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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Take the watches/warnings down if the trend doesn’t stop at 00z. I’ve been pretty confident this would start going back SE at some point but that PV lobe is providing like zero resistance which is weird. You’d think at some point it would. I mean, as recently as 12z runs today, we saw a notable increase in the high presence up north...maybe something weird happened in the 18z runs that was kind of fake. If it’s real, we will see it again at 00z.

Its also kind of amazing to remember that the GGEM utterly de-pantsed the GFS/Ukie/Euro all from about 4-4.5 days out. It was all alone for like 2 cycles on showing the partial phase. 

The second Scooter said that today , I knew it was over . He always looks for ways for me to get screwed . So when he said I was in a good spot.. I got nervous. That’s why I didn’t say anything when he forecast that . And then Tip said all ice north of PVD to HFD line  and iron clad it. 24 hours out and it’s just blown out of the water . Now Dryslot gets our icestorm and we look at grass the rest of the week .

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18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That 18z Euro is a furnace aloft, Worse then 12z, What the hell happened to the SE tics like all season.

I outlined what's going on - strongly supported by multi guidance depictions at this point a few post/ page ago...

This system had some idiosyncratic noise down the stretch that skunked the early solutions regarding the amount and exertion of high "promised" to stem down along traditional climate routes into New England ...  a.k.a., it's no longer there -

It's having to rely now upon rotted polar air as oppose to having that direct insert - 

as a separate dialogue ... Mets outside this social media'sphere and myself have noted over the last 20 ...particularly 10 years, that we don't do so well at flipping marginal scenarios that crucial degree negative to get to the blue snow or the coveted ( Kevin ..) ice... We are in fact flipping marginal situations more routinely a degree up -

This appears like it is trying to destine that for a lot of the area.. working with marginal air mass ..so.  Not sure about up your way in NNE - frankly ...It's too big of a sub forum multi-lateral focus :( ugh.. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The second Scooter said that today , I knew it was over . He always looks for ways for me to get screwed . So when he said I was in a good spot.. I got nervous. That’s why I didn’t say anything when he forecast that . And then Tip said all ice north of PVD to HFD line  and iron clad it. 24 hours out and it’s just blown out of the water . Now Dryslot gets our icestorm and we look at grass the rest of the week .

There were lots of red flags. 12z nam got me excited, but every other model wasn’t so enthusiastic. I would wait a day though. Maybe you get only 3-4 hrs above freezing.  I said a number of times guidance was not pressing the cold like you see in good icing events. RAP and 12Z NAM did, but maybe that wasn’t correct. We’ll see. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

There were lots of red flags. 12z nam got me excited, but every other model wasn’t so enthusiastic. I would wait a day though. Maybe you get only 3-4 hrs above freezing.  I said a number of times guidance was not pressing the cold like you see in good icing events. RAP and 12Z NAM did, but maybe that wasn’t correct. We’ll see. 

Still time for this to tic back but i would of like to have seen this get halted rather then continue.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

There were lots of red flags. 12z nam got me excited, but every other model wasn’t so enthusiastic. I would wait a day though. Maybe you get only 3-4 hrs above freezing.  I said a number of times guidance was not pressing the cold like you see in good icing events. RAP and 12Z NAM did, but maybe that wasn’t correct. We’ll see. 

Nah man it’s done . You don’t see bump runs 24 hours out go back the other way . 00z is going to be brutal . I’ll check back early morning just to start the week off as poorly as possible 

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Surface will not go above freezing but everything else is, Could care less about ZR.

I thought this would be the one to get you guys going.  Never saw *this* big of a NW swing to bring mixed up to here.  Certainly been a tough go of it around the PWM/LEW areas since that mid-level band crush job in what, December?

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I thought this would be the one to get you guys going.  Never saw *this* big of a NW swing to bring mixed up to here.  Certainly been a tough go of it around the PWM/LEW areas since that mid-level band crush job in what, December?

I want to see lava rock screwed. 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I thought this would be the one to get you guys going.  Never saw *this* big of a NW swing to bring mixed up to here.  Certainly been a tough go of it around the PWM/LEW areas since that mid-level band crush job in what, December?

Yeah, 12/17 we had 9.0", Since then only two storms over 5".

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