Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[Santa Claus]

not gonna lie boys, i live for the snow thump.

yes yes we are all super enthusiasts who enjoy 2 inch rainstorms, 24 inch snowstorms, and probably a few of you are legally insane and enjoy those days in the winter where it just blows 40 mph of 0% humidity freezer burn air onto your face the entire day.

but more than anything i love that one hour of atmospheric puke.  is it snow?  here's 3"/hr.  is it lightning?  it's falling all around you for the next 15 minutes.

gimme gimme that sweet convection.

[TheManWithNoFace]

  On 2/17/2021 at 1:24 AM, Will - Rutgers said:

not gonna lie boys, i live for the snow thump.

yes yes we are all super enthusiasts who enjoy 2 inch rainstorms, 24 inch snowstorms, and probably a few of you are legally insane and enjoy those days in the winter where it just blows 40 mph of 0% humidity freezer burn air onto your face the entire day.

but more than anything i love that one hour of atmospheric puke.  is it snow?  here's 3"/hr.  is it lightning?  it's falling all around you for the next 15 minutes.

gimme gimme that sweet convection.

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awww yissssss.
Uh, 31 in Flemington rn

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/17/2021 at 1:24 AM, Will - Rutgers said:

not gonna lie boys, i live for the snow thump.

yes yes we are all super enthusiasts who enjoy 2 inch rainstorms, 24 inch snowstorms, and probably a few of you are legally insane and enjoy those days in the winter where it just blows 40 mph of 0% humidity freezer burn air onto your face the entire day.

but more than anything i love that one hour of atmospheric puke.  is it snow?  here's 3"/hr.  is it lightning?  it's falling all around you for the next 15 minutes.

gimme gimme that sweet convection.

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There is treatment available for this. 

[rclab]

  On 2/17/2021 at 1:46 AM, weatherpruf said:

There is treatment available for this. 

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The little blue pill is expensive. As always ....

[Northof78]

NAM is a lot of snow for majority of forum...9-13"; although once north of 84 gets iffy with confluence and tight gradient 

[Juliancolton]

  On 2/17/2021 at 2:28 AM, Northof78 said:

NAM is a lot of snow for majority of forum...9-13"; although once north of 84 gets iffy with confluence and tight gradient 

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That's when we do some of our best work.

[jm1220]

  On 2/17/2021 at 2:28 AM, Northof78 said:

NAM is a lot of snow for majority of forum...9-13"; although once north of 84 gets iffy with confluence and tight gradient 

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This is through hr57. Looks like maybe at the very end and when precip is light there can be some sleet near the coast on this run but as you can see it doesn't make a difference in accums. Far northern people may be sweating a little but these always have banding north of where the snow is supposed to stop.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

  On 2/17/2021 at 2:31 AM, jm1220 said:

This is through hr57. Looks like maybe at the very end and when precip is light there can be some sleet near the coast on this run but as you can see it doesn't make a difference in accums. Far northern people may be sweating a little but these always have banding north of where the snow is supposed to stop.  

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And ratios are probably going to be 15:1. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

It can stop trending south now.

[Jt17]

This has to be the slowest this forum has been less than 2 days before what's looking like an 8-12 inch mostly snow event for the entire sub-forum lol!

[White Gorilla]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:11 AM, Jt17 said:

This has to be the slowest this forum has been less than 2 days before what's looking like an 8-12 inch mostly snow event for the entire sub-forum lol!

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Getting a sinking 2-4 inch feeling up here north of 84.  Whiff city. 

[Jt17]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:14 AM, Torch said:

8 to 12 nyc?

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Certainly seems to have trended that way.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:15 AM, White Gorilla said:

Getting a sinking 2-4 inch feeling up here north of 84.  Whiff city. 

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Nam has Poughkeepsie area in .5-.6 qpf with temps in lows 20's throughout. That could easily translate to 7-9 inches of snow.

[White Gorilla]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:20 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Nam has Poughkeepsie are in .5-.6 qpf with temps in lows 20's throughout. That could easily translate in 7-9 inches of snow.

