Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[tek1972]

Ripping here

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[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3.2 inches in Central Park as of 1:00 PM.

24.4 inches for February now, which breaks into the top ten for February at number 10.

37.0 inches for the season or 7 inches above the full seasonal normal

[Mitchel Volk]

Interesting thet are below the 10 to 1 ratio.  It was very fluffy here in Brooklyn so I would think the would of had more

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Parts of Central NJ already have 4 inches

6 inches is what I've measured here, seems similar to other places in W Nassau and Queens.

It was snowing hard to about 1 PM not much after that though

[jm1220]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

6 inches is what I've measured here, seems similar to other places in W Nassau and Queens.

It was snowing hard to about 1 PM not much after that though

In Oceanside?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

3.2 inches in Central Park as of 1:00 PM.

24.4 inches for February now, which breaks into the top ten for February at number 10.

37.0 inches for the season or 7 inches above the full seasonal normal

by the end of this storm it will reach 40- book it!

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

In Oceanside?

well more like Lynbrook/East Rockaway

it was gorgeous when it was snowing heavily we had a mini white out for awhile between 12 and 1

 

[sferic]

Close to 3 inches OTG in Liberty NY I think an additional 3-5 by tomorrow.

 

Thoughts ? @snywx @Ericjcrash @crossbowftw3

[crossbowftw3]

13 minutes ago, sferic said:

Close to 3 inches OTG in Liberty NY I think an additional 3-5 by tomorrow.

 

Thoughts ? @snywx @Ericjcrash @crossbowftw3

pretty solid idea 

[Mitchel Volk]

Freezing drizzle and slush on the pavement in Cobble Hill

[Lawnguyland]

What's the consensus about more snow, sleet overnight thurs and thru Friday for Nassau county long Island? Eyeballing id say we have 4 plus inches. Im out doing snow removal now.  Thanks for any replies!

[uncle W]

round two's have not lived up to expectations so far...they hardly ever do...

[JustinRP37]

21 minutes ago, uncle W said:

round two's have not lived up to expectations so far...they hardly ever do...

Funny snow storms are like the bedroom I guess. Yet we are always hopeful that round two delivers. I think we can get another 1-4 inches depending on the area and development. 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, uncle W said:

round two's have not lived up to expectations so far...they hardly ever do...

Check the Nam 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Check the Nam 

I wouldn't bet on it. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't bet on it. 

alot of that will be white rain once past 9am....  the stuff that come after 3-4 pm has a chance

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't bet on it. 

Why not ? Temps below freezing.  Jet streak is impressive. 

3k has 1-3inches 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Why not ? Temps below freezing.  Jet streak is impressive. 

3k has 1-3inches 

We'll see. These things rarely work out. NAM looks decent, RGEM has an I-90 and SNE event mainly. 

[MJO812]

Icon has 2+ tomorrow 

[jm1220]

GFS (old version) is on the RGEM train for the most part. Northern areas get a few inches, maybe 1-2" near the coast and it being focused on I-90/SNE.

New GFS v16 is another 1-3" for most of us, more to the north. 

[MJO812]

Gfs Para 1-3 inches 

[Allsnow]

Euro 1-3 tomorrow 

[Santa Claus]

freezing rain in Piscataway.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We'll see. These things rarely work out. NAM looks decent, RGEM has an I-90 and SNE event mainly. 

it's been snowing here nicely since 9:30, about an inch or so to freshen things up

[Rjay]

On 2/17/2021 at 10:30 PM, George001 said:

I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

How'd this forecast go?

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's been snowing here nicely since 9:30, about an inch or so to freshen things up

more like 2 inches today....

[George001]

welp, I busted. My forecast was awful, there were a couple of red flags, such as the Euro and Navy being too far south with the low. I was banking on ratios to save us, while that idea of us getting good ratios was right (many areas received 20:1 ratios), there wasn’t enough QPF to get us anywhere near a foot. I’m probably going to end up around 5-6 inches when all is said and done. It was foolish of me to ignore the navy and euro, and to only side with the guidance that gave my area the most snow. Out west especially some areas got around 1/4 of what I forecast. 
 

unfortunately, the polar vortex looks like it’s headed to the North Pole on the models so it looks like winter is coming to an end. Can’t complain though, this winter was great compared to the last 2 winters, which were as terrible as my forecasts.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4.4 inches in Central Park as of 7:00 PM tonight which should be close to their final total for the storm.

25.6 inches for February now which breaks into the top ten for February at number 8. This is well deserved after last years February became only the fifth in over 150 years of records to record only a trace of snow for the entire month.

38.2 inches for the season or 8.2 inches above their full seasonal normal.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

welp, I busted. My forecast was awful, there were a couple of red flags, such as the Euro and Navy being too far south with the low. I was banking on ratios to save us, while that idea of us getting good ratios was right (many areas received 20:1 ratios), there wasn’t enough QPF to get us anywhere near a foot. I’m probably going to end up around 5-6 inches when all is said and done. It was foolish of me to ignore the navy and euro, and to only side with the guidance that gave my area the most snow. Out west especially some areas got around 1/4 of what I forecast. 
 

unfortunately, the polar vortex looks like it’s headed to the North Pole on the models so it looks like winter is coming to an end. Can’t complain though, this winter was great compared to the last 2 winters, which were as terrible as my forecasts.

And you shall remain George001 and not King George as some were ready to coronate you if you were right. Alas I was one of them, hoping you would wear the royal robes tonight.

[George001]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And you shall remain George001 and not King George as some were ready to coronate you if you were right. Alas I was one of them, hoping you would wear the royal robes tonight.

There’s always next year, way too early to make a forecast but the long range models are hinting at the possibility of another La Niña, possibly even rivaling the strength of the 2010-2011 La Niña. if that verifies I’ll have lots of chances to become crowned King George.