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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

I don't doubt there is a spike after CAD mixes out, but some of the more :weenie: meso guidance shows the low lvl cold hanging tough .. maybe even a weenie cold tuck for SE NH / NE MA tmrw midday? 

18z NAM shows this to a degree and it does mitigate the spike. 

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Here's our ice forecast for CT. Decided to go pretty lean with the freezing rain totals given model trends and latest HRRR runs. BDR/HVN/GON are all solidly above freezing right now and dont expect them to dip below fz again. Went with nothing for the immediate shore. Inland with a light glaze to possibly up to 0.10 well inland in the hill towns. Biggest concern is far NW litchfield where prolonged freezing rain looks likely and certainly the biggest threat for any damage/power outages from ice.

02_15.21_jdj_ice_forecast_2.thumb.jpg.7ffd73b76505a6c4b81bcde0cf5dfd55.jpg

02_15.21_jdj_northeast_overview.thumb.jpg.c360ad3cb07700ae10304cde98de5b77.jpg

RAD_MOS_REG_NE_L2WINTER_ANI.gif.d66135c5730691e518839f1b92a01063.gif

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting...the ZR is now starting to glaze the deck whereas a couple hours ago it was just wet. We’ve dropped a degree or so since then and also lost peak insulation. That was enough to make the difference. 

Deck is glazed over here too, pavement still mostly wet. Down 27F. Anything untreated will be nasty by sunset. 

Dews are still awful low across SE NH/SW ME on NE winds. Gonna be a slow process to reach freezing across the interior.

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