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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Will can discuss this if he chooses.  This entire week reminds me kind of in reverse of a mid March 1996 event.  Multiple days of sleet/zr and eventually snow and plenty of it.

I remember that....forecast for the final event was mostly rain with ice inland. Ended up as a pretty big snow event (8-14 inches). I remember Bruce Schwoegler seemed almost beside himself about 2 days before the 3/7 finale saying how there was a decent chance the current snow would get washed away....lol.

Yeah this seems like the reverse....we may pick up an inch or two in a couple different waves and then the Tuesday event ends up mostly IP/ZR.....guess we'll see. Could still break colder like '96 did inside 48 hours.

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Yeah.. okay - duh - this is < D5 on the Euro ..

mm, time to capitulate a bit more.   I don't have problems so much with the Euro less than D5 .. 96 hours and an open wave is cutting off the MA SE of Cape Code...

This issue here is detailed enough to question even the Euro's handling of those vertical sounding/ .. profiles N of the low track ...so perhaps a "tick" corrections save regions that 'want' snow ( haha )..

Otherwise, that's probably a ice storm in parts of the S zones - though perhaps short of warning criteria due to half of it bouncing variety.  Probably to about the Pike... then more bounce than glaze N ... then to snow Rt 2  up into central NE... something like that ... It could IP to S NH if there's one of those super elevated heat slabs like in 1994

We're probably over due ( the second more reviled statement of statistics I've ever heard! ) for an ice event for a couple reason. You usually get one per year .. however worthy of headlines or not.  Thankfully not - personally, while I do admit they can be aesthetically pleasing to the eye, if/when the power goes out ...?  I find them revolting to look at.  F it!  keep 'em.  Not worth it. Anyway these fast flow patterns ...they should really be doing overrunning variety event types more so.  We've probably been lucky this season to date, to have a La Nina/ HC footprint under a whopper -AO ...and not have had an ice storm yet.  Come to think about ...wow, no kidding-  

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah.. okay - duh - this is < D5 on the Euro ..

mm, time to capitulate a bit more.   I don't have problems so much with the Euro less than D5 .. 96 hours and an open wave is cutting off the MA SE of Cape Code...

This issue here is detailed enough to question even the Euro's handling of those vertical sounding/ .. profiles N of the low track ...so perhaps a "tick" corrections save regions that 'want' snow ( haha )..

Otherwise, that's probably a ice storm in parts of the S zones - though perhaps short of warning criteria due to half of it bouncing variety.  Probably to about the Pike... then more bounce than glaze N ... then to snow Rt 2  up into central NE... something like that ... It could IP to S NH if there's one of those super elevated heat slabs like in 1994

We're probably over due ( the second more reviled statement of statistics I've ever heard! ) for an ice event for a couple reason. You usually get one per year .. however worthy of headlines or not.  Thankfully not - personally, while I do admit they can be aesthetically pleasing to the eye, if/when the power goes out ...?  I find them revolting to look at.  F it!  keep 'em.  Not worth it. Anyway these fast flow patterns ...they should really be doing overrunning variety event types more so.  We've probably been lucky this season to date, to have a La Nina/ HC footprint under a whopper -AO ...and not have had an ice storm yet.  Come to think about ...wow, no kidding-  

My 18 friends and I agree.

image.thumb.png.019069224117fafa389b2c5e5d1ec1ad.png

 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Seems to be a lot of flux in reality.  Probably best to day to day these threats.

Prob should rephrase my sentence.....take the Euro at face value except bring the sfc temps/ice further SE. Classic model bias is 2m temps way too warm with arctic high bending into Quebec/Ontario.

But yeah, on the overall point, there's going to be model shifts between now and Tuesday....some will show more snow and others will show more ice.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bring 'em southeast in reality....gonna be hard to rain where that high is.

Yeah... I agree with Ray's chart but would lean any correction thoughts SE...

how much how little... blah blah ... but I have a hard time believing that larger synoptic set up allows/ intrudes freezing types that far... It could- these models don't layout things that can't ultimately happen - they wouldn't be much use if they did... But, when a given model's scenario needs everywhere and everything else to be perfect to get to their solution .. you can bet, everything around it won't - in that case, cold always wins when the +PP is N. 

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Prob should rephrase my sentence.....take the Euro at face value except bring the sfc temps/ice further SE. Classic model bias is 2m temps way too warm with arctic high bending into Quebec/Ontario.

But yeah, on the overall point, there's going to be model shifts between now and Tuesday....some will show more snow and others will show more ice.

So you think its mid level thermals are on point, hence a larger area of glaze?......or shift the entire thermal profile, and thus precip type stratification SE?

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So you think its mid level thermals are on point, hence a larger area of glaze?......or shift the entire thermal profile, and thus precip type stratification SE?

The euro is probably not correct...but I was saying if we took everything else on the model at face value, you'd have to drag that sfc freezing line southeast. There is just no way to get the sfc warmth that far inland in a sfc pressure config like that.

I'm not sure if Euro is correct on the really warm mid-levels....it was pretty "phase-y" with the two streams, so it's plausible. My gut tells me we prob tick back colder given this whole boundary tends to get tilted/shifted too far NW erroneously in the medium range....sort of what Tip was alluring to above. But this is a pretty convoluted setup, so I'm just making an educated guess here.

Regardless, I'm pretty sure you aren't sniffing freezing in the next 5 days (and prob longer).

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Best part of all of this is that the nasty sun is held at bay...you want a recipe for retention from mid Feb onward, that is it.....several days of clouds.

We had stretches like that in '94...I'd get 6", and the slush on the side of the roads will still be in tact when it would begin again.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro is probably not correct...but I was saying if we took everything else on the model at face value, you'd have to drag that sfc freezing line southeast. There is just no way to get the sfc warmth that far inland in a sfc pressure config like that.

I'm not sure if Euro is correct on the really warm mid-levels....it was pretty "phase-y" with the two streams, so it's plausible. My gut tells me we prob tick back colder given this whole boundary tends to get tilted/shifted too far NW erroneously in the medium range....sort of what Tip was alluring to above. But this is a pretty convoluted setup, so I'm just making an educated guess here.

Regardless, I'm pretty sure you aren't sniffing freezing in the next 5 days (and prob longer).

Feb 94 redeaux

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