Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This stuff falling now came in as straight zr. No sleet . 27.7/20. What could have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Mini Feb 2015 booted out by Mini Grinch 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This stuff falling now came in as straight zr. No sleet . 27.7/20. What could have been Not over yet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The kink south to the surface warm front is likely severely under-modeled. Cold Air damming and ageo flow along the Apps—this looks like a classic example down to the mid Atlantic. At the margin this will likely have important implications and cause the surface low to travel southeast of I90. And how this feeds into the potential development of a mesolow near 40N, mitigating easterly fetch, we could still be looking at cold surprises down to I95. But this latter points seems far less likely at the moment, outside of persistence factors—climo, snowpack etc... A surface low track halfway between I90 and I95 —or thereabouts—is my best guess at the moment...Hedging colder than guidance... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 If its any consolation for up here it looks to be a gain but that's not saying much because even 1" would be a plus this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 We will have no problem with below freezing temps at the surface up here, Its the warming aloft that's the issue and how soon that takes place to cut into the snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The kink south to the surface warm front is likely severely under-modeled. Cold Air damming and ageo flow along the Apps—this looks like a classic example down to the mid Atlantic. At the margin this will likely have important implications and cause the surface low to travel southeast of I90. And how this feeds into the potential development of a mesolow near 40N, mitigating easterly fetch, we could still be looking at cold surprises down to I95. But this latter points seems far less likely at the moment, outside of persistence factors—climo, snowpack etc... A surface low track halfway between I90 and I95 —or thereabouts—is my best guess at the moment...Hedging colder than guidance... 33* rain rather than 37* rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Already torched upstairs, just had a ip/zr shower, now the sun is trying to come out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looking at last nights uncle, Not only was it drunk but must of been into the edibles too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Had some zr when I was on the pike coming home from work.. Not much at home yet.. Looks warm later on. We meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looking at last nights uncle, Not only was it drunk but must of been into the edibles too. Someone needs to put a 12 gauge to that model. Eff that POS. Take your 500mb error reports and wipe your bum with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: 33* rain rather than 37* rain. Yea. Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Not over yet..... The snowpack will be wiped out . Maybe to ORH as south winds roar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Someone needs to put a 12 gauge to that model. Eff that POS. Take your 500mb error reports and wipe your bum with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The snowpack will be wiped out . Maybe to ORH as south winds roar Replenish thursday-friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The snowpack will be wiped out . Maybe to ORH as south winds roar Not a chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 27 minutes ago, dryslot said: We will have no problem with below freezing temps at the surface up here, Its the warming aloft that's the issue and how soon that takes place to cut into the snow totals. I had a bad feeling last week about our chances this week. Stick a fork in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 South winds are not getting to ORH lol. And snow stays for Most areas except maybe here on S and E. We replenish later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, 512high said: Replenish thursday-friday? That one could easily have the same thing happen that this one did 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I had a bad feeling last week about our chances this week. Stick a fork in this winter. Do you ever have good feelings? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Whoops - wrong nowcast thread! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Southern Gulf Coast. Where winter lives 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Do you ever have good feelings? lol, not this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Southern Gulf Coast. Where winter lives But they’re not getting sleet or ZR, so their pack won’t last. Suckers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Someone needs to put a 12 gauge to that model. Eff that POS. Take your 500mb error reports and wipe your bum with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Southern Gulf Coast. Where winter lives Probably the most extreme winter outbreak in the south of our lifetime. Rolling blackouts now up to 5 hours. The environmental impact to tropical vegetation is immense. 1899 redeaux. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Do you ever have good feelings? I thought NNE people were hardy folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I had a bad feeling last week about our chances this week. Stick a fork in this winter. We have a better shot at Thursday of more snow with that one from what i'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Probably the most extreme winter outbreak in the south of our lifetime. Rolling blackouts now up to 5 hours. The environmental impact to tropical vegetation is immense. 1899 redeaux. Won’t be a long lasting as 1989, but this is a potent shot with general cold into the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Probably the most extreme winter outbreak in the south of our lifetime. Rolling blackouts now up to 5 hours. The environmental impact to tropical vegetation is immense. 1899 redeaux. It is absolutely bonkers. I just keep looking at weather in Texas. Can't stop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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