Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[Nibor]

Just now, jm1220 said:

And Boston NWS went with advisories too, no complaints about them? 

I have lots of complaints about Boston, "generally" speaking.

[jm1220]

That said the Euro is encouraging as is the Nam. Hopefully we can get the thump early on that gets many of us over 6”. Odds are best near the coast. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That said the Euro is encouraging as is the Nam. Hopefully we can get the thump early on that gets many of us over 6”. Odds are best near the coast. 

The Euro has had this issue the last few storms...its tended it seems to be flatter than other guidance until the last 1-2 model cycles and then came north.  Given the pattern I was confused as to why the WAA precip would be shunted east that severely...I had never seen that before in a setup such as this...part of it is the progression of the coastal development but it still seemed to be pushing things too far east.

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, MGorse said:

I am still there. Getting closer to 20 years now. 

That’s amazing. Many move to different forecast offices from time to time. Mount Holly is fortunate to have a meteorologist who has devoted a substantial part of his career to the region. 

[NorthShoreWx]

59 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Classless move by Lee.  This is a tough forecast.  I'm glad no one on here calls out the NWS.  If I see a weenie do that, it won't be pretty.  

Plus, at least part of PHL CWA has different warning criteria.  This is the 12 hour criteria:

[mikem81]

crazy cutofff on the NAM. About .5 precip in NYC/LI and 1 inch of liquid literally 30-40 miles south of LI

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

crazy cutofff on the NAM. About .5 precip in NYC/LI and 1 inch of liquid literally 30-40 miles south of LI

The 3km NAM is basically snow from 16Z to 20Z then sleet.  It’s last few runs have been widely erratic on the start time of the snow.  The only thing it’s consistently been showing is the changeover at 20-21

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 3km NAM is basically snow from 16Z to 20Z then sleet.  It’s last few runs have been widely erratic on the start time of the snow.  The only thing it’s consistently been showing is the changeover at 20-21

And the weird thing is the 3k NAM seems well south of other models with how far north the snow gets. At NYC it has 0.3" liquid by 0z and 1" at Atlantic City. I think it warms up at the mid levels just based on how little heavy precip gets this far north. And it went south from 18z. Regular NAM also went south with how far the good precip makes it-seems like maybe to the LIE and I-78 in NJ? Seems like it jumped on this idea of snow regenerating on Friday adding maybe 1-3" more. 

[mikem81]

The 1 inch liquid line is only 20 miles south of JFK

 

[eduggs]

Finally catching up on today's model guidance. Can't say it looks all that impressive. The initial overrunning has trended less impressive over time as expected but the upstream trof hasn't sharpened up enough to compensate. There is a risk for northern areas that rates/QPF end up fairly minor. The threat for SE areas is mixing. We'll see how it plays out. I wonder if the inverted trof feature might enhance snowfall for some areas as the SLP pulls away on Fri.

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Classless move by Lee.  This is a tough forecast.  I'm glad no one on here calls out the NWS.  If I see a weenie do that, it won't be pretty.  

That damn nws... Nvm. 

On a more serious note, has anyone been looking at the gulf? Things exploding. I wouldn't be surprised to see those 1 inch contours shift north in real time

[SnoSki14]

Just now, USCG RS said:

That damn nws... Nvm. 

On a more serious note, has anyone been looking at the gulf? Things exploding. I wouldn't be surprised to see those 1 inch contours shift north in real time

In almost every instance there's been last second north shifts so I wouldn't be surprised to see one here.

[Brasiluvsnow]

12 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

That damn nws... Nvm. 

On a more serious note, has anyone been looking at the gulf? Things exploding. I wouldn't be surprised to see those 1 inch contours shift north in real time

USCG you have radar link that you can share that I / we can see what you are looking at ? 

[hudsonvalley21]

21 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

That damn nws... Nvm. 

On a more serious note, has anyone been looking at the gulf? Things exploding. I wouldn't be surprised to see those 1 inch contours shift north in real time

The  last few runs of the HRRR is showing the the low in the south further north . The HP to our north has moved west to being directly north of NYC at the US/ Canadian border. could possibly help with the strength with the suppression?

