Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro

[SnoSki14]

The trend is your friend. Hopefully we get a nice thump before any changeover.

[eduggs]

That's a nice look on the EC. Snow to ice to dryslot. Not much rain away from the coast. I continue to like a model blend. Less snow, less rain, and more ice. That's almost always how it goes around here with a primary into Western PA. But the EC continues to look encouraging for a snowier outcome.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That's a nice look on the EC. Snow to ice to dryslot. Not much rain away from the coast. I continue to like a model blend. Less snow, less rain, and more ice. That's almost always how it goes around here with a primary into Western PA. But the EC continues to look encouraging for a snowier outcome.

Euro snow map looks similar to the GFSv16

[SnoSki14]

We get a mini arctic intrusion after Tuesdays system which will set the stage for Thursday. 

If it weren't for Tuesday's more amped system this one would've been the big cutter. Still a ways to go though. 

Let's get through Tuesday first.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We get a mini arctic intrusion after Tuesdays system which will set the stage for Thursday. 

If it weren't for Tuesday's more amped system this one would've been the big cutter. Still a ways to go though. 

Let's get through Tuesday first.

The PV also ends up over the lakes

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We get a mini arctic intrusion after Tuesdays system which will set the stage for Thursday. 

If it weren't for Tuesday's more amped system this one would've been the big cutter. Still a ways to go though. 

Let's get through Tuesday first.

that fresh intrusion of arctic air just before the next storm perfect timing yes melting Tuesday and a skating rink Wednesday and then 4 - 6 inches as of now on top of that

[SnowGoose69]

The high position and this system riding up from more directly S or SSW of us at the moment tells me there is potential for a decent front end snow of 4 inches plus even at the coast.

[Rjay]

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I think we'd all be fairly satisfied with this outcome. Nice front end thump and no 50 degree rain.    

[eduggs]

21 minutes ago, Brett said:

Do you think the European is overdone with snow? 

Not much. Maybe by an inch or two with a little more ice. But I think the GFS is a little overdone. I think sub-warning snowfall amounts locally are most likely.

But at this point it's really just guessing.

[wdrag]

12z/14 EPS consistent on a few inches of snow here many cycles i78 corridor northward on Thursday. Might it end up sleet or ZR?  Sure looks nasty Thu night,  with as much ice as Monday night I84 corridor.  And the flood possible problems associated with short duration heavy qpf, snow melt, ice jammed gutters.  Back tomorrow morning. 

[Northof78]

18z GFS still has a cutter end game, but very impressive front end thump for all, prob 4-8/5-10

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

18z GFS still has a cutter end game, but very impressive front end thump for all, prob 4-8/5-10

I had said earlier, anytime you see the GFS seeing front end snows with a system at this range you can take it to the bank that barring some sort of huge synoptic setup change in the ensuing few days that it will happen.   It usually has the coast as snow for 1 hour then over to rain.

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

18z GFS still has a cutter end game, but very impressive front end thump for all, prob 4-8/5-10

18Z GFSv16 is about 4-6 inches for the metro area. Barring something messing up this setup (which I can't discount 4 days out) it looks good for at least a front end thump  

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

18z GFS still has a cutter end game, but very impressive front end thump for all, prob 4-8/5-10

There's a good chance we see a front end dump but would want it to trend a bit colder/more suppressed. 

Sucks that the blocking is gone.

[mikem81]

52 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

18Z GFSv16 is about 4-6 inches for the metro area. Barring something messing up this setup (which I can't discount 4 days out) it looks good for at least a front end thump  

No blocking. Dont see why this wont cut completely like Tuesday will....

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, eduggs said:

That's a nice look on the EC. Snow to ice to dryslot. Not much rain away from the coast. I continue to like a model blend. Less snow, less rain, and more ice. That's almost always how it goes around here with a primary into Western PA. But the EC continues to look encouraging for a snowier outcome.

seems like the storm last December

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how much of a front end thump we can get before changeover with a 591 DM ridge off the SE Coast.

 

what is it going to take to push that ridge out?  why dont ridges move like storms do

 

[HVSnowLover]

20 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

No blocking. Dont see why this wont cut completely like Tuesday will....

Way better antecedent airmass but yes i am still concerned the models are not accurate with the track.

[SnoSki14]

27 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

No blocking. Dont see why this wont cut completely like Tuesday will....

PV overhead whereas Tuesday it's in the Midwest. 

[Northof78]

way early for the NAM, but it has had the hot hand lately....looks quite snowy/cold/south for Thursday

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFS 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS 

Cmc is really further south with the storm and has a secondary low further south.

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is really further south with the storm and has a secondary low further south.

That HP North of New England is being blocked forcing redevelopment of the LP

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is really further south with the storm and has a secondary low further south.

 

Given the NAO the Canadian is probably too optimistic

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

That HP North of NYS is being blocked forcing redevelopment of the LP

Yeah the CMC basically has tomorrow's storm sort of acting as a 50-50

[NEG NAO]

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

That HP North of New England is being blocked forcing redevelopment of the LP

Would be nice but I doubt it. We’re back into a period where the SE ridge is dominating and the blocking or what’s left doesn’t compensate. Nina climo in Feb can only be held off for so long. Should hopefully be a nice 3-6” thump before rain or sleet though. The high can at least make that happen. 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Would be nice but I doubt it. We’re back into a period where the SE ridge is dominating and the blocking or what’s left doesn’t compensate. Nina climo in Feb can only be held off for so long. Should hopefully be a nice 3-6” thump before rain or sleet though. The high can at least make that happen. 

I think its possible as SnowGoose just mentioned the Tuesday storm is acting as a 50/50