powderfreak Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Let’s go. Euro GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Torched With icing requiring such a delicate balance, the smart money is always to go with anything else--especially with any significant lead time.. Hopefully the 'else' in this instance is something of the wintry ilk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I’d say as usual, ORH looks dam icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, moneypitmike said: With icing requiring such a delicate balance, the smart money is always to go with anything else--especially with any significant lead time.. Hopefully the 'else' in this instance is something of the wintry ilk. Euro has near a half inch looking at PFs post above for NW CT mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Gyx not impressed with far rain up here and has us all snow. But even euro and gfs mean 6" snow then ice then warning level snow 36 hours later...flowing one warning into another for days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Euro has near a half inch looking at PFs post above for NW CT mass My point being the ingredients for ice incorporate little room for variance. The margin of error for any other outcome is much larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Let’s go. Euro GFS That snow projection looks like it hits the same general area of VT that’s been in the jackpot zone repeatedly this year. Ludlow, Manchester, Stratton. @backedgeapproaching approves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d say as usual, ORH looks dam icy. I'm shocked from there NW looks better. I'd hold off on making any purchase at this time frame though. For folks East and SE of there, I'd be watching more out of curiousity rather than bemoaning the lack of a generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro has near a half inch looking at PFs post above for NW CT mass Just as an FYI for people out there, that product doesn't represent freezing rain the same way a clown map represents snow. It's just the amount of liquid QPF that falls as freezing rain according to the model (in this case Euro). So you would have to do some back of the envelope calculations to get accretion (~75% for flat surface and 28% for radial). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Torched Not with that high. You know how these need adjusting for model biases 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d say as usual, ORH looks dam icy. Euro wants to take the Grid down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z Euro will be a bit less amped/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: Euro wants to take the Grid down there. They can have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: Euro wants to take the Grid down there. All of interior SNE just inland under the grid gun . 6z ups the ante 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Looks like a deep ass pack in VT and nrn NH by end of week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a deep ass pack in VT and nrn NH by end of week. You going plain rainstorm in SNE it seems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You going plain rainstorm in SNE it seems? Just to rt 190 in CT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 We’ll see if this holds or if it moves around . Round one ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z Euro looked like a lot of sleet. ZR near and south of Kev into RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Hopefully this thing can slide east a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Hopefully this thing can slide east a little more. If it can’t snow.. may as well just keep it there right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll see if this holds or if it moves around . Round one ZR Oof. Do not like that look at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Oof. Do not like that look at all. Maybe it shifts around if these east moves are real. But yeah.. that is a big ice sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If it can’t snow.. may as well just keep it there right? I bet you'll sleet and interior srn CT gets the ice you always wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 We’ve seen this before. Giant model ice a few days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Amount of post in here and looking at the ones posting tells the tale without looking at the models, ha ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Amount of post in here and looking at the ones posting tells the tale without looking at the models, ha ha. Well you snow. But there is only one with ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Kind of looking more, 6z might even be a thump of a few inches near pike. Maybe 3-6 north to near NH. Sweet spot srn and cntrl VT to Lakes region and adjacent Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We’ve seen this before. Giant model ice a few days out. Significant ice is easy to model and hard to achieve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Ok no ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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