 

[White Gorilla]

38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

In almost every instance there's been last second north shifts so I wouldn't be surprised to see one here.

Some guy in the NE forum says we are all going to be shocked Friday when all of us get over a foot of snow. Says NAM initialized wrong and low is further west than modeled.  Sounds like a wishcast.  This is not from a met! 

[jm1220]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Some guy in the NE forum says we are all going to be shocked Friday when all of us get over a foot of snow. Says NAM initialized wrong and low is further west than modeled.  Sounds like a wishcast.  This is not from a met! 

He's a weenie who predicted widespread 15-20" totals 2 days ago. That ain't happening. 

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

He's a weenie who predicted widespread 15-20" totals 2 days ago. That ain't happening. 

Definitely weenie material 

[David-LI]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

He's a weenie who predicted widespread 15-20" totals 2 days ago. That ain't happening. 

What if he is right? Check US doppler radar vs NAM ....just saying 

[USCG RS]

11 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

The  last few runs of the HRRR is showing the the low in the south further north . The HP to our north has moved west to being directly north of NYC at the US/ Canadian border. could possibly help with the strength with the suppression?

 

Its more about being a strung out mess than suppression here. The stronger the LP, the more it will push N, NW. It has the room at H5. 

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, David-LI said:

What if he is right 

I remember in Feb '87 living in Worcester MA, we got under a blizzard warning for the following day for 18-24.  Woke up next morning with a blizzard warning for only 4-6 (winds were supposed to be fierce with low snow).  Ended up with a dusting.  Models were different back then, but I am waiting for a reverse scenario and have yet to experience it. 

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

What if he is right 

 

[Dan76]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

I remember in Feb '87 living in Worcester MA, we got under a blizzard warning for the following day for 18-24.  Woke up next morning with a blizzard warning for only 4-6 (winds were supposed to be fierce with low snow).  Ended up with a dusting.  Models were different back then, but I am waiting for a reverse scenario and have yet to experience it. 

1 out of 10 maybe happens

[Dan76]

A lot of  Tonight.

[Yanksfan]

8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Some guy in the NE forum says we are all going to be shocked Friday when all of us get over a foot of snow. Says NAM initialized wrong and low is further west than modeled.  Sounds like a wishcast.  This is not from a met! 

Whether it’s wishcasting or not the radar is exploding down south. I would not be surprised to see a northward shift tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Whether it’s wishcasting or not the radar is exploding down south. I would not be surprised to see a northward shift tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

Radar might be exploding but models say a lot of it gets shunted east more than north.  Let's see if the models are underestimating or overestimating other factors 

[Brasiluvsnow]

The location of that 1033 High to our North is key also ,no ? Is that High really more west  ? If so wouldn't it force the low to move East ? To get a better storm where would the ideal location for that High be ?

[SnowGoose69]

15 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I remember in Feb '87 living in Worcester MA, we got under a blizzard warning for the following day for 18-24.  Woke up next morning with a blizzard warning for only 4-6 (winds were supposed to be fierce with low snow).  Ended up with a dusting.  Models were different back then, but I am waiting for a reverse scenario and have yet to experience it. 

There is huge bust potential with this.  I could see a scenario where the metro gets 1-2 inches and I could see them getting 7-9...and I'm talking just in the 13-22Z period tomorrow 

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

They're now calling for 6" expected and 10" high end for my area. Would be nice to see some late magic pump this up just a few inches. 10"+ would be nice here in the HV, although there's less than a 10% chance of that. 

We keep hoping until the fat lady sings. 

[sferic]

1 minute ago, EpicHECS said:

They're now calling for 6" expected and 10" high end for my area. Would be nice to see some late magic pump this up just a few inches. 10"+ would be nice here in the HV, although there's less than a 10% chance of that. 

Hope there is snow love one county north in Sullivan

[Blizzwalker]

That nws event total map is 6 hrs old- from 4 PM.  Hope next such map does not lower amounts