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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One aspect I'm seeing in the warmer boundary layered runs .. .heh, which is pretty much all of them at this point - or seems destined that way - is that a bit of a 'COL' has opened up all over New England.  The polar high that was so ideally draped west-east through Ontario, and wedging down... really is not 'quite' doing so the same as it appeared to be handled... before this shit the ice/cold rain bed.

image.png.9f7af91d3b04225ddc258d24d86a60ac.png

I was in doubts of a warm BL intrusion .. but upon seeing that 'COL' ( area inside the red ovoid annotation abv - ) I am less head-scratching, and more completely absolved of it. Seriously, if the models are going to 'hold back' the cold sourcing within a mere 36 f'um hours of the onset as a convenience to La Nina ... tough luck. 

Lol..seriously though that has a bit of a blind-sided short term correction attack on clad intents and purposes about it.  Yeah, I guess you can look at the 500 mb "maybe" have inferred that "inverse cold blocking" could happen by the mid level jet... but, we've seen that fire hose over the top in the past, and still ...arctic synoptic air rounds the Maine bend and tucks its way down - maybe an interesting now cast op.  But, that lobe of deep cold and the attending surface high up there is really being held way back at this point.

I think there will be ageo flow - has to be.. Even the most NW postions take the low SE of Worcester ...so there has to be drain in the interior...question is, is there enough cold in the COL area to keep things freezing...  I think that's the supplying air mass to this things BL circus act for SNE and probably S NH /SE VT...

 

I agree Tip. I mentioned that yesterday and how it wasn’t a fresh airmass. The 09z RAP and 12Z NAM did change that and allow more of a press and ageo flow into SNE, but other models backed off. So while I’m not as warm as some of the guidance, they might be hinting at something. Which is why I think highwr confidence in ice might be NW CT into ORH on N and NE. But it’s possible guidance trends a little colder. This isn’t like the day before MLK 2019 event where we had Ray at 12F and the Arctic hounds ready to storm eastern areas.  

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a lot of confusion from Scoots and others. They’re moving around with each NAM run . TBH..no one knows what’s happening 

As usual, because you aren’t in a good climo big ice spot, it’s good to put you in a lower confidence area. 

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2008 broke Kevin a bit on icing events. I think he’d even admit it a little. That one stung...he was certain he’d get the big icing in that one and then when he was marginal ice and cold rain at 32.2F, he saw the ORH pics and died a little inside. 

Hes been trying to make up for it ever since, but you really can’t fully recover from that. It’s like missing out on free tickets to the Atlanta/Patriots SB as a Pats fan or game 7 2003 ALCS tickets as a Yankees fan because you had an in-laws dinner party to attend to and couldn’t get out of it. Sure, you try and make up for it later on but you truly just have to accept you whiffed a once in a generation type event. 

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean Kevin is on the edge there,  so confidence higher NE. 

We bust him, but I’m actually interested in following his Davis during this to see if he his high enough to hang around 30-31° or if he latently warms to that dreaded boring 32.2°. 

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We bust him, but I’m actually interested in following his Davis during this to see if he his high enough to hang around 30-31° or if he latently warms to that dreaded boring 32.2°. 

Deep down he’s probably good for a siggy icing event. Unless 00z runs come in as a furnace.

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