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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah the SE ticks don’t happen all the time . Euro has 50’s into much of SNE

It will be absolute mediocrity there, and especially here.  Southeast New England  may be sipping on the white claws and breaking out the t-shirts, parts of the east slopes of the Berks up through hippie and hunchie will probably have a solid glaze of ice,. PF will be dancing in the snow, meanwhile we will have miserable cold rain vomit with temps in the thirties and not much wind with perhaps a little post frontal temp and spike. There's nothing to take comfort in, no damage to be found.  If anything, the potential for pack preservation may be the only silver lining in all of this.  

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Just now, Modfan2 said:

I think this is honestly a borderline event for you; we have seen a warm bias on modeling in recent weeks so I don’t think you torch at all in this and I think you will float 31-34 during this. 

Other than today, it looks like it’s above freezing for most of CT other than far NW and valley areas like Simsbury . Probably almost no icing 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh we definitely ping, hoping to grab a dense 6” or so outta this.

We walk the line.

8D982348-6CF2-45EE-BEAC-DC99DC3C40DE.thumb.png.21dc31ce5e570c9c303858cdacb09d6d.png

Temps are well below freezing up in our area so basically I am treating this as a pack consolidator. It will make it even more bulletproof to add 6 inches of snow and sleet.

I am also guessing I stay snow a little longer than the models show. That has been the pattern all winter here in marginal events. Jackson, Berlin, even the ski places turn before me.

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Temps are well below freezing up in our area so basically I am treating this as a pack consolidator. It will make it even more bulletproof to add 6 inches of snow and sleet.

I am also guessing I stay snow a little longer than the models show. That has been the pattern all winter here in marginal events. Jackson, Berlin, even the ski places turn before me.

Yeah I think everyone turns pretty much at similar times as it’s marginal up at 700-800mb.  Local topography differences don’t seem to matter as much in these.

Doesnt matter though, still a nice winter event.  Don’t have to talk me into 6” of snow/sleet.  That stuff skis so well... smooth and dense.  You push a turn, it pushes back.

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Temps are well below freezing up in our area so basically I am treating this as a pack consolidator. It will make it even more bulletproof to add 6 inches of snow and sleet.

I am also guessing I stay snow a little longer than the models show. That has been the pattern all winter here in marginal events. Jackson, Berlin, even the ski places turn before me.

Not this time. The warmth is coming in way aloft. It’ll be a south to north deal and not elevation dependent. If you stay snow it’ll be because the lift in the marginal layer was strong enough to cool the column enough to fight off the melting as the warmth advects in.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not this time. The warmth is coming in way aloft. It’ll be a south to north deal and not elevation dependent. If you stay snow it’ll be because the lift in the marginal layer was strong enough to cool the column enough to fight off the melting as the warmth advects in.

Yeah doesn’t matter, mountain summit or lowest valley... that warmth is way up there.  Only way to stay snow is just to fight it off aloft.

It’s like I tell folks we’ll mix to sleet and get... “maybe the mountain will stay snow because it seems to be a snowy place.”  Maybe it will but not for that reason, ha.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Not this time. The warmth is coming in way aloft. It’ll be a south to north deal and not elevation dependent. If you stay snow it’ll be because the lift in the marginal layer was strong enough to cool the column enough to fight off the melting as the warmth advects in.

It'll be fun to watch. As long as it's all well-below freezing at the surface, it's fine. Seems like I avoid any ZR too, which is useless. The pack should be flattened into a solid mass after this. Then Thursday we can start adding fluff back on top.

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It'll be fun to watch. As long as it's all well-below freezing at the surface, it's fine. Seems like I avoid any ZR too, which is useless. The pack should be flattened into a solid mass after this. Then Thursday we can start adding fluff back on top.

It won’t be flattened.  It’ll be a net gain in depth.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

What in the blue fook are you talking about? There is major CAD with this system even if it rains. You aren’t wiping out a double digit high-water content snowpack in central MA with ZR and then 34F rain. Even if it spiked to 45F for a few hours on FROPA that is basically meaningless. 

You’d have enough trouble wiping out that pack with a 12/25/20 redux. 

image.thumb.png.1b24c07605b7bd67cd2bd9f89a387509.png

 EURO gives a beating to CT's pack, most down to 2-4" patches besides the NW hills.. 

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Just now, PWMan said:

Such a shame that this is now tainting what looked to be a snowy vacation week for the ski areas. Skiing in/on sleet sucks. Hopefully the late-week deal turns out better.

Skiing in sleet can be painful but everyone has face masks, ha.  Skiing on sleet is wonderful.  It’s so smooth.  Freezing rain though and the situation changes quickly.  

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