codfishsnowman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Well this got real ugly real fast for snow lovers, at least to the pike...maybe rt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 That’s funny that’s phasing potential I talked about that over a week ago - it’s been in the guidance and now getting into this near term and it’s trying to pull it off now- its incomplete this way ... If the N stream would come on down and really capture ( subsume variant of phasing...) we could go the other way. I think it’s owing to the fact that the flow is so fast that it’s really hard for the models to process that delicate stream interaction of wave mechanics and so forth… Which probably also means that this isn’t the final say solution. But I wouldn’t trust the GGEM anyway just sayn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, codfishsnowman said: Well this got real ugly real fast for snow lovers, at least to the pike...maybe rt 2 Models have been all over the place. Let's see where we trend next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Discrete interpretation of the CMC to me isn't all cold rain and ZR though ... no way... Firstly, the model is doing what I and other's have been mentioning... smearing impulses together and making the whole period between Sunday and Wednesday in the game. Prior, it was 14 or 17 ... Now, it's 14 ... polar cloudy lull with grits or even flits along with a nagging cold breeze, then this CMC has Monday with S-IP-ZR-R transition but look out! The 16th impulse runs up on it's heels.. Meanwhile, the Monday late day surface has a meso/ .. lead wave look squiring seaward of the area, and will invariably draw cold air back south ... 'Mess' is probably the best work for it - and it's an Asperger's paradise of focus figuring out the timing of all that cluster f - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Discrete interpretation of the CMC to me isn't all cold rain and ZR though ... no way... Firstly, the model is doing what I and other's have been mentioning... smearing impulses together and making the whole period between Sunday and Wednesday in the game. Prior, it was 14 or 17 ... Now, it's 14 ... polar cloudy lull with grits or even flits along with a nagging cold breeze, then this CMC has Monday with S-IP-ZR-R transition but look out! The 16th impulse runs up on it's heels.. Meanwhile, the Monday late day surface has a meso/ .. lead wave look squiring seaward of the area, and will invariably draw cold air back south ... 'Mess' is probably the best work for it - and it's an Asperger's paradise of focus figuring out the timing of all that cluster f - Kiss my grits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Kiss my grits? Lol - I don't know what those are called in all honestly. You know ? those tiny little 'dandruff' sized balls of white that bounce on the hood of a car. It'd need to do that for 20 days to get an inch worth, but they're real. They're about the size of a single 'grit' ... I dunno. It's like the pixie dust Will was mentioning above, only it gets balled up - balled pixie dust maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lol - I don't know what those are called in all honestly. You know ? those tiny little 'dandruff' sized balls of white that bounce on the hood of a car. It'd need to do that for 20 days to get an inch worth, but they're real. They're about the size of a single 'grit' ... I dunno. It's like the pixie dust Will was mentioning above, only it gets balled up - balled pixie dust maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 And than there is the Ukie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Ukie not biting on the phase idea. Guidance all over the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Spare us the cutter like that video. Which only goes to show you anybody could have done punk rock in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just saw Ukie. Too bad the model sucks, but we hope it’s right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just saw Ukie. Too bad the model sucks, but we hope it’s right. Hopefully it doesn't just nail the other side of the globe, like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just saw Ukie. Too bad the model sucks, but we hope it’s right. is it still in 2nd place over all - lol ... always been a mystery for me how it scrapes that performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lol - I don't know what those are called in all honestly. You know ? those tiny little 'dandruff' sized balls of white that bounce on the hood of a car. It'd need to do that for 20 days to get an inch worth, but they're real. They're about the size of a single 'grit' ... I dunno. It's like the pixie dust Will was mentioning above, only it gets balled up - balled pixie dust maybe I always just call it styrofoam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Better clue about 20 mins or so which way to lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro looking phasey....take 'em down for south of CON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro looking phasey....take 'em down for south of CON For the time being...wouldn't be the first time that the EURO erred on the side of phasing in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro looking GGEM-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Euro looking GGEM-esque. Figures this would be the one time the GEM nails a big phase....after all of the times it gave SNE 40" a pop- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Figures this would be the one time the GEM nails a big phase....after all of the times it gave SNE 40" a pop- GGEM was all alone about 3-4 cycles ago....totally schooled the competition on this one from 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Euro looking GGEM-esque. The main high pressure falls behind the system instead of shifting over the top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, das said: I always just call it styrofoam. oh.. heh, right - like when you break it to pieces you get those tiny white balls - sumpin li' ghat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Timing is significantly slower on the Euro than compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM was all alone about 3-4 cycles ago....totally schooled the competition on this one from 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh.. heh, right - like when you break it to pieces you get those tiny white balls - sumpin li' dhat A lot of us call them dippin' dots too....since they look like the dippin' dots ice cream snack you buy at amusement parks or the mini mart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Glad the spread sheets show the Ukie in 2nd place for nailing a trough over Islamabad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Glad the spread sheets snow the Ukie in 2nd place for nailing a trough over Islamabad. How that model scores so highly is one of the great mysteries of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Kevin gets his ZR at least....that's a pretty good icing event over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: How that model scores so highly is one of the great mysteries of the world. Dave Dombrowski handles the scoring.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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