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Yeah, I do forget about ratios.  Let's see what other guidance shows.  Still several model cycles to go.  Hopefully we all cash in. 

[SnoSki14]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:15 AM, White Gorilla said:

Getting a sinking 2-4 inch feeling up here north of 84.  Whiff city. 

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Seems like most events ticked north in the end so wouldn't be surprised to see that again.

However the last mini snow event did stay south and never really ticked north.

I feel good about this one here bc even north ticks would likely result in a 6" front-end thump. 

[MJO812]

Rgem is anemic on the front end but develops the coastal closer this run 

[Nibor]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:11 AM, Jt17 said:

This has to be the slowest this forum has been less than 2 days before what's looking like an 8-12 inch mostly snow event for the entire sub-forum lol!

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Just complain you're not getting as much snow as you were in the previous model cycle and that'll cause a stir.

[eduggs]

  On 2/16/2021 at 4:43 PM, HeadInTheClouds said:

ICON is trash especially with thermals. It had rain to Canada with last nights event. 

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ICON data output isn't compatible with 3rd party vendor ptype algorithms. So ip/zr is shown as rain.

[chrisNJ]

Crap graphics but was surprised by the bullish SREF mean at 21z. 

[White Gorilla]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:28 AM, Nibor said:

Just complain you're not getting as much snow as you were in the previous model cycle and that'll cause a stir.

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Works everytime.  

[HVSnowLover]

Probably safe to change the title of this thread at this point. This is going to replenish the snowpack not destroy it lol 

[hudsonvalley21]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:20 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Nam has Poughkeepsie area in .5-.6 qpf with temps in lows 20's throughout. That could easily translate to 7-9 inches of snow.

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That’s it, I’m moving to Poughkeepsie. 

[White Gorilla]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:45 AM, hudsonvalley21 said:

That’s it, I’m moving to Poughkeepsie. 

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Not worth it for the ratios, lol.  

[eduggs]

The trof axis is still west of us on Friday (from 18z GFS), with a bit of a vortmax down near the Gulf coast and a pretty sharp trof. Yes the strongest baroclinicity is already offshore, but with this look we're not so far away from regenerating coastal snow bands throughout much of the day on Friday.

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:45 AM, hudsonvalley21 said:

That’s it, I’m moving to Poughkeepsie. 

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Do you pick your toes....( famous 70's movie reference for you youngsters )

[hudsonvalley21]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:21 AM, White Gorilla said:

Yeah, I do forget about ratios.  Let's see what other guidance shows.  Still several model cycles to go.  Hopefully we all cash in. 

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General model consensus. Watches were posted up with basically 48 hours to start time. 

[eduggs]

30hr + event on the GFS. Possibly not all snow and there could be a few breaks in the precip. Still could be fun.

[HVSnowLover]

  On 2/17/2021 at 3:52 AM, eduggs said:

30hr + event on the GFS. Possibly not all snow and there could be a few breaks in the precip. Still could be fun.

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Not that I think this will happen but this event could be even bigger if the coastal moisture gets cranking on Friday 

[eduggs]

There's a sweet theoretical scenario where we get a period of heavy snow midday Thurs. indicated by fgen charts on the NAM with limited mixing shown on the EC and the longer duration Fri snow of the CMC and now even GFS. There's a wishcast for you.

I like the NWS snowfall forecasts where they are now. I think we get at least a few hours of moderate snow on Thursday probably followed by sleet NW and/or ZR/rain SE. I think the longer duration idea is real, but whether or not it amounts to anything and temps are cold enough remains to be seen. Let's see which way it trends.

[eduggs]

I think we are seeing a subtle trend of weakening the initial WAA precipitation in connection with the dampening of the initial shortwave moving through the midwest and Lakes region on Thurs. At the same time we are seeing an increase in precipitation back to the south and west overnight Thurs into Fri as more energy in the trof is left upstream. I think there's a good chance these trends continue.

With a moist Gulf of Mexico connection I'm hoping we get the best of both scenarios: light to moderate overrunning snow on Thurs and then lingering light (pos moderate?) snow into the day Friday.