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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event


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  On 2/16/2021 at 2:53 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Main point is that Nam which is the most amped up model continues to trend colder.

It almost looks like warmer, more inland version of PD II with overrunning then coastal. 

If the 12z suite holds or trends colder then we'll see watch this afternoon.

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Coastal areas want the non NAM progression.  The NAM is still more west and north, particularly as the system crosses through areas 24-36 hours before reaching the area.  Coastal areas in these setups always want the main WAA precip to be approaching at an angle of 180-200 or so...if the setup is aligned so that its coming from more W-SW than that your system is tracking more west than you want and the main WAA is going to your NW.  

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  On 2/16/2021 at 2:50 PM, bluewave said:

The forecast soundings look a little better this morning. Maybe we could sneak in a 3-6” front end thump at the coast before the sleet arrives. The high over New England is positioned better. We’ll see if we can hold this in coming days.

21DE141E-1B96-458A-AB15-CDCD67F36B98.thumb.png.399240b014f5f998f5d152cc189a9264.png


02A6C58E-A22C-4A6A-96B0-984099E7F3D1.thumb.png.5b65b67380e0b79d017bdbf5b4cca213.png

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Colder version of the December storm  coming 

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  On 2/16/2021 at 2:58 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

Coastal areas want the non NAM progression.  The NAM is still more west and north, particularly as the system crosses through areas 24-36 hours before reaching the area.  Coastal areas in these setups always want the main WAA precip to be approaching at an angle of 180-200 or so...if the setup is aligned so that its coming from more W-SW than that your system is tracking more west than you want and the main WAA is going to your NW.  

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If the 12z NAM is correct the WAA snow is going to come in like a wall on Thursday afternoon.

k81XSw6.gif

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  On 2/16/2021 at 3:09 PM, NJwx85 said:

If the 12z NAM is correct the WAA snow is going to come in like a wall on Thursday afternoon.

k81XSw6.gif

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The 700mb jet on the NAM is more NW than most other models...at this stage I would have to assume it is wrong given its an outlier and its beyond its best range.  That axis of orientation of the 700 jet though is more favorable for areas NW of NYC

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Hopefully those models are correct that there could be heavy banding and the snow comes in solidly. As others pointed out the problem in Dec was there was a few hours of good snow then the snow shredded up and warm air took over. I agree that most will change over to no -snow eventually-rain near the coast and sleet inland. Any of these setups where we’re sweating the mid level low tracks end in changeovers. 

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  On 2/16/2021 at 3:21 PM, jm1220 said:

Hopefully those models are correct that there could be heavy banding and the snow comes in solidly. As others pointed out the problem in Dec was there was a few hours of good snow then the snow shredded up and warm air took over. I agree that most will change over to no -snow eventually-rain near the coast and sleet inland. Any of these setups where we’re sweating the mid level low tracks end in changeovers. 

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In December Ocean Temps were 15 degrees warmer......Big difference this time of year

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  On 2/16/2021 at 3:21 PM, jm1220 said:

Hopefully those models are correct that there could be heavy banding and the snow comes in solidly. As others pointed out the problem in Dec was there was a few hours of good snow then the snow shredded up and warm air took over. I agree that most will change over to no -snow eventually-rain near the coast and sleet inland. Any of these setups where we’re sweating the mid level low tracks end in changeovers. 

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Long Island will always change over in December on that set up. You guys forgot  where you live after a few good years. Climo 

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  On 2/16/2021 at 3:20 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The 700mb jet on the NAM is more NW than most other models...at this stage I would have to assume it is wrong given its an outlier and its beyond its best range.  That axis of orientation of the 700 jet though is more favorable for areas NW of NYC

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I don't know how people are making such definitive statements about anything at this stage of the game. Right now I would say 12"+ is just as likely as nothing.

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