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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

that is without a doubt north with the snow.  We are screwed, here comes the sleet.  It'll probably be worse than that.  The 6" snow line jumped a good 30-40 miles n and w.  Not the trend i was hoping for.

Its been slowly heading north with all snow line last few runs--like most other guidance, just doing it in the more slow and steady Euro fashion.  I'm taking the under on most weenie snow maps here in SVT.  Thinking brief start as snow then lots of pellets.

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

I think like half decent rule of thumb is to go colder at the surface, but warmer aloft with overrunning events. I've seen it posted many times "Sleet is closing than you think" or something like that and its often true.

Yes. I agree anecdotally with dendrite’s NAM rule...when it’s ripping in warm layers around 750mb, usually best to take it seriously. When it has the max warm layer much lower around 850, then we toss if other models are colder. 

And yes on the surface. Model guidance is overwhelmingly too aggressive in these situations in warming up the lowest levels. Maybe if a track from ginxy to Scooter actually verifies, then I might push the warmth further inland, but otherwise, bring ‘em down.  

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s definitely been running colder aloft along with the Ukie. Suggests a lot of sleet N of pike...esp near MA/NH border. Prob starts as a burst of snow even. 

My gut tells me to go with the warmer models aloft though. 

Certainly wouldn't be surprising, just like taking the under on sfc temps

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just gonna have to do a one and only call tmw...blog is a no-fly zone w wife this wknd.

This looking like VD 2007 deal? Sleet bomb for me? Those are pretty rare...don't doubt a late cold trend-

Looks like less QPF than VDay 2007...that was a massive QPF bomb. I think I had like 8-9 inches of 6 or 7 to 1 snow/sleet combo. 

I also think midlevels are likely to be a little warmer so more ZR than that one. We’ll see though. Can’t rule out a late SE trend aloft. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like less QPF than VDay 2007...that a massive QPF bomb. I think I had like 8 inches of 6 or 7 to 1 snow/sleet combo. 

I also think midlevels are likely to be a little warmer so more ZR than that one. We’ll see though. Can’t rule out a late SE trend aloft. 

Yea, I meant VD lite.....I know QPF is less.

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Just now, Modfan2 said:

Just can’t buy it; I suppose it can happen.

I’m tossing those types of runs until the evidence is very clear that’s what will happen. Seen this so many times where they try and track storms up Ginxy’s fanny only to see them go over the Cape or Islands once we’re almost on top of verification. 

Still gotta watch the mesolow potential too out ahead of it. Tomorrow’s junk could play a role. 

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A little x-section through the 18z 3k NAM ptypes. You can see the fronto slope along 300K and some decent lift around here just N of the warm tongue moving in at 750mb. I noticed on the 12k the snow tries to fight off the sleet line just north of CON for a good 6 hours. Of course most of the lift is below the DGZ which is typical of these events although there is some midlevel banding near the Canadian border. I kinda miss it on this slice, but there's more lift in the DGZ around 500-600mb westward toward BTV/SLK.

image.png

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