Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

 

Clown map

Great hit

[Nibor]

If the ukmet had been less erratic this winter season I'd be more enthusiastic about its run.

[weatherfreeeeak]

Interested to see what the euro does with the evolution based on some of the new trend ideas tonight 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

If the ukmet had been less erratic this winter season I'd be more enthusiastic about its run.

Inside 48 it has not been overly crazy...beyond that it has been. 

[SnoSki14]

6" with this system will be much more impactful than the previous one that hit Sunday. 

Very cold temps likely with this one which will accumulate on roadways and the worst will be during commute times.

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It is mostly snow with barely sleet.

6-10 inch storm looking likely for NYC 

40 inches is also looking  likely

Based on the modeled 850 temps and a likely warm layer above that level, a few tenths are likely lost to sleet overnight Fri for the SE half of the area. I'd call it a 5-8" storm on the UK. Of course final accumulations will always depend on ratios and banding etc.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Do you pick your toes....( famous 70's movie reference for you youngsters )

Gesundheit!

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Yup. In one of the great cinematic performances. 

I must be getting old, or maybe not old enough.  I thought that was Walter Mathau.

[wdrag]

554A: Topic headlines were adjusted from the original of ate last week to the snowier wintry solution. A burst of moderate to briefly heavy snow Thursday, begins lightly between midnight and 6AM  Thursday much of the area, though it may delay a bit to the daylight hours north of I84. QPF etc has decreased since originally threaded. Modeling allows sleet/freezing rain to get involved near the Thursday evening rush hour and eventually back to manageable, possibly intermittent snow on Friday.  Some modeling has a decent burst of snow Friday.  ~Half a foot or more seems likely for much of the area with sleet/freezing rain (even maybe eventually even a bit of rain e LI) limiting the risk of 6" south of I78 and possibly LI as well. Graphics added are WPC 09z ensemble chance of 8"+, chance of .01 freezing rain for the periods indicated (note it's got higher probs southwest Harrisburg, but that would include earlier than the 48 hours shown) and the NWS regional snow forecast through 7PM Friday.   OBS NOWCAST thread will post this evening.

[MJO812]

[weatherpruf]

6 hours ago, eduggs said:

Based on the modeled 850 temps and a likely warm layer above that level, a few tenths are likely lost to sleet overnight Fri for the SE half of the area. I'd call it a 5-8" storm on the UK. Of course final accumulations will always depend on ratios and banding etc.

So a significant storm with modest accumulations made somewhat more hazardous by potential sleet and rain. I'm thinking more like 3-6 based on other storms of this ilk I've witnessed. Sleet could keep it from being higher. But it will still need to be respected. I'd sleep in if possible.

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, Brett said:

GFS 16 cut back amounts some hopefully not a bad sign 

These storms on models always waffle a bit; it looks like there will be a significant event on tap, perhaps the last one for awhile, but it won't be epic. Will still be a slog for lots of people.

[Northof78]

Looks like 6-9” for most in the forum...maybe a little light mix after main thump of precip

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

So a significant storm with modest accumulations made somewhat more hazardous by potential sleet and rain. I'm thinking more like 3-6 based on other storms of this ilk I've witnessed. Sleet could keep it from being higher. But it will still need to be respected. I'd sleep in if possible.

3-6 is a good call or even 4-8 

Today's  runs will be interesting

[MJO812]

Looks like 6 to 7 inches on the Euro for the NYC area with numbers decreasing as you head northward.

[Yanksfan]

1010 Wins calling for a general 6-10 across the area. The Met mentioned there will be a mix occurring in locations by Friday morning but that is subject to change. 

[Shades]

In regard to sleet impacts on road conditions subsequent of snowfall, this can be a treacherous scenario given the cold BL temperatures <32 in affected areas. Treated roads have a much harder time in melting heavy sleet rates than snowfall in many cases. I believe this is partly due to the effects of dendrites being more susceptible to melting given their molecular structure. Sleet is more consolidated/low porosity (solid- if you will), and therefor there is less air pockets (as compared to snowfall) for warming on treated roads. Depending on rates, sleet can compound on treated roads. Sleet atop snow can further stymie the melting process. 

Road conditions with this storm may be a case scenario.

[North and West]

what time is the heaviest snow supposed to occur?
This is really starting to remind you of the first storm in Feb 1994 isn't it?
 

Still one of my all-time favorites.


.

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

Hmmm. That's an awfully unusual setup. Why would there be more snow where all of the mixing is supposed to occur? lol

Think your map might be upside down lol. 

Heavy snow burst before mixing comes in probably. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

Yet nothing is calling for more snow in the city than north and west of it. I don't know where he's getting this from. /scratches head

Most models show more qpf for nyc metro than say around 84. CMC, Euro, V16, Nam all show that. Although we may indeed receive less qpf the ratios will be higher in 13-15:1 range and mixing is unlikely so at the end of the day everybody should see around 6 inches with a few slightly higher amounts. 

[crossbowftw3]

24 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Most models show more qpf for nyc metro than say around 84. CMC, Euro, V16, Nam all show that. Although we may indeed receive less qpf the ratios will be higher in 13-15:1 range and mixing is unlikely so at the end of the day everybody should see around 6 inches with a few slightly higher amounts. 

Longer duration of lighter snows up here can also help us get to that same level of snow as NYC as well

[Blizzardo]

No NAM posts? 

[David-LI]

Just now, Blizzardo said:

No NAM posts? 

It seems to have cut back on totals a bit. Also the totals on this map includes sleet.

[romba]

NAM Kuchera

 

[Northof78]

Again, every model has been very steady over past 1-2 days with a 6-10" storm for the metro, a little mix after the main show. NAM continues this.,..

[Blizzardo]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

It seems to have cut back on totals a bit. Also the totals on this map includes sleet.

Still an 8-10 swipe right through NJ...I take...

[crossbowftw3]

Wouldn’t be shocked if BGM issues high end WWAs for 4-7 if taking today’s runs into account

[jm1220]

You can't discount the NAM getting warmer aloft. It's usually superior to other models sniffing out these warm layers that can mean changing over. Last two runs have gotten a little warmer in mid levels, no doubting that. It's north of other models generally but there's often a last minute north trend anyway. RGEM at 6z was also a good bit north it seemed. 

[SnoSki14]

6-8" looking good right now. Surface temps will be very cold (low to mid 20s). 

I could see some places nearing 10" but that's highly dependent on mixing. There will likely be a few hours of 2-3"+ hourly rates though. 

[HVSnowLover]

Honestly wouldn't mind a little sleet mixing in, that would help preserve snowpack through March.