Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

Liberty NY in Sullivan County 1:40am

 

light snow has commenced  17.9/11

Time for that OBS thread then 

[sferic]

8 minutes ago, sferic said:

Liberty NY in Sullivan County 1:40am

 

light snow has commenced  17.9/11

Dusting already, Steady Light Snow

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

Classless move by Lee.  This is a tough forecast.  I'm glad no one on here calls out the NWS.  If I see a weenie do that, it won't be pretty.  

Yeah I mean this is the same guy who said our latest snow was in late May, which was actually hail.  This storm (and this entire week) has been a tough forecast.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

And Boston NWS went with advisories too, no complaints about them? 

It's interesting how  this storm is viewed differently by different mets.  Mr G, who is ancient, but the only one remaining from the old era of mets we grew up with on TV, said this is basically a two wave snowfall, with the first wave delivering 1-3 on Thursday and the second wave delivering 1-3 on Friday and thats the reason it's a WWA.  

[sferic]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's interesting how  this storm is viewed differently by different mets.  Mr G, who is ancient, but the only one remaining from the old era of mets we grew up with on TV, said this is basically a two wave snowfall, with the first wave delivering 1-3 on Thursday and the second wave delivering 1-3 on Friday and thats the reason it's a WWA.  

If ancient means longevity then yes

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There was a guy on this forum several years back who posted 3-4 days out from a storm that looked like a 1-2 incher at best it would be 8-12 inches and ended up correct.  I'll never forget that.

he came from the future!

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Hence why I was concerned about the strung out mess possibility ruining the whole system. Lousy WAA shunted east event and coastal system getting going too late. Honestly I have no clue what to expect tomorrow or Fri. Good luck to the meteorologists paid to make these calls. “Straightforward” I guess not with these 0z models so far. 

that 1-3 on Thursday and 1-3 on Friday from two waves could turn out to be correct then?

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, sferic said:

If ancient means longevity then yes

I'll never forget how accurate he was in 93-94, with many of those 30 plus storms we had that season.

He would do a 10:45 update with new model data the night before the storm and talk about how the storm would be more icy/snowy than anyone else was predicting and changeovers would be delayed and turned out to be correct.

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'll never forget how accurate he was in 93-94, with many of those 30 plus storms we had that season.

He would do a 10:45 update with new model data the night before the storm and talk about how the storm would be more icy/snowy than anyone else was predicting and changeovers would be delayed and turned out to be correct.

He originally got his fame by predicting way in advance with when the first measurable date snow would fall for the 1980-81 winter; he nailed the date a month in advance on WCBS TV2

[sferic]

Liberty NY 1/2 inch on ground as of 2:30AM

[sferic]

Currently in Liberty NY

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'll never forget how accurate he was in 93-94, with many of those 30 plus storms we had that season.

He would do a 10:45 update with new model data the night before the storm and talk about how the storm would be more icy/snowy than anyone else was predicting and changeovers would be delayed and turned out to be correct.

“wet not white”

”some snow or Some Snow?”

“Back to you Kaity...”

”Thanks G...”

[MJO812]

Models are already busting

There will be 2 waves  if the Nam and GFS are correct. 

[tim]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Models are already busting

There will be 2 waves 

...whatcha mean Ant?

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, tim said:

...whatcha mean Ant?

Radar is more north than what the models showed at 0z and now the 6z runs have come more north with the precip . There will also be a followup  wave behind it ( coastal) but not alot of precip with it. 

[justinj]

4-7 is the call now for Long Island according to the new winter weather advisory update around 4am

[MJO812]

Parts of Central NJ already have 4 inches

[pstar3182]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Parts of Central NJ already have 4 inches

I got about 2.5 in Avon 

[SACRUS]

22 / 21 mod - hvy snow 3.5  on the ground.

[jm1220]

Snow is trying to make a push north in NJ/PA. That should hopefully be enough to get it into the Hudson Valley and CT. 

If you go to the Central PA/State College radar and track the heavy snow near Harrisburg, it's headed ENE and should swipe many of us. 

[MJO812]

This is faster than modeled and some places aren't even in the heavy bands yet.

[tim]

...very light snow out here..temp steady @ 28.4*.

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is faster than modeled and some places aren't even in the heavy bands yet.

Do you have the link to monitor where sleet is.

[MJO812]

Round 1 on the Nam 

[sferic]

Closing in on 2 inches Liberty NY, I can't see us reaching the 6 which is progged. Radar not good to our southwest

 

Agreed @Ericjcrash @crossbowftw3?   @snywx( You could easily see more)

[snywx]

Just now, sferic said:

Closing in on 2 inches Liberty NY, I can't see us reaching the 6 which is progged. Radar not good to our southwest

 

Agreed @Ericjcrash @crossbowftw3?   @snywx( You could easily see more)

What’s funny is most 12z guidance continues to harp on the HV receiving 6-8”

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, snywx said:

What’s funny is most 12z guidance continues to harp on the HV receiving 6-8”

Part 2 is later so maybe then?

[snywx]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Part 2 is later so maybe then?

That’s what it’s starting to look like. Time will tell I guess 

[sferic]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

That’s what it’s starting to look like. Time will tell I guess 

Hope so, it ain't over until it's over

[Tatamy]

12z HREF