ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does the Euro still show early/mid afternoon start tomorrow? It actually has light crap off and on starting predawn tomorrow morning and then the steady stuff moves in early Tuesday predawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: that is without a doubt north with the snow. We are screwed, here comes the sleet. It'll probably be worse than that. The 6" snow line jumped a good 30-40 miles n and w. Not the trend i was hoping for. Its been slowly heading north with all snow line last few runs--like most other guidance, just doing it in the more slow and steady Euro fashion. I'm taking the under on most weenie snow maps here in SVT. Thinking brief start as snow then lots of pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: I think like half decent rule of thumb is to go colder at the surface, but warmer aloft with overrunning events. I've seen it posted many times "Sleet is closing than you think" or something like that and its often true. Yes. I agree anecdotally with dendrite’s NAM rule...when it’s ripping in warm layers around 750mb, usually best to take it seriously. When it has the max warm layer much lower around 850, then we toss if other models are colder. And yes on the surface. Model guidance is overwhelmingly too aggressive in these situations in warming up the lowest levels. Maybe if a track from ginxy to Scooter actually verifies, then I might push the warmth further inland, but otherwise, bring ‘em down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It actually has light crap off and on starting predawn tomorrow morning and then the steady stuff moves in early Tuesday predawn. Oh for CT seemed timing was Monday evening and ending Tuesday morning. That sounds slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh for CT seemed timing was Monday evening and ending Tuesday morning. That sounds slower For CT euro is some light on and off freezing drizzle Monday then the bulk is 2am Tuesday til 11am Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s definitely been running colder aloft along with the Ukie. Suggests a lot of sleet N of pike...esp near MA/NH border. Prob starts as a burst of snow even. My gut tells me to go with the warmer models aloft though. Certainly wouldn't be surprising, just like taking the under on sfc temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just gonna have to do a one and only call tmw...blog is a no-fly zone w wife this wknd. This looking like VD 2007 deal? Sleet bomb for me? Those are pretty rare...don't doubt a late cold trend- 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just gonna have to do a one and only call tmw...blog is a no-fly zone w wife this wknd. This looking like VD 2007 deal? Sleet bomb for me? Those are pretty rare...don't doubt a late cold trend- Looks like less QPF than VDay 2007...that was a massive QPF bomb. I think I had like 8-9 inches of 6 or 7 to 1 snow/sleet combo. I also think midlevels are likely to be a little warmer so more ZR than that one. We’ll see though. Can’t rule out a late SE trend aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like less QPF than VDay 2007...that a massive QPF bomb. I think I had like 8 inches of 6 or 7 to 1 snow/sleet combo. I also think midlevels are likely to be a little warmer so more ZR than that one. We’ll see though. Can’t rule out a late SE trend aloft. Yea, I meant VD lite.....I know QPF is less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I meant VD lite..... Kevin had that once ask him what the treatment is 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Hoping to avoid the worst of the torch tuesday, gfs 2m into the 50s over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: sleet is like the Borg...resistance is futile. Your going to need to breath into a paper bag soon, Man, Just relax, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a decent bit of zr for coastal standards here tomorrow with the light northerly flow. Seems to be a decent setup for that from Braintree/ Brockton pts west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 We looking at rain or ice? Not caught up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 21 minutes ago, BostonWX said: Hoping to avoid the worst of the torch tuesday, gfs 2m into the 50s over SE MA. Drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12-20 for both events together this week. Final call. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Drunk? Same ol' G(FS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18z NAM back to more of a furnace like the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM back to more of a furnace like the 06z run. Just can’t buy it; I suppose it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: Just can’t buy it; I suppose it can happen. resistance is futile...you will be assimilated. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Modfan2 said: Just can’t buy it; I suppose it can happen. I’m tossing those types of runs until the evidence is very clear that’s what will happen. Seen this so many times where they try and track storms up Ginxy’s fanny only to see them go over the Cape or Islands once we’re almost on top of verification. Still gotta watch the mesolow potential too out ahead of it. Tomorrow’s junk could play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Kevin had that once ask him what the treatment is Big tipper in the VIP room at the Blue? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 WSW’s up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I’m sorry radial vs flat ice? Is that like accretion on a tree limb vs accretion on a sidewalk or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 A little x-section through the 18z 3k NAM ptypes. You can see the fronto slope along 300K and some decent lift around here just N of the warm tongue moving in at 750mb. I noticed on the 12k the snow tries to fight off the sleet line just north of CON for a good 6 hours. Of course most of the lift is below the DGZ which is typical of these events although there is some midlevel banding near the Canadian border. I kinda miss it on this slice, but there's more lift in the DGZ around 500-600mb westward toward BTV/SLK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM is just basically a big rain storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 53 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 12-20 for both events together this week. Final call. Looks like a good call at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: NAM is just basically a big rain storm here Well that would suck the big weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: We take that Euro run. Axis straight through the heart of BTV CWA. Awesome looking map, congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Well that would suck the big weenie. Better than ice but was hoping for a sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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