Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Take the watches/warnings down if the trend doesn’t stop at 00z. I’ve been pretty confident this would start going back SE at some point but that PV lobe is providing like zero resistance which is weird. You’d think at some point it would. I mean, as recently as 12z runs today, we saw a notable increase in the high presence up north...maybe something weird happened in the 18z runs that was kind of fake. If it’s real, we will see it again at 00z. Its also kind of amazing to remember that the GGEM utterly de-pantsed the GFS/Ukie/Euro all from about 4-4.5 days out. It was all alone for like 2 cycles on showing the partial phase. The second Scooter said that today , I knew it was over . He always looks for ways for me to get screwed . So when he said I was in a good spot.. I got nervous. That’s why I didn’t say anything when he forecast that . And then Tip said all ice north of PVD to HFD line and iron clad it. 24 hours out and it’s just blown out of the water . Now Dryslot gets our icestorm and we look at grass the rest of the week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: That 18z Euro is a furnace aloft, Worse then 12z, What the hell happened to the SE tics like all season. I outlined what's going on - strongly supported by multi guidance depictions at this point a few post/ page ago... This system had some idiosyncratic noise down the stretch that skunked the early solutions regarding the amount and exertion of high "promised" to stem down along traditional climate routes into New England ... a.k.a., it's no longer there - It's having to rely now upon rotted polar air as oppose to having that direct insert - as a separate dialogue ... Mets outside this social media'sphere and myself have noted over the last 20 ...particularly 10 years, that we don't do so well at flipping marginal scenarios that crucial degree negative to get to the blue snow or the coveted ( Kevin ..) ice... We are in fact flipping marginal situations more routinely a degree up - This appears like it is trying to destine that for a lot of the area.. working with marginal air mass ..so. Not sure about up your way in NNE - frankly ...It's too big of a sub forum multi-lateral focus ugh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The second Scooter said that today , I knew it was over . He always looks for ways for me to get screwed . So when he said I was in a good spot.. I got nervous. That’s why I didn’t say anything when he forecast that . And then Tip said all ice north of PVD to HFD line and iron clad it. 24 hours out and it’s just blown out of the water . Now Dryslot gets our icestorm and we look at grass the rest of the week . There were lots of red flags. 12z nam got me excited, but every other model wasn’t so enthusiastic. I would wait a day though. Maybe you get only 3-4 hrs above freezing. I said a number of times guidance was not pressing the cold like you see in good icing events. RAP and 12Z NAM did, but maybe that wasn’t correct. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There were lots of red flags. 12z nam got me excited, but every other model wasn’t so enthusiastic. I would wait a day though. Maybe you get only 3-4 hrs above freezing. I said a number of times guidance was not pressing the cold like you see in good icing events. RAP and 12Z NAM did, but maybe that wasn’t correct. We’ll see. Still time for this to tic back but i would of like to have seen this get halted rather then continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I think the ACATT crew may be in for an ugly surprise. these things always come in colder and east until they don’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There were lots of red flags. 12z nam got me excited, but every other model wasn’t so enthusiastic. I would wait a day though. Maybe you get only 3-4 hrs above freezing. I said a number of times guidance was not pressing the cold like you see in good icing events. RAP and 12Z NAM did, but maybe that wasn’t correct. We’ll see. Nah man it’s done . You don’t see bump runs 24 hours out go back the other way . 00z is going to be brutal . I’ll check back early morning just to start the week off as poorly as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Still time for this to tic back but i would of like to have seen this get halted rather then continue. Gulf low, SE ridge, blocking not here. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Nah man it’s done . You don’t see bump runs 24 hours out go back the other way . 00z is going to be brutal . I’ll check back early morning just to start the week off as poorly as possible Ahh defense mechanism up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think the ACATT crew may be in for an ugly surprise. these things always come in colder and east until they don’t. Depends where you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ahh defense mechanism up. Just defeated and upset . Blocking and negative everything and we still pull Xmas Eve redux 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Been out and about all day. Judging by the last few posts, this has trended to shit? We torching straight to NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: FUGLY 12z 18z Still not getting above freezing here during precip with that track. Just slash the snow and add more IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Still not getting above freezing here during precip with that track. Just slash the snow and add more IP/ZR. As long as that is the last big NW jump we'll still be fine, but I really dont want another ice storm so praying it stays or ticks back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Still not getting above freezing here during precip with that track. Just slash the snow and add more IP/ZR. Surface will not go above freezing but everything else is, Could care less about ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I’m imagining some Kenny G “End of the Night” while seeing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 P-type plots... gets the mix line right to my doorstep. Possibly another Champlain Valley jackpot... the actual valley has had a couple rare wins lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That was very un euro like to make a big shift like it did at 18z, Pretty Ukie like actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 31 minutes ago, dendrite said: Precip is outta here by then. Is that just mixing us out on the backside? You are right. I just went back and looked. Precip is out of Central NH by 16Z to 17Z. At that time Plymouth is 30 to 32. So all precip is frozen of some sort up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Surface will not go above freezing but everything else is, Could care less about ZR. I thought this would be the one to get you guys going. Never saw *this* big of a NW swing to bring mixed up to here. Certainly been a tough go of it around the PWM/LEW areas since that mid-level band crush job in what, December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I’ll take white claws and thongs On Tuesday if I can keep snow Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: I thought this would be the one to get you guys going. Never saw *this* big of a NW swing to bring mixed up to here. Certainly been a tough go of it around the PWM/LEW areas since that mid-level band crush job in what, December? I want to see lava rock screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Not too worried here. The models were a little aggressive with the mix depiction for some of the other storms up here this year. Wildcat and Jackson may have pingers or ZR. I expect mostly snow, perhaps some sleet at the peak. No biggie. As long as I stay safely below freezing it's all gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: I thought this would be the one to get you guys going. Never saw *this* big of a NW swing to bring mixed up to here. Certainly been a tough go of it around the PWM/LEW areas since that mid-level band crush job in what, December? Yeah, 12/17 we had 9.0", Since then only two storms over 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Our 3 far NNE posters and Scooter posting . All anyone needs to know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Our 3 far NNE posters and Scooter posting . All anyone needs to know Jesus Christ, change your fooking maxi pad and give it a day. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Jesus Christ, change your fooking maxi pad and give it a day. A day? Lol. We’re well into the event by then. I’m going to bed . Will wake up to FW and ISW’s in Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottieBird Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus Christ, change your fooking maxi pad and give it a day. He's pushing 50. He doesn't need maxi pads anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ScottieBird said: He's pushing 50. He doesn't need maxi pads anymore. Adult diapers maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Models make incremental changes. Apparently humans don't believe in those and would rather just make one big jump after 24-36 hours of trends (that haven't stopped yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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