Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[the_other_guy]

I never had a winter weather advisory for 5 to 9 inches before.

 

Guess they know something we don’t

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I don't think Phlly got anything from Feb 1989.  I lived about 15 miles N and W of the city at the time and it was bone dry. Woke up to sun shining dimly through the overcast-knew it was over right away....

 

PHL got nothing.  The snow band got to about WRI/NEL and that was all...as a matter of fact WRI I think got 3-4 inches in one hour and then the snow band immediately kicked east again...that was when the NYC NWS and most private sector forecasters realized it was not gonna happen

[Brian5671]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

I never had a winter weather advisory for 5 to 9 inches before.

 

Guess they know something we don’t

$1000 says we wake up tomorrow and there's at least some warnings

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

PHL got nothing.  The snow band got to about WRI/NEL and that was all...as a matter of fact WRI I think got 3-4 inches in one hour and then the snow band immediately kicked east again...that was when the NYC NWS and most private sector forecasters realized it was not gonna happen

1989...
A total of 33 cities in the Ern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date,
and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from GA to Srn New England.
Snowfall totals in NJ ranged up to 24" in Cape May Co, with 19" reported at ACY.
Totals in NC ranged up to 18" in Gates County, and winds along the coast of NC
gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard
conditions at Chatham, MA. (NWS) (SD)

[justinj]

I think everyone is still a bit unsure. 3-4” is still on the table as is 6-10

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I never had a winter weather advisory for 5 to 9 inches before.

 

Guess they know something we don’t

Comes down to duration. 

Need to hit 6 inches avg in 12 hours or 8 inches average in 24. 

The average of 5-9 is 7. So it falls short as this is longer than 12 hrs. 

[hooralph]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

1989...
A total of 33 cities in the Ern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date,
and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from GA to Srn New England.
Snowfall totals in NJ ranged up to 24" in Cape May Co, with 19" reported at ACY.
Totals in NC ranged up to 18" in Gates County, and winds along the coast of NC
gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard
conditions at Chatham, MA. (NWS) (SD)

Not to take us down memory lane, but that remains my #1 weather event because we had the fortune to drive through the height of that going from MA to FL for Christmas. We were in a 4WD GMC Suburban... picked up some people stranded on the side of the road on I-95 in NC.

[mikem81]

After decreasing from 1.25-1/35 QPF from last night's runs to around .65-.7; on the 18Z, you gotta think the NAM trends back North just a  bit at 0Z??

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Not to take us down memory lane, but that remains my #1 weather event because we had the fortune to drive through the height of that going from MA to FL for Christmas. We were in a 4WD GMC Suburban... picked up some people stranded on the side of the road on I-95 in NC.

Wrong storm.  You're thinking Dec 89 not Feb 89

[wishcast_hater]

Winter Weather Advisory for 3-5 inches of snow for Dutchess. Initially was under a Winter Storm Watch.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Brett said:

Read that the European is also mild. Model wars lol

One thing is March can be mild AND snowy due to volatility.

I believe it was 50 degrees before the blizzard big 1888. Extreme example but that's March for you. 

EPS is in the middle between GEFS and GEPS. 

Flip a coin as they say.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Brett said:

Just looked at the RGEM on piviotal and it is not as optimistic as the NAM seems it cut back a bit too

It has maybe 4-5 inches before 00Z in NYC...its way later on start time but the HRRR is moving that direction too that 14-15Z could be when this starts...this event has pretty massive bust potential because if we get fringed we likely never flip to sleet at all but might snow for 30 hours.  If the Euro is 30 miles too far south we might see 7 inches before 4pm but then inevitably if the warm advection precip is more north we flip to sleet by 4pm

[Brian5671]

RGEM is 4-6 inches

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Winter Weather Advisory for 3-5 inches of snow for Dutchess. Initially was under a Winter Storm Watch.

Lee Goldberg just called out Upton, it was awesome.  He said Mt Holly handled it right with the Winter Storm Warning and Upton divided the storm into two different time periods (Thursday and Friday) when in fact most of the event will occur on Thursday.  He said better coordination is needed between the offices and what Upton did was "confusing."

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Lee Goldberg just called out Upton, it was awesome.  He said Mt Holly handled it right with the Winter Storm Warning and Upton divided the storm into two different time periods (Thursday and Friday) when in fact most of the event will occur on Thursday.  He said better coordination is needed between the offices and what Upton did was "confusing."

 

He should talk. His totals are often very low. He was calling for 6-10 in early feb when it was clear that the city was going to get 12-18. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Lee Goldberg just called out Upton, it was awesome.  He said Mt Holly handled it right with the Winter Storm Warning and Upton divided the storm into two different time periods (Thursday and Friday) when in fact most of the event will occur on Thursday.  He said better coordination is needed between the offices and what Upton did was "confusing."

