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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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Yeah.. no one asked but I'm pretty sure that was a neggie EPO, "neg-like" PNA...and a positive NAO year... actually very much so in the latter.  1994

In fact, I recall up at the lab ( UML ) Dr Colby doing a FAST 1 demo about the vortex over E Canada ..becoming so extraordinarily large and dominating it more than less backed SW and enhanced confluence as a semi-perm feature over lower Ontario.   It was in a way a pattern so f-ed up wrong, it went all the way around and ended up good - hahaha

Anyway, then these flat Pac waves were seeding the wedged cold every 48 hours ...  That was an awesome stretch - in my top 5 favorite 'stretches' ...  That period contained the weird OES IP storm..  In Acton, we had 1/4 mi visibility ... 1/2 of which was OES snow attributed, with beautiful aggregate clusters falling whilst some other percentage of the visibility was mitigated by insane sleet.    It was like 17 F too -

I was a kid then ... I was pissed thinking it was personal - like... " if this sleet were only snow too..."  - how you get into that head game. But looking back, never saw that before or since ...it's got its import by rareness alone. Pretty amazing to later see a warm layer at like 700 mb with the soundings slopes that vastly left that deep in the atmosphere.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah.. no one asked but I'm pretty sure that was a neggie EPO, "neg-like" PNA...and a positive NAO year... actually very much so in the latter.  1994

In fact, I recall up at the lab ( UML ) Dr Colby doing a FAST 1 demo about the vortex over E Canada ..becoming so extraordinarily large and dominating it more than less backed SW and enhanced confluence as a semi-perm feature over lower Ontario.   It was in a way a pattern so f-ed up wrong, it went all the way around and ended up good - hahaha

Anyway, then these flat Pac waves were seeding the wedged cold every 48 hours ...  That was an awesome stretch - in my top 5 favorite 'stretches' ...  That period contained the weird OES IP storm..  In Acton, we had 1/4 mi visibility ... 1/2 of which was OES snow attributed, with beautiful aggregate clusters falling whilst some other percentage of the visibility was mitigated by insane sleet.    It was like 17 F too -

I was a kid then ... I was pissed thinking it was personal - like... " if this sleet were only snow too..."  - how you get into that head game. But looking back, never saw that before or since ...it's got its import by rareness alone. Pretty amazing to later see a warm layer at like 700 mb with the soundings slopes that vastly left that deep in the atmosphere.

Yup. Similar, just flip the NAO for EPO.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro is probably not correct...but I was saying if we took everything else on the model at face value, you'd have to drag that sfc freezing line southeast. There is just no way to get the sfc warmth that far inland in a sfc pressure config like that.

I'm not sure if Euro is correct on the really warm mid-levels....it was pretty "phase-y" with the two streams, so it's plausible. My gut tells me we prob tick back colder given this whole boundary tends to get tilted/shifted too far NW erroneously in the medium range....sort of what Tip was alluring to above. But this is a pretty convoluted setup, so I'm just making an educated guess here.

Regardless, I'm pretty sure you aren't sniffing freezing in the next 5 days (and prob longer).

They'll be games with the CF fluctuating...probably close by here is my guess. Any little wave or weakness on the front will oscillate that. 

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