Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[George001]

I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

[White Gorilla]

26 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

Well I give you credit for your gutsy call when no model or met is coming even close to your prediction.  

[jm1220]

0z HRRR was quite nice. Good snow event for just about everyone. Unfortunately it's usually a little slow bringing mid level warm air in.

[White Gorilla]

32 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

If you are right, I wlll call you King George for a little while. 

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

Glad you found a new forum to spam.  

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Well I give you credit for your gutsy call when no model or met is coming even close to your prediction.  

He usual calls for 3-4' on most storms.  He must not feeling this one.

[TheManWithNoFace]

46 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Some guy in the NE forum says we are all going to be shocked Friday when all of us get over a foot of snow. Says NAM initialized wrong and low is further west than modeled.  Sounds like a wishcast.  This is not from a met! 

It's too bad WPC ended that model diagnostic discussion product.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

He usual calls for 3-4' on most storms.  He must not feeling this one.

I think he is snowman19's evil twin. 

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

If you are right, I wlll call you King George for a little while. 

There was a guy on this forum several years back who posted 3-4 days out from a storm that looked like a 1-2 incher at best it would be 8-12 inches and ended up correct.  I'll never forget that.

[MJO812]

Gfs now has 2 waves

 

[Nibor]

There also used to be a poster that would write novel long posts about epic snowstorms. I think one of the lines was how wind swept snow would reach the peaks of telephone lines. Wonder what happened to him. He was great for a laugh.

[White Gorilla]

27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There was a guy on this forum several years back who posted 3-4 days out from a storm that looked like a 1-2 incher at best it would be 8-12 inches and ended up correct.  I'll never forget that.

Wish he was still with us 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The radar makes it look like it's snowing in Orange County right now. Nothing hitting the ground that I can see yet.

[eduggs]

The GFS has less than 0.25" QPF for much of the area (excluding southern parts of the region) through Fri morning. Tomorrow is looking like a relatively minor snowfall on most guidance now. Hopefully a few rounds of steady snow on Fri make up for it. But if the follow up wave fails to deliver I can see how this almost becomes a sub-advisory event for some areas. In my mind I got greedy yesterday and imagined getting the heavy overrunning and the follow up wave. And now it's seems possible that we fail on both. Even the finger of initial light overrunning that most models pointed at us for days also went north of us

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS has less than 0.25" QPF for much of the area (excluding southern parts of the region) through Fri morning. Tomorrow is looking like a relatively minor snowfall on most guidance now. Hopefully a few rounds of steady snow on Fri make up for it. But if the follow up wave fails to deliver I can see how this almost becomes a sub-advisory event for some areas. In my mind I got greedy yesterday and imagined getting the heavy overrunning and the follow up wave. And now it's seems possible that we fail on both. Even the finger of initial light overrunning that most models pointed at us for days also went north of us

Hence why I was concerned about the strung out mess possibility ruining the whole system. Lousy WAA shunted east event and coastal system getting going too late. Honestly I have no clue what to expect tomorrow or Fri. Good luck to the meteorologists paid to make these calls. “Straightforward” I guess not with these 0z models so far. 

[wishcast_hater]

24 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I think he is snowman19's evil twin. 

Joe Bastardi is that you?

[donsutherland1]

The upcoming complex system will provide a good test for the GFSv16. Over the last 5 cycles (2/17 0z through 2/18 0z), the GFSv16 has had much better run-to-run continuity than the GFS. 

The standard deviation for three select cities follows:

ABE: GFS: 0.87”; GFSv16: 0.67”

NYC: GFS: 1.46”; GFSv16: 0.54”

PHL: GFS: 1.60”; GFSv16: 0.68”

Snowfall Amounts:

ABE: 2/17 0z: GFS: 7.1”; GFSv16: 6.3” and 2/18 0z: GFS: 6.3”; GFSv16: 5.2”

NYC: 2/17 0z: GFS: 7.6”; GFSv16: 4.8” and 2/18 0z: GFS: 4.4”; GFSv16: 5.5”

PHL: 2/17 0z: GFS: 7.1”; GFSv16: 7.4” and 2/18 0z: GFS: 4.9”; GFSv16: 7.3”

[donsutherland1]

[weatherfreeeeak]

HRDPS looks pretty

[Brasiluvsnow]

crickets,,,,,any news ?

[sn0w]

16 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

crickets,,,,,any news ?

It's going to snow

[KeithB]

Feels like a 4 to 7 incher in Rockland!. But hey..I'll take it!

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The GFS has less than 0.25" QPF for much of the area (excluding southern parts of the region) through Fri morning. Tomorrow is looking like a relatively minor snowfall on most guidance now. Hopefully a few rounds of steady snow on Fri make up for it. But if the follow up wave fails to deliver I can see how this almost becomes a sub-advisory event for some areas. In my mind I got greedy yesterday and imagined getting the heavy overrunning and the follow up wave. And now it's seems possible that we fail on both. Even the finger of initial light overrunning that most models pointed at us for days also went north of us

It'll be fine. A general 4-6" is likely with higher amounts possible. 

[TheManWithNoFace]

Radar looks good in PA. Should be arriving in NJ a little early. 

[kat5hurricane]

This place is dead. I know it's not a big storm but it just shows how spoiled we've been this year (month really). A potential 4-6 inch storm would have had this place buzzing the last few winters.

[weatherfreeeeak]

Euro?

[sferic]

1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said:

Euro?

In Sullivan county I gained 1/10 of an inch qpf and snow seems more north

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said:

Euro?

More or less same as 12Z run...less than the 18Z...the NYC metro is .35-.45 from north to south today through 00z with that very sharp gradient into CNJ

[RU848789]

All but about 1" of this is on the ground by 7 pm tomorrow.  Certainly good for my house and decent for most in the Philly-NYC area.  That purple stripe could easily hit NYC too.  

[sferic]

Liberty NY in Sullivan County 1:40am

 

light snow has commenced  17.9/11