Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[EastonSN+]

Anyone have Kuchera EURO?

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Already at seasonal average just want 2 to get me to above average.

Only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century!

1.1 gets BDR To 40 so another 40 plus year to tack onto this impressive run.  And doubt we're done

[SnowGoose69]

I want to see some sort of south shift on the 3k NAM...the HREF/NAM combo argues the Euro is likely a tad too far south tomorrow with the snows which would indicate 4-6 is likely for NYC before any sleet changeover...the sleet changeover if you blend the NAM/Euro is closer to 23-00Z but the amounts are obviously less

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

1.1 gets BDR To 40 so another 40 plus year to tack onto this impressive run.  And doubt we're done

They beat me for the first time! Sitting at 34 here in Easton. Average range 30 to 35.

[mikem81]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Anyone have Kuchera EURO?

[North and West]

I think @MMU we're at about 48" for the year, so I'm cool with things being done after this. 

[Snowzone]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

We have been burned worse by Miller B's though; pretty sure the infamous March 2001, now almost 20 years ago, phased too late for us....

That "storm" was indeed an epic disappointment.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

January 2015 was worse.

Maybe out your way; here, we had two days of school cancelations waiting on 2 feet; we got less than an inch of sleet. It was embarrassing. In Jan 2015 we at least had 6-7 inches out here.

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

We have been burned worse by Miller B's though; pretty sure the infamous March 2001, now almost 20 years ago, phased too late for us....

No matter how many storms we chase, no matter how many winters we'll have, March 2001 takes the title for being the biggest bust in history for snow lovers.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, TriPol said:

No matter how many storms we chase, no matter how many winters we'll have, March 2001 takes the title for being the biggest bust in history for snow lovers.

I remember a dude arguing with the staff at Home Depot because they were out of salt; I said, friend, don't worry about it. You won't need it. He was like what? I said the storm has been canceled. No one there believed me....

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

No matter how many storms we chase, no matter how many winters we'll have, March 2001 takes the title for being the biggest bust in history for snow lovers.

Jan 1989 was also a big bust, because there was no precip at all in most of the area....I guess forecasting has made some strides. 

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I remember a dude arguing with the staff at Home Depot because they were out of salt; I said, friend, don't worry about it. You won't need it. He was like what? I said the storm has been canceled. No one there believed me....

Ah, I forgot. It's almost the 20 year anniversary for this bust. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Ah, I forgot. It's almost the 20 year anniversary for this bust. 

busted twice here...they went big, then went small (2-4 inches) we caught the westenr edge of the precip shield and still got 10  LOL

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Brett said:

I was in 5th grade for that I remember my parents freaking out and buying a new snowblower lol

Bet they didn't need it for another two years; after that, bet they were glad they bought it ( if it still ran; most of them don't when you go to start them up; it's a good idea to take it in for servicing in the fall ).

[Snowzone]

3 minutes ago, Brett said:

I was in 5th grade for that I remember my parents freaking out and buying a new snowblower lol

Wow! I feel so old. That was the year I turned 40.

[uncle W]

i got used to busts growing up in the 1960's...I woke up to a heavy snow warning only to see the Sun out when I looked out my window...probably happened in Jan. 62...One day in Jan 1965 I went to bed with no snow in the forecast and awoke to a heavy snow warning...

[coastalplainsnowman]

20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Jan 1989 was also a big bust, because there was no precip at all in most of the area....I guess forecasting has made some strides. 

Is the one that dropped 18" on Atlantic City and 12" on Montauk but missed NYC metro?  I always remember it being later in the season.

[sferic]

26 minutes ago, TriPol said:

No matter how many storms we chase, no matter how many winters we'll have, March 2001 takes the title for being the biggest bust in history for snow lovers.

100% Correct

[Snowzone]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Is the one that dropped 18" on Atlantic City and 12" on Montauk but missed NYC metro?  I always remember it being later in the season.

I believe that took place around February, 24th.

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah I'll always root for snow but if it turned 50 and sunny for a month after this storm I'd be fine with it.  Even my kids are tired of the snowcover

For sure. Yesterday was 50 for the first time in forever and it felt fantastic, I actually went outside in a hoodie and no jacket for the first time since early December-ish.

As much of a fan of snow I am, I start to look forward to spring as we near March. Especially with everything going on in the world, this has felt like a longer, harder winter than most.

[coastalplainsnowman]

On the flip side, I wonder if anyone here remembers the nearly "reverse bust" that occurred one morning in either 1998 or 1999 (but I think 1998.)  A threat that no one was really talking about at all materialized way offshore, but was enough to give Montauk a 14" blizzard (at least that's what the news was calling it)  while there was literally nothing but cloudiness at the Nassau/Suffolk border.  I still remember watching the radar over my dialup, amazed (and really aggravated) at how how well defined the cutoff was.

 

[Snowzone]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

For sure. Yesterday was 50 for the first time in forever and it felt fantastic, I actually went outside in a hoodie and no jacket for the first time since early December.

As much of a fan of snow I am, I start to look forward to spring as we near March. Especially with everything going on in the world, this has felt like a longer, harder winter than most.

Regardless of how much snow or cold we have had, I'm not fully ready to embrace spring until March 15 - 20.  

[USCG RS]

13 minutes ago, sferic said:

100% Correct

I remember Paul Kocin on the NWS explaining what went wrong later that evening. 

[TheManWithNoFace]

2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I remember all the freaking out before the Sunday storm a few weeks ago with the models and their qpf and the immediate metro area all got the totals upton predicted if not more. Its hard to think a potentially long duration event with cold air in place won't get us to 6-9 inches one way or another.  It's also hard to believe an overrunning setup like this won't get decent snow at least up to NYC.    

They were bailed out by ratios. 

[kat5hurricane]

8 minutes ago, Snowzone said:

Regardless of how much snow or cold we have had, I'm not fully ready to embrace spring until March 15 - 20.  

I will always root for snow, but once I feel that warmth on my face even in February (and yesterday felt really warm) I start to long for spring.

[tdp146]

Couple more weeks and it will that time of year again when a 9 SD block sits on top of us until Memorial day. 

[SnowGoose69]

12KM NAM coming in more S-E with later changeover...definite move towards Euro idea albeit it was a just a nudge...at same time the 12km NAM delayed the sleet change by an hour or so...the 3km isnt in far enough yet 

[winterwx21]

18z NAM Kuchera is pretty much a 6 inch thump for everyone tomorrow. North Jersey, Central Jersey, NYC and LI. Nice run.

[crossbowftw3]

WWA for 3-7 here:

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Pike and Wayne counties. In New York,
  Sullivan county.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact commutes starting with Thursday
  morning.

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

12KM NAM coming in more S-E with later changeover...definite move towards Euro idea albeit it was a just a nudge...at same time the 12km NAM delayed the sleet change by an hour or so...the 3km isnt in far enough yet 

Soundings still show places like EWR going above freezing around 700mb by 20z.