 

YEah I would think they would coordinate with them especially for the counties that adjoin the next forecast area

[LibertyBell]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

He should talk. His totals are often very low. He was calling for 6-10 in early feb when it was clear that the city was going to get 12-18. 

yup and this time he's going for 5-9, down from 6-10 yesterday

 

[mikem81]

[L.I.Pete]

49 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Not to take us down memory lane, but that remains my #1 weather event because we had the fortune to drive through the height of that going from MA to FL for Christmas. We were in a 4WD GMC Suburban... picked up some people stranded on the side of the road on I-95 in NC.

 

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wrong storm.  You're thinking Dec 89 not Feb 89

I got stuck in a hotel at South of the Border (NC/SC) for a couple of days on the way from NY to Ft. Lauderdale in the December '89 storm...took two hours to travel the last 10 miles and I-95 was closed the next day. Remember watching playoff football at the hotel, getting trashed at South of the Border and shooting off fireworks in the snow.

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

High res models are beginning to indicate it could be a case of the area starting to snow not til 14-15Z and then within 60-90 mins of onset immediately going to a period of mod-heavy with most accumulation occurring in 2-3 hours 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

Does it? Not really...

I've been in this part of NJ for some fall rain/wind nor'easters that were pretty crazy, though. Played football in one back in like 1996 or 1997, too. TONS of rain and flooding, with winds that basically made the game unplayable. 

Monmouth county?  It does a lot, there's a local maximum there and they average more snow than NYC (around 30 inches or a little over).

For the Boxing Day blizzard Dec 2010 they had 30"  We only got that here in Jan 2016.

I'm jealous of them even though I'm north of them.

Storms like Feb 1961 (25 inches here vs 15 inches NYC) , Feb 94, Millenium storm 2000, etc, include storms that mixed but delivered higher snowfall totals on the south shore of LI (I use JFK totals) vs NYC.  More total precip makes up for some mixing.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, L.I.Pete said:

 

I got stuck in a hotel at South of the Border (NC/SC) for a couple of days on the way from NY to Ft. Lauderdale in the December '89 storm...took two hours to travel the last 10 miles and I-95 was closed the next day. Remember watching playoff football at the hotel, getting trashed at South of the Border and shooting off fireworks in the snow.

any idea why the snowfall forecast was such a big bust?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EpicHECS said:

Just to throw this event in there since you guys seem to remember every event ever: Feb 27-29th (?) 2010. Retrograding low that left almost all of New England with a blinding rainstorm and the entire Hudson Valley of NY blanketed with as much as 40-50" of snow? That was the most wild winter weather I have ever seen around here, in all reality. I've never seen snow add up that fast, and remain that persistent, for so long. With winds that were gusting legitimately over 40mph+, the drifts were just extreme by the time the event was over. Historic storm for NYS. 

one of my favorite of all time!

the way that rain/snow line set up was highly reminiscent of the Blizzard of 1888 (ever seen a snowfall map of that?) and the Millenium storm in Dec 2000!

 

[LibertyBell]

That was the storm that made up for the early Feb 2010 disaster that gave Toms River 24 inches and us 50 miles to the north just 2 inches, got the Feb record despite that.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EpicHECS said:

No, I realize this part of Jersey very often (if not usually) gets more snow than NYC itself but...NYC gets nothing compared to just north and west of it (and into CT). You do realize that, don't you? Central Jersey is *way* below the seasonal average of these locales. 

Yes it is, but I've always been jealous of what they get vs NYC and W LI

They're a local coastal jackpot zone

[Tatamy]

21z RAP

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EpicHECS said:

It's terribly underrated simply because the big cities were all rain. It was a true blizzard west of that. 

NYC got 20 inches with that storm.  New England was mostly rain but had hurricane force winds.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EpicHECS said:

I don't remember NYC getting that much but I'll always remember the winds. But if this is so, why is this storm mentioned so rarely? It outdoes so many others over the years. 

We mention it a lot here, we call it the Snowicane.

Someone even made a username with that handle lol

 

[Dan76]

Memory lame lol

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

Exactly. I lost power pretty early on in this, too. I've never been stuck inside for longer following any other storm anywhere. 

You know one day we're going to see something like this but with all snow in the entire northeast. Like some huge stripe north and west of the big cities with 3'+, monster drifts. It's just a matter of time. 

Speaking of coastal Jersey hits: December 2010. 36" at Brick NJ, extreme drifts. Isn't that this area's #1 snowfall ever? 

I shudder and shiver to think what will happen if we get a Sandy-esque storm that's snow.....power outage for 25 hours with temps in the 20s?  Cant live in those conditions.  And the high winds bring that cold right inside.....

I think so, doesn't seem official (local observer?) but 36" is the highest amount I've ever seen listed for NJ.