powderfreak Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: How that model scores so highly is one of the great mysteries of the world. “We don’t live at 500mb” seems to come to mind too. I always hear about it’s H5 scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 How does it look for the follow-up Thursday/Friday system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: “We don’t live at 500mb” seems to come to mind too. I always hear about it’s H5 scores. Right, but how is at better than other guidance at H5, yet worse at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Will can discuss this if he chooses. This entire week reminds me kind of in reverse of a mid March 1996 event. Multiple days of sleet/zr and eventually snow and plenty of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right, but how is at better than other guidance at H5, yet worse at the surface? Very good point, ha. Always wonder if the model is built to “score” well with a disconnect based on actual surface outcomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, bch2014 said: How does it look for the follow-up Thursday/Friday system? Will post in main thread to not clutter this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro looks not so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Workable up this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Lots of sleet, zr, plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Will can discuss this if he chooses. This entire week reminds me kind of in reverse of a mid March 1996 event. Multiple days of sleet/zr and eventually snow and plenty of it. I remember that....forecast for the final event was mostly rain with ice inland. Ended up as a pretty big snow event (8-14 inches). I remember Bruce Schwoegler seemed almost beside himself about 2 days before the 3/7 finale saying how there was a decent chance the current snow would get washed away....lol. Yeah this seems like the reverse....we may pick up an inch or two in a couple different waves and then the Tuesday event ends up mostly IP/ZR.....guess we'll see. Could still break colder like '96 did inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 So much ice south pike and pingers north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice Euro run compared to GFS CMC more snow sleet less ice. That includes snow before and after 2/16.....2/16 has very little snow in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That includes snow before and after 2/16.....2/16 has very little snow in SNE. All these threads has me messed up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 For 2/16 it's the battle of the titans - Ukie vs the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 CT seems to be neatly evading post 2-7 snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 EPS seemed a little less amped for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: All these threads has me messed up More storm threads than inches of snow on this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That includes snow before and after 2/16.....2/16 has very little snow in SNE. And big ice is in Nw CT Mass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Yeah.. okay - duh - this is < D5 on the Euro .. mm, time to capitulate a bit more. I don't have problems so much with the Euro less than D5 .. 96 hours and an open wave is cutting off the MA SE of Cape Code... This issue here is detailed enough to question even the Euro's handling of those vertical sounding/ .. profiles N of the low track ...so perhaps a "tick" corrections save regions that 'want' snow ( haha ).. Otherwise, that's probably a ice storm in parts of the S zones - though perhaps short of warning criteria due to half of it bouncing variety. Probably to about the Pike... then more bounce than glaze N ... then to snow Rt 2 up into central NE... something like that ... It could IP to S NH if there's one of those super elevated heat slabs like in 1994 We're probably over due ( the second more reviled statement of statistics I've ever heard! ) for an ice event for a couple reason. You usually get one per year .. however worthy of headlines or not. Thankfully not - personally, while I do admit they can be aesthetically pleasing to the eye, if/when the power goes out ...? I find them revolting to look at. F it! keep 'em. Not worth it. Anyway these fast flow patterns ...they should really be doing overrunning variety event types more so. We've probably been lucky this season to date, to have a La Nina/ HC footprint under a whopper -AO ...and not have had an ice storm yet. Come to think about ...wow, no kidding- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah.. okay - duh - this is < D5 on the Euro .. mm, time to capitulate a bit more. I don't have problems so much with the Euro less than D5 .. 