Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[SleetStormNJ]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just hoping for one more 5-6" event to put us over 40" and wrap this winter up. 

Things are looking more spring-like post 2/20-21. 

We've had some volatile swings in late February into March over past 10 years (last year notwithstanding, but 2017 had some cold spells and a significant storm, 2018 a couple, and a bunch in 2019).  Even back into 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 had some March events too.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The NAM did well for me. I got 4” on December 16-17 and the NAM nailed the early change to sleet. 

wow you got about half of what the western part of the south shore got.  Thats why you need to live in Nassau County to stop the taint from the ocean- or limit it anyway.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just hoping for one more 5-6" event to put us over 40" and wrap this winter up. 

Things are looking more spring-like post 2/20-21. 

what do you think about the Monday event?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SleetStormNJ said:

We've had some volatile swings in late February into March over past 10 years (last year notwithstanding, but 2017 had some cold spells and a significant storm, 2018 a couple, and a bunch in 2019).  Even back into 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 had some March events too.

March 2015 was my heaviest March event since 2009.  We had a 6" in April 2018 too.  I like April snows more than March ones.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the NAM should start getting into its better range Tuesday into Wednesday. The globals usually underestimate warming at 700-850 mb when its an issue. It seems like when models like the Euro, GFS, and CMC have -1 to -2 between 700 and 850mb, it usually verifies as 0 to +1 and we start getting sleet.

I think we should be good for a 4 inch snow here.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

Yeah the big takeaway from recent trends is that we are moving away from the big washout finale scenario. Hopefully we can minimize or even eliminate the change to rain. I'm still skeptical of warning level snows. I think most everyone starts with several hours of snow on Thursday. How heavy it gets will probably be a nowcast. But I still expect sleet to arrive quickly. Hopefully this ends as a mix to dryslot and not rain.

sleet wont arrive until nightfall

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

First wave maxes out to the south. Then the main storm comes in and it's lighter and flips quick.

what if the first wave comes farther north than expected?
thats been the theme of the winter

 

[eduggs]

Great run from the RGEM. Not a huge change from previous CMC runs. Very little rain if any. Significant snow over 6-10 hours followed by sleet and probably ending as drizzle or zr.

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

sleet wont arrive until nightfall

Even the relatively cold RGEM has pinging in the vicinity by early or mid afternoon. Fortunately it doesn't progress very far north of there for several hours. But unless the entire structure continues to shift south or the timing changes, I would expect sleet to race fairly quickly from EPA and NJ during the day Thursday.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Great run from the RGEM. Not a huge change from previous CMC runs. Very little rain if any. Significant snow over 6-10 hours followed by sleet and probably ending as drizzle or zr.

Sounds like Dec 2020

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sounds like Dec 2020

Yeah. Probably a little warmer, and a little less QPF, but there are some similarities. The max snow axis looks different though. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yeah. Probably a little warmer, and a little less QPF, but there are some similarities. The max snow axis looks different though. 

two snow axes, one south and one north?

 

[Joe4alb]

18z GFS coming in colder also. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is colder and south

[Northof78]

Yup, per Kuchera, all Metro is 5-8" with sleet/ice afterwards, maybe some rain LI and coast, overall nice run

[EastonSN+]

Para with the skip zone further south.

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is colder and south

It's morphing into a miller B. That's been the trend over the past couple days so we'll see if that continues. 

[Tatamy]

18z GEFS

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

two snow axes, one south and one north?

 

I feel like we need it either to trend even further south where the main storm is snow instead of sleet or primary trends back north where we get the best WAA snows rather than DC (In that scenario we also flip to rain) so scenario 1 would be best.

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Yeah, I personally would expect that March can deliver us at least one or two more appreciable snowstorms before we definitely go over to spring. Next 10 days after Thursday things at least quiet down and moderate out some.

If you live anywhere 30 miles or more NW, N or NE of NYC I’m not sure why you would expect March to be anything but another winter month which is what it is the far majority of the time. I guess some people on the coastal plain view it differently, but I’ve lived here most of my life and have never counted on extended warmer weather until late April the earliest. 

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

Anyone got 18z EURO

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Anyone got 18z EURO

Not changed much.  The Euro is still very slow relative to the other models though 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not changed much.  The Euro is still very slow relative to the other models though 

You'd think it would be further west if it's slower. So probably a good sign the colder trends will continue.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You'd think it would be further west if it's slower. So probably a good sign the colder trends will continue.

Surface  is below freezing at hour 90. Most likely sleet at the time.

 

[HVSnowLover]

NAM came south, big front end dump (still north of other models as it focuses overunning snow on us instead of DC/SNJ)   

[Allsnow]

Nam 4-8 then sleet across the metro 

[eduggs]

I think we're converging on a solid advisory 3-5" type snowfall followed by sleet. So maybe something like 4-7" snow and sleet combined. I really hope we can get a few hours of heavy snow during daylight hours Thursday.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think we're converging on a solid advisory 3-5" type snowfall followed by sleet. So maybe something like 4-7" snow and sleet combined. I really hope we can get a few hours of heavy snow during daylight hours Thursday.

Possible warning event if the overrunning stuff is heavy in our area, otherwise advisory event. 

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM came south, big front end dump (still north of other models as it focuses overunning snow on us instead of DC/SNJ)   

Seems likely that we'll see at least an advisory event with borderline warning snows for some.