like a classic snow setup. Maybe it could work out for MA and northward. But at our latitude it's a wishing and hoping setup. It's kind of the typical miller B with SWFE characteristics. 8 or 9 times out of 10 we see advisory level snows or less with this. 1 or 2 times out of 10 someone in the Mid-Atlantic to our area sees 6-10 (sometimes undermodeled) as the intense overrunning produces banded heavy snow. IMO the mid-level warming with be quick and strong. To me that suggests brief heavy snow to mix.

[eduggs]

On most guidance, the warmest layer is up around 750mb and is a few degrees C warmer than 850. Even a relatively cold model like the EC has mid-level warmth surging northward midday Thurs. If it is not picking up the warm layer above 850 (as I suspect), then it will be undermodeling the sleet surging northward through NJ at that time.

[eduggs]

[MJO812]

Gfs is once again less amplified and trending towards the Euro and CMC