40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You nailed that. Good job. Only diff was it was more EPO that year....its replaced with NAO this season. AO is common denominator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Yeah.. no one asked but I'm pretty sure that was a neggie EPO, "neg-like" PNA...and a positive NAO year... actually very much so in the latter. 1994 In fact, I recall up at the lab ( UML ) Dr Colby doing a FAST 1 demo about the vortex over E Canada ..becoming so extraordinarily large and dominating it more than less backed SW and enhanced confluence as a semi-perm feature over lower Ontario. It was in a way a pattern so f-ed up wrong, it went all the way around and ended up good - hahaha Anyway, then these flat Pac waves were seeding the wedged cold every 48 hours ... That was an awesome stretch - in my top 5 favorite 'stretches' ... That period contained the weird OES IP storm.. In Acton, we had 1/4 mi visibility ... 1/2 of which was OES snow attributed, with beautiful aggregate clusters falling whilst some other percentage of the visibility was mitigated by insane sleet. It was like 17 F too - I was a kid then ... I was pissed thinking it was personal - like... " if this sleet were only snow too..." - how you get into that head game. But looking back, never saw that before or since ...it's got its import by rareness alone. Pretty amazing to later see a warm layer at like 700 mb with the soundings slopes that vastly left that deep in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah.. no one asked but I'm pretty sure that was a neggie EPO, "neg-like" PNA...and a positive NAO year... actually very much so in the latter. 1994 In fact, I recall up at the lab ( UML ) Dr Colby doing a FAST 1 demo about the vortex over E Canada ..becoming so extraordinarily large and dominating it more than less backed SW and enhanced confluence as a semi-perm feature over lower Ontario. It was in a way a pattern so f-ed up wrong, it went all the way around and ended up good - hahaha Anyway, then these flat Pac waves were seeding the wedged cold every 48 hours ... That was an awesome stretch - in my top 5 favorite 'stretches' ... That period contained the weird OES IP storm.. In Acton, we had 1/4 mi visibility ... 1/2 of which was OES snow attributed, with beautiful aggregate clusters falling whilst some other percentage of the visibility was mitigated by insane sleet. It was like 17 F too - I was a kid then ... I was pissed thinking it was personal - like... " if this sleet were only snow too..." - how you get into that head game. But looking back, never saw that before or since ...it's got its import by rareness alone. Pretty amazing to later see a warm layer at like 700 mb with the soundings slopes that vastly left that deep in the atmosphere. Yup. Similar, just flip the NAO for EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: “We don’t live at 500mb” seems to come to mind too. I always hear about it’s H5 scores. Maybe the NWP scoring analysts all live in Bolivia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The euro is probably not correct...but I was saying if we took everything else on the model at face value, you'd have to drag that sfc freezing line southeast. There is just no way to get the sfc warmth that far inland in a sfc pressure config like that. I'm not sure if Euro is correct on the really warm mid-levels....it was pretty "phase-y" with the two streams, so it's plausible. My gut tells me we prob tick back colder given this whole boundary tends to get tilted/shifted too far NW erroneously in the medium range....sort of what Tip was alluring to above. But this is a pretty convoluted setup, so I'm just making an educated guess here. Regardless, I'm pretty sure you aren't sniffing freezing in the next 5 days (and prob longer). They'll be games with the CF fluctuating...probably close by here is my guess. Any little wave or weakness on the front will oscillate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 NAM wants that low pretty far west on Tuesday. Probably would be ice inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 NAM was a little less phased on the 18z run....something we'll obviously have to watch closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS still pretty snowy. Esp Pike region but even south of that gets a bit of of thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS still pretty snowy. Esp Pike region but even south of that gets a bit of of thump. Man that is so cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 v16 looked like ice for much of SNE except for Northern MA, Snow north of there for CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 lol - about 10 posts in three hours. Pretty good barometer of the outlook for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, PWMan said: lol - about 10 posts in three hours. Pretty good barometer of the outlook for SNE. We may finally score, The 12z Euro was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: We may finally score, The 12z Euro was epic. What were the rough totals for the week? I didn't see any of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: What were the rough totals for the week? I didn't see any of it 12-18" on the clowns, 1.5" qpf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, PWMan said: lol - about 10 posts in three hours. Pretty good barometer of the outlook for SNE. Looks fine for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks fine for me. Your good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Your good. I'm glad...been hoping for an event that gets us both....you been boned up there. I bet it ends up even colder, anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm glad...been hoping for an event that gets us both....you been boned up there. Yeah, Awful, And we should have been both in a good spot this whole time, Gradient has been just a bit south of me here the last 4 weeks anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS still pretty snowy. Esp Pike region but even south of that gets a bit of of thump. Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Para? V16 is much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: V16 is much warmer. I dunno if I’d say “much” warmer. Maybe subjective on the qualifier. It has the snow line maybe 25-30 miles north. Peltfest for a good chunk of SNE. ZR further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno if I’d say “much” warmer. Maybe subjective on the qualifier. It has the snow line maybe 25-30 miles north. Peltfest for a good chunk of SNE. ZR further south. That’s the only one we should be using . Not the one they’re canning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18z Euro looked a little more amped than 12z at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z Euro looked a little more amped than 12z at 90 hours. Meaning more warmth aloft right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Meaning more warmth aloft right? That and the surface looks warmer at 90hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That and the surface looks warmer at 90hr. South of I -90 fate is pretty obvious. Still some wiggle room north . I worried earlier today the warmth aloft would not stop trending north . Surface is locked bitter cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Talking ice this far our is as reliable as posting a 240 hour clown map. Of all outcomes, ice is by far the most difficult to come by. When it happens it can be epic, but I wouldn't get excited by it until much closer in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18z EURO looked like it was going good places in NNE at the end of the run. It is a long way out though, still time to trend it into a cutter or suppression depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 18z EURO looked like it was going good places in NNE at the end of the run. Comparing the 12z to the 18z @H5 it looked like 18z was going to be a tic or so further west then the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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