Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[Ericjcrash]

4 hours ago, sferic said:

@crossbowftw3 @snywx @Ericjcrash Early calls if all goes right? For Sullivan I think 8-12

6-12" is a good call, I know it's wide but still...

[NJwx85]

Still think most here will get 4-8" with 10" locally.

Not that it really matters here. My snowpack is still over a foot deep in most places. 

Even with hitting 54 here today it didn't do much. I think I have a glacier in my yard.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Still think most here will get 4-8" with 10" locally.

Not that it really matters here. My snowpack is still over a foot deep in most places. 

Even with hitting 54 here today it didn't do much. I think I have a glacier in my yard.

tonight's cold will turn it all to cement....

[NEG NAO]

Winter Storm Watches issued by Mt. Holly for most of its NJ zones

WSW from KPHI (cod.edu)

ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu)

[Northof78]

NAM is a big hit...all snow through the first wave; with 1"+ QPF

[David-LI]

18z NAM colder,

We are about to get Nam'd

[Greg g]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Winter Storm Watches issued by Mt. Holly for most of its NJ zones

WSW from KPHI (cod.edu)

ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu)

So we can expect Upton to post watches later on today at some point 

[SnoSki14]

That's a nice cold Nam run. It's still a tad out of range though.

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

That's a nice cold Nam run. It's still a tad out of range though.

we're under 48 hrs out so it's not too far out of range....

[sferic]

49 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

6-12" is a good call, I know it's wide but still...

Plus next Monday's? what a base we'll have

[NEG NAO]

[Juturna]

What do you think the timeline is for snow to begin/will be heaviest in the metro area?

[weathermedic]

Upton posted watches. 4-8 for the city

[crossbowftw3]

Watch up for 5-8 in Sullivan. Reasonable. Long duration overall should help this be much easier to keep up with.

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Watch up for 5-8 in Sullivan. Reasonable. Long duration overall should help this be much easier to keep up with.

If this works out for us and Monday works for us we will have a  BIG base. Not too much lost over night into today.

Tonight everything will be frozen rock solid into place into the start of Thursday's even

[David-LI]

16 minutes ago, Juturna said:

What do you think the timeline is for snow to begin/will be heaviest in the metro area?

Very preliminary but according to 18z NAM we could see our first flakes early Thursday morning around 7-8 am with the heavier precipitation between 10am and 4pm.

[RU848789]

Updated maps; watches everywhere except SENJ.  Fun times ahead...

 

[crossbowftw3]

17 minutes ago, sferic said:

If this works out for us and Monday works for us we will have a  BIG base. Not too much lost over night into today.

Tonight everything will be frozen rock solid into place into the start of Thursday's even

good to lock in a new snowpack as the pattern will go into remission for the rest of the month

[mikem81]

RGEM looks solid

 

[mikem81]

[SnoSki14]

I like 6-10" right now though that's highly dependent on when the sleet arrives.

The lower end looks likely.

[mikem81]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I like 6-10" right now though that's highly dependent on when the sleet arrives.

The lower end looks likely.

I think its more dependent on where the first shot of precip sets up

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Looks as if the new Euro just coming in is going with the longer duration snow event scenario. The first wave thursday gives heavier snow just to our south. A lot for central/southern Jersey. But the snow is reloading for thursday night ... accumulating snow still going on here into early friday morning. Despite the heaviest of the first wave thursday going just to our south, we still end up getting a good 6 inches up here due to the lighter snow continuing into friday morning.

looks like it also makes it to the south shore of long island!

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Brett said:

The local stations seem to be going 4 to 6 for the most part

Lee Goldberg 5-10 widespread

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess the takeaway from today’s guidance is that even coastal sections can get 6” before the sleet arrives.

not so sure any sleet is going to arrive and Goldberg even mentioned our south shore might be in the jackpot zone with or without any mixing.

any mixing will be too little too late

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brett said:

Looks like the mixing makes it pretty far north of the city

its going to mix very late and wont even matter much

 

[jm1220]

We have the well placed WAA that brings the heavy snow in on Thu like a wall that makes the 6” totals possible near the coast. If the heavy snow is more scattered or the main WAA is aimed NW of the city, amounts will be less. As usual I think it’s 90-95% chance that at least the city will go to sleet at some point and probably rain. But by then a lot may have fallen already. 

[Rjay]

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We have the well placed WAA that brings the heavy snow in on Thu like a wall that makes the 6” totals possible near the coast. If the heavy snow is more scattered or the main WAA is aimed NW of the city, amounts will be less. As usual I think it’s 90-95% chance that at least the city will go to sleet at some point and probably rain. But by then a lot may have fallen already. 

right it doesn't really matter if it's all snow or not, NYC will probably still get to 40".

People stress out too much on everything that falls being snow, you dont need that to have a big snowstorm.

 

[Nibor]

Just now, Brett said:

I hope this is not one of those where we go over to mix way quicker than what is expected I do not like the looks of the model above that shows the mixing getting that far north of the city

It's going to mix. Just accept it as an eventuality.