Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[HVSnowLover]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Comical differences on the models this close in. NAM essentially is all front end snow to sleet and most of the GFS snow is from a coastal storm. 

Yes this is becoming a nowcasting event, NAM and GFS are showing entirely different setups (I would probably slightly lean NAM at this range although Euro looked more GFS like)

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

GFS snow map? 

For our area with ratios GFS is 6-8 and V16 is 4-5. 

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

For our area with ratios GFS is 6-8 and V16 is 4-5. 

4-8 is the go to range right now from the folks at Hudson Valley Weather and that seems spot on. 

[HVSnowLover]

CMC is now a miss with the coastal. I would lean NAM has the best handle right now but not super high confidence. 

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

CMC is now a miss with the coastal. I would lean NAM right now but not super high confidence. 

It's a complex setup with low model consensus as a result 

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

4-8 is the go to range right now from the folks at Hudson Valley Weather and that seems spot on. 

I would basically go 4-6 for us. I can't see Albany going to a warning as it may not meet criteria. I could see a wwa for 4-7. 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

I would basically go 4-6 for us. I can't see Albany going to a warning as it may not meet criteria. I could see a wwa for 4-7. 

Criteria for warnings up here is still 8” if I’m not mistaken 

[jm1220]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

Criteria for warnings up here is still 8” if I’m not mistaken 

8” in 24 hours or 6” in 12 hours. 

[Juliancolton]

1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Criteria for warnings up here is still 8” if I’m not mistaken 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Criteria for warnings up here is still 8” if I’m not mistaken 

I think its 7 in 12 hours or 9 in 24 but not 100% sure. 

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

8” in 24 hours or 6” in 12 hours. 

 

 

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

There we go, these were what I was looking for 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

I don't think 5" in 12 hours should warrant a warning in my county. 5" is nothing. 

So many jokes so little time.

[HVSnowLover]

18 minutes ago, Brett said:

It has to be very unusual that these models are disagreeing like this less than a day before a storm

Model disagreement is nothing new, it's been better this winter for the most part this close to an event. The differences between the GFS and NAM for both tomorrow and Friday are laughable right now. 

[kat5hurricane]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Snow always seems to start earlier than expected in these SWFE type storms. 

And always seems to change over quicker as well.

[hudsonvalley21]

33 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

GFS snow map? 

 

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

 

Thanks.  But the v16 is much less I hear 

[jm1220]

GFS v16 and CMC seem to be going toward the sheared mess idea that they had last night. I'm not buying either that the WAA snow push/thump would whiff south of us. I can't think of the last time that's happened. The "safe" guess for NYC right now would probably be 5-7" from this. But crazy differences between models this close in. 

[mikem81]

V16

Regular

 

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Thanks.  But the v16 is much less I hear 

Yea it is by a little, I would go with the NAM from today’s 18z runs and forward.

[mikem81]

The fact that these 2 maps are showing this discrepancy (look at DC area) this close is pretty concerning...

 

[mikem81]

UKMET also just cut precip in half...

[Northof78]

Hate to say it, but this is one of the more obvious outcome storms seen in a while 6-9" seems very high confidence for most of metro regardless of model almost 

[mikem81]

Some call the SE ridge...

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Northof78 said:

Hate to say it, but this is one of the more obvious outcome storms seen in a while 6-9" seems very high confidence for most of metro regardless of model almost 

Yea I remember all the freaking out before the Sunday storm a few weeks ago with the models and their qpf and the immediate metro area all got the totals upton predicted if not more. Its hard to think a potentially long duration event with cold air in place won't get us to 6-9 inches one way or another.  It's also hard to believe an overrunning setup like this won't get decent snow at least up to NYC.    

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

UKMET also just cut precip in half...

12z UKMET showing a nice 6 inch snowstorm for NYC. A few inches from the thursday thump, and a few inches from the prolonged lighter snow that lasts into friday.

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The fact that these 2 maps are showing this discrepancy (look at DC area) this close is pretty concerning...

 

Poor DC. I think NAM will be closer to actual outcome 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, EpicHECS said:

Anyone think these 10"+ amounts in the Hudson Valley come to fruition?

I wouldn’t worry unless you’re up by Albany maybe (being shut out, maybe not 10”). These snow events always seem to sneak their way north of what’s expected and you have the better ratios generally. I don’t see anything really shutting you out. There’s a good 700mb fetch of moisture that should push this north a good ways. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, EpicHECS said:

Anyone think these 7-11" amounts in the Hudson Valley come to fruition? Seems a little bullish, no? 

7-11 might be pushing it but I think our whole subforum should get at least 6

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, EpicHECS said:

6" spread out isn't going to make a big difference. Nearly double that would be a slightly different story. 

It depends what happens with the overrunning. I think the coastal would be too far east to have major impact in the HV even if it happens.  Unfortunately usually the coast has to at least ping for you guys to get the really good snows.    

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

Unless it's a monster, that's kind of true. And in some of our biggest snowfalls it was just flat out raining downtown. There have been exceptions, of course. 

This year we've had some nice events where we pinged but after huge front end thumps and you guys also got clobbered.