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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huge zr signal that run and sleet up into SNH

The arctic cold in low levels is really impressive even at like 900-925mb....definitely more of a sleet sounding. You want torched 850s for ZR....these 850s are barely around 0C.

You aren't getting ZR when you are barely above freezing in the warm layer and like -9C at 925mb, lol. That is a paint peeler if I ever saw one.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The arctic cold in low levels is really impressive even at like 900-925mb....definitely more of a sleet sounding. You want torched 850s for ZR....these 850s are barely around 0C.

You aren't getting ZR when you are barely above freezing in the warm layer and like -9C at 925mb, lol. That is a paint peeler if I ever saw one.

That's the type of sounding you may even get some flakes forming under the inversion 

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1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

That's the type of sounding you may even get some flakes forming under the inversion 

Yep, the classic "pixie dust" sleet with frigid surface temps. You get these crappy flakes forming below the warm layer so the sleet is more like a 3 or 4 to 1 ratio.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t forget this will keep trending north with the warning aloft. These always do 

Needs to be a lot warmer for ZR....not sure I see it, but I suppose its possible if we keep phasing the northern stream. RGEM was doing that.

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Didn't we have a pan-regional event a couple season's ago...  it was a sleet mess. 

My front yard had 2.5" of sleet that next morning when I keyed my car. I was amazed...  I mean, 2.5" of sleet is a pretty hefty water stoked event, and to have all that be clear pellets was really something. 

I remember the run -up to the event thinking it could bust snowier ..roughly the N- half/arc of the spatial realization, because the logic at the time was a very cold antecedent air mass, might pile up deeper in the sounding east of the Berks'-Whites topography, ... etc..etc..and make the soundings rather steep/frontogenic loaded...  That would tend to compress the latitude bands of ptype S ... you know - cold rain- ZR-IP-S ...  But it was the same sort of thing from HFD to almost CON NH...  IP everywhere.. big dose of it. 

I don't think this is that.  I do think with the high pressure and general +PP arced W-N of the area, and the B-C zone slicing SW-NE well enough S of our latitude, this really should compress the ptype bands more so.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM sort of follows Reggie....mostly ZR and rain....sleet way into NNE on that run. That's nearly a full phase with the northern stream which seems unlikely, but that is how the storm would look if that happens.

Yea, sell a full phase.

How is it fully phased w a 1006mb low?

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