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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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Not considering whatever happens after this week...

I can't remember the last time SNE had such a devolution of high-ceiling, multiple event potential...

Just 4 days ago it looked like Feb 94 redux, at least 2-3 events, on track for widespread foot+ of snow SNE by the end of this week on guidance as recently as Euro Feb 12 0z!... and now large parts of SNE are looking at a nuisance kitchen sink / rainstorm. Live and die by the gradient.

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Not considering whatever happens after this week...

I can't remember the last time SNE had such a devolution of high-ceiling, multiple event potential...

Just 4 days ago it looked like Feb 94 redux, at least 2-3 events, on track for widespread foot+ of snow SNE by the end of this week on guidance as recently as Euro Feb 12 0z!... and now large parts of SNE are looking at a nuisance kitchen sink / rainstorm. Live and die by the gradient.

I think it still looks pretty wintery N of pike and inland.

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Just now, wxsniss said:

Not considering whatever happens after this week...

I can't remember the last time SNE had such a devolution of high-ceiling, multiple event potential...

Just 4 days ago it looked like Feb 94 redux, at least 2-3 events, on track for widespread foot+ of snow SNE by the end of this week on guidance as recently as Euro Feb 12 0z!... and now large parts of SNE are looking at a nuisance kitchen sink / rainstorm. Live and die by the gradient.

It's always 10 days away. Now it's Friday lol can't complain down here though if we get 6" Friday that's 36" of snowfall with 6 different snowfalls and consistent deep pack and also two ice storms with a -3 to -5 departure for the first 18 days of February and temperatures never rising higher than 40. 

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12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Not considering whatever happens after this week...

I can't remember the last time SNE had such a devolution of high-ceiling, multiple event potential...

Just 4 days ago it looked like Feb 94 redux, at least 2-3 events, on track for widespread foot+ of snow SNE by the end of this week on guidance as recently as Euro Feb 12 0z!... and now large parts of SNE are looking at a nuisance kitchen sink / rainstorm. Live and die by the gradient.

Euro trending colder/snowier with Friday's storm.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some of these bridge jumpers are going to have this big moment of epiphany at the last moment, and act like some huge change occurred.

I mean Mets and others have been hammering away at a cold scenario with moderate to major impacts and Theres been posts of 50’s, snow wiped out and a rainstorm . It’s like someone looked at a GFS map and just lost it 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Have you read or followed anything? Only the immediate coast gets into the low - mid 30’s.

There is a difference between a forecast and hope. Some of us enjoy the fun stuff ( a big snowstorm predicted well in advance), but do not particularly want to endure weeks long power outages in winter (2008), watch our homes get blown away in a hurricane or tornado, or experience any other life threatening nightmare. COVID had been quite sufficient for me. 

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No way you hit 35.

 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Have you read or followed anything? Only the immediate coast gets into the low - mid 30’s.

I think even the interior would jump above freezing for brief time on the FROPA behind the system. But yeah, most of the precip damage occurs below freezing. 

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One aspect I'm seeing in the warmer boundary layered runs .. .heh, which is pretty much all of them at this point - or seems destined that way - is that a bit of a 'COL' has opened up all over New England.  The polar high that was so ideally draped west-east through Ontario, and wedging down... really is not 'quite' doing so the same as it appeared to be handled... before this shit the ice/cold rain bed.

image.png.9f7af91d3b04225ddc258d24d86a60ac.png

I was in doubts of a warm BL intrusion .. but upon seeing that 'COL' ( area inside the red ovoid annotation abv - ) I am less head-scratching, and more completely absolved of it. Seriously, if the models are going to 'hold back' the cold sourcing within a mere 36 f'um hours of the onset as a convenience to La Nina ... tough luck. 

Lol..seriously though that has a bit of a blind-sided short term correction attack on clad intents and purposes about it.  Yeah, I guess you can look at the 500 mb "maybe" have inferred that "inverse cold blocking" could happen by the mid level jet... but, we've seen that fire hose over the top in the past, and still ...arctic synoptic air rounds the Maine bend and tucks its way down - maybe an interesting now cast op.  But, that lobe of deep cold and the attending surface high up there is really being held way back at this point.

I think there will be ageo flow - has to be.. Even the most NW postions take the low SE of Worcester ...so there has to be drain in the interior...question is, is there enough cold in the COL area to keep things freezing...  I think that's the supplying air mass to this things BL circus act for SNE and probably S NH /SE VT...

 

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