HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ok no ice It’s always black and white for you isn’t it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro has been snow here for the last few cycles and the other guidance seems to be moving towards it, Typical of these SWFE's is totals stay consistent over a broad area where its stays as snow and in the range of 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kind of looking more, 6z might even be a thump of a few inches near pike. Maybe 3-6 north to near NH. Sweet spot srn and cntrl VT to Lakes region and adjacent Maine. Yeah that looked colder than 00z. I’m wondering if this starts getting squeezed east now in the final 72h. When you look at the upper air pattern, it’s kind of a tight fit to slingshot that shortwave around the PV lobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It’s always black and white for you isn’t it You guys say no ice.. so no ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You guys say no ice.. so no ice Who said no ice? Siggy ice is hard to model and actually have happen. Maybe you wind up being right and lose power and the grid collapses 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that looked colder than 00z. I’m wondering if this starts getting squeezed east now in the final 72h. When you look at the upper air pattern, it’s kind of a tight fit to slingshot that shortwave around the PV lobe. Hopefully. EPS still looked similar to 00z, but maybe the amp up trend is over. It does have that “cold press” look in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You guys say no ice.. so no ice I’m not sure this looks like a classic big icing event. It moves quite fast and I’m wondering if this ends up more sleet/snow in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m not sure this looks like a classic big icing event. It moves quite fast and I’m wondering if this ends up more sleet/snow in the end. I wasn’t kidding when I mentioned interior srn CT. Might be the ice spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Its going to do just like all the others have done this year, It will tic SE in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Who said no ice? Siggy ice is hard to model and actually have happen. Maybe you wind up being right and lose power and the grid collapses You’d need to at least double the QPF too for crippling ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I wasn’t kidding when I mentioned interior srn CT. Might be the ice spot. Yeah the classic Waterbury to Hamden corridor might be a spot for ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the classic Waterbury to Hamden corridor might be a spot for ZR. The Naugatuck Valley ftl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the classic Waterbury to Hamden corridor might be a spot for ZR. Lovely, at least the pack will have some protection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Lovely, at least the pack will have some protection... Not the best/safest way to do it though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 6z Euro will be a bit less amped/east. Need that Bermuda high to nudge east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully this thing can slide east a little more. Don't think on the 6z he breaks 0 at 850 but 700 is torched, looks dumbfounded for him not ZR. True also in other places n and Nw of him. Lots of sleet on the Euro this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not the best/safest way to do it though: Nope, assume it's wrong at this point...more sleet? Not sure how my 175 foot elevation in this valley is going to fair. Still a solid 10-12 inch pack, kids are still enjoying it, but ice will make it not so safe for them. Probably prefer the sleet option... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I wasn’t kidding when I mentioned interior srn CT. Might be the ice spot. Yeah, this feels like that kind of setup. Cold draining down the valley right to New Haven. Hopefully with all the limbs taken down by storms last summer, power loss risk will be somewhat mitigated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Nope, assume it's wrong at this point...more sleet? Not sure how my 175 foot elevation in this valley is going to fair. Still a solid 10-12 inch pack, kids are still enjoying it, but ice will make it not so safe for them. Probably prefer the sleet option... Lol really? We loved ice on top of the snow as kids...the more the better, made for awesome fast sledding. We would sled and toboggan for hrs on it. I guess they don’t make kids like they used too..? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: Lol really? We loved ice on top of the snow as kids...the more the better, made for awesome fast sledding. We would sled and toboggan for hrs on it. I guess they don’t make kids like they used too..? The big boy sleds don't care much either way.........lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Need that Bermuda high to nudge east Talk about Bermuda Highs will be giving Dr. Dews a premature rise in his pants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Nope, assume it's wrong at this point...more sleet? Not sure how my 175 foot elevation in this valley is going to fair. Still a solid 10-12 inch pack, kids are still enjoying it, but ice will make it not so safe for them. Probably prefer the sleet option... Yea. I’m Thinking (hoping) more sleet then zr if this can tickle east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I’m Thinking (hoping) more sleet then zr if this can tickle east. Needless to say, that's how I'd hedge my bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: The big boy sleds don't care much either way.........lol Lol..yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The Euro might be giving a faux impression of amplitude on the 00z run .. if one is using the thermal fields, ptype as impression guide. The 500 mb was in fact slightly weaker in the vorticity layout by the time 84 hour is then relayed onward as whatever that 'smearing' that's left is, that is nearing 75 W, wends its way along a slightly flatter trajectory. Seemingly trivial that does connote slightly weaker deep layer mechanics - but that weak mechanics alters the trajectory of the stream lines exposing where advects that gunk through New England by 90 hours... more ENE as opposed to NE in the previous cycle. That, believe it or not, has a counter-intuitive way of being a warm solution. By virtue that trajectory being a little bit closer to the actual lower b-c axis, - that still more proficiently materialize the 850 to 700 mb restoring jets blowing up the polar side of the elevated frontal slope.. causing a net warming in that layer. I've seen guidance et al do this in the past.. Until the 500 mb comes sufficiently E to really ( finally ) commit to coastal ..effectively cutting off those elevate warm intrusion layers... and then the scenario at hand flips into a cyclone model proper..blah blah. This ain't there yet ... but.. If this comes a little bit more SE at 500 mb on the next cycle, this may flash back to a snowier solution NW zones ... and we'll see where it goes by late tomorrow's runs. I'm not sold on IP/ZR to RUT VT in this ... I've been seeing tendencies in the models, ..across all of them, to tone down amplitude relaying from outer Mid range to inner time frames...and given the SPV layout up N and confluence and all that jazz.. .it seems the correction vector is not really pointed at a BTV 500 mb wind max transit... Maybe? sure - but the air moves like water and tends to find the pathways of lesser resistance. The other aspect that stood out to me in the overnight runs is that the EPS signal Scott pointed out a couple of days ago has been occurring in increasing frequency across the bevy over various guidance, which is to close the gap between the "new" Monday isentropic initiation and wave. We probably could end up with 2-4" of snow NW ranging to substantive pirouetting SUV glare icer SE and probably we've been ignoring. The result in the GFS is almost no lull now at all... This could be a 30 our ..36 hour ordeal by virtue of the fact that the axis of overrunning and subsequent book-end "main wave" are running up parallel and is thus is a long corridor between 12z Monday entrance ( SW- --> NE) and exit some time on Wed... OT: The late weekend system may not go west... I like the Euro's depiction because in the models that are trying to take the surface "quasi" primary into eastern OH and vestigially into western NY, whilst only vague commitment to secondary ... all that? They are doing it while the 500 mb is dramatically in a decay sequencing of it's mechanics and the entire trough axis is zipping shut into a shear axis by the time it actually all collocates with the Eastern Seaboard early Saturday ...that means the support is attenuating rather discerned and it seems these guidance may correct toward flatter solutions as that time nears and cleaner deep layer integration emerges in future cycles... that's my early assessment on that end of the week ... There may yet be another event around the 23rd. I mentioned a week ago I thought February is a cold wash ...still believe that... I do suspect however we may ( more at seasonally ...) break harder than recent year's March's toward a spring ...given to festering La Nina + HC planetary footprint lying in wait... albeit merely presently suppressed by a dominating polar signal ... Once that appears to neutralize ... leaves mid latitudes nakedly vulnerable to the former - ... supposition for now. But fairly certain GFS won't be the guidance species that is very well adaptive to the vision given that it thinks there is only once jet gradient between here and Alpha Centaur and that's the N stream ...even in July .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12z nam looks like 6z. At least it didn’t get any warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol really? We loved ice on top of the snow as kids...the more the better, made for awesome fast sledding. We would sled and toboggan for hrs on it. I guess they don’t make kids like they used too..? As a kid, I loved it...As a parent it is different, my kids will enjoy it either way, just takes some years off my life worrying. My brother almost died when he was 6 years old, slipping on ice, going down a hill and hitting a tree head first. So ice always concerns me.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, qg_omega said: Excuse to head to Pit2.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 riding the line here...850/700 looks like it just gets past then collapses back SE, hoping for ticks east, not ready for ice and rain yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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