96 hours and an open wave is cutting off the MA SE of Cape Code... This issue here is detailed enough to question even the Euro's handling of those vertical sounding/ .. profiles N of the low track ...so perhaps a "tick" corrections save regions that 'want' snow ( haha ).. Otherwise, that's probably a ice storm in parts of the S zones - though perhaps short of warning criteria due to half of it bouncing variety. Probably to about the Pike... then more bounce than glaze N ... then to snow Rt 2 up into central NE... something like that ... It could IP to S NH if there's one of those super elevated heat slabs like in 1994 We're probably over due ( the second more reviled statement of statistics I've ever heard! ) for an ice event for a couple reason. You usually get one per year .. however worthy of headlines or not. Thankfully not - personally, while I do admit they can be aesthetically pleasing to the eye, if/when the power goes out ...? I find them revolting to look at. F it! keep 'em. Not worth it. Anyway these fast flow patterns ...they should really be doing overrunning variety event types more so. We've probably been lucky this season to date, to have a La Nina/ HC footprint under a whopper -AO ...and not have had an ice storm yet. Come to think about ...wow, no kidding- My 18 friends and I agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: And big ice is in Nw CT Mass Bring 'em southeast in reality....gonna be hard to rain where that high is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Bring 'em southeast in reality....gonna be hard to rain where that high is. Seems to be a lot of flux in reality. Probably best to day to day these threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Seems to be a lot of flux in reality. Probably best to day to day these threats. Prob should rephrase my sentence.....take the Euro at face value except bring the sfc temps/ice further SE. Classic model bias is 2m temps way too warm with arctic high bending into Quebec/Ontario. But yeah, on the overall point, there's going to be model shifts between now and Tuesday....some will show more snow and others will show more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I hope it doesn’t ice. out far west we virtually never get ice. It’s either rain or snow. Here it’s occasional but fortunately not super common. Iowa? The Midwest gets ice all the time and to tell you the truth it scares the hell out of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Bring 'em southeast in reality....gonna be hard to rain where that high is. Yeah... I agree with Ray's chart but would lean any correction thoughts SE... how much how little... blah blah ... but I have a hard time believing that larger synoptic set up allows/ intrudes freezing types that far... It could- these models don't layout things that can't ultimately happen - they wouldn't be much use if they did... But, when a given model's scenario needs everywhere and everything else to be perfect to get to their solution .. you can bet, everything around it won't - in that case, cold always wins when the +PP is N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Prob should rephrase my sentence.....take the Euro at face value except bring the sfc temps/ice further SE. Classic model bias is 2m temps way too warm with arctic high bending into Quebec/Ontario. But yeah, on the overall point, there's going to be model shifts between now and Tuesday....some will show more snow and others will show more ice. So you think its mid level thermals are on point, hence a larger area of glaze?......or shift the entire thermal profile, and thus precip type stratification SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: So you think its mid level thermals are on point, hence a larger area of glaze?......or shift the entire thermal profile, and thus precip type stratification SE? The euro is probably not correct...but I was saying if we took everything else on the model at face value, you'd have to drag that sfc freezing line southeast. There is just no way to get the sfc warmth that far inland in a sfc pressure config like that. I'm not sure if Euro is correct on the really warm mid-levels....it was pretty "phase-y" with the two streams, so it's plausible. My gut tells me we prob tick back colder given this whole boundary tends to get tilted/shifted too far NW erroneously in the medium range....sort of what Tip was alluring to above. But this is a pretty convoluted setup, so I'm just making an educated guess here. Regardless, I'm pretty sure you aren't sniffing freezing in the next 5 days (and prob longer). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Best part of all of this is that the nasty sun is held at bay...you want a recipe for retention from mid Feb onward, that is it.....several days of clouds. We had stretches like that in '94...I'd get 6", and the slush on the side of the roads will still be in tact when it would begin again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The euro is probably not correct...but I was saying if we took everything else on the model at face value, you'd have to drag that sfc freezing line southeast. There is just no way to get the sfc warmth that far inland in a sfc pressure config like that. I'm not sure if Euro is correct on the really warm mid-levels....it was pretty "phase-y" with the two streams, so it's plausible. My gut tells me we prob tick back colder given this whole boundary tends to get tilted/shifted too far NW erroneously in the medium range....sort of what Tip was alluring to above. But this is a pretty convoluted setup, so I'm just making an educated guess here. Regardless, I'm pretty sure you aren't sniffing freezing in the next 5 days (and prob longer). Feb 94 redeaux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Feb 94 redeaux You nailed that. Good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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