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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12k looked like about 50/50 snow and sleet for CON...3km maybe a little more sleet. You being a little more north helps. Hopefully we stay mostly snow. I hate clearing tons of sleet.

I've never really found an effective way to do it.  No matter when and how I clear, these SN/PL/FZRA systems always wreck my driveway.  

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a good shot of cold rain for E /NE mass during the bulk of it, unless high placement or track nuisance argues for 32 iso therm more SE 

If that Reggie track verified then surface cold is eventually scoured out of a chunk of SNE.   I still think we get our ticks E though as we get closer. 

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10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I've never really found an effective way to do it.  No matter when and how I clear, these SN/PL/FZRA systems always wreck my driveway.  

I don't do any clearing until the entire storm is over.  Usually the PL/FZRA layer is on top of the snow below.  If you clear snow just before the changeover you are screwed.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Maybe, thou when they cut thru Tennessee they are aren’t as likely to tickle East last 24 imo 

Secondary may tickle east on some of these runs like the RGEM. Not sure I’m totally buying a low over scooters head. Something like NAM makes more sense. 

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25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12k looked like about 50/50 snow and sleet for CON...3km maybe a little more sleet. You being a little more north helps. Hopefully we stay mostly snow. I hate clearing tons of sleet.

That’s an improvement over 6Z, and if what that means is 4-6 inches of snow up our way and then some sleep on top and a glaze then that’s fine. Then we see which way Thursday and Friday trend and we could still be doing nice by the weekend.

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22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a good shot of cold rain for E /NE mass during the bulk of it, unless high placement or track nuisance argues for 32 iso therm more SE 

CT and N Central mass Ice

Yea... there will be ice... but I don’t think it’ll be widespread, and I think more people will end up plain rain than currently think they will.

Some of these models are very warm, tough to deny the trend there. I know people kind of put on the cold goggles in these situations, but it looks real torchy on some of these runs 

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37 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I don't do any clearing until the entire storm is over.  Usually the PL/FZRA layer is on top of the snow below.  If you clear snow just before the changeover you are screwed.

Yeah, that’s the method I try to roll with but sometimes end up screwed anyway.  Getting a few inches of snow first is key in being able to deal with it I think.  Mostly sleet over to freezing drizzle is a nightmare if you don’t own a plow. 

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Without seeing a full profile I'd guess the euro is alot of sleet north of route 2. 850C line hits a brick wall near the border. 850 and 700 are 0 to +2c during most of the precip

Yeah it’s definitely been running colder aloft along with the Ukie. Suggests a lot of sleet N of pike...esp near MA/NH border. Prob starts as a burst of snow even. 

My gut tells me to go with the warmer models aloft though. 

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

that is without a doubt north with the snow.  We are screwed, here comes the sleet.  It'll probably be worse than that.  The 6" snow line jumped a good 30-40 miles n and w.  Not the trend i was hoping for.

As we say every time, you know the sleet will come in quicker than modeled too.  

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s definitely been running colder aloft along with the Ukie. Suggests a lot of sleet N of pike...esp near MA/NH border. Prob starts as a burst of snow even. 

My gut tells me to go with the warmer models aloft though. 

I think like half decent rule of thumb is to go colder at the surface, but warmer aloft with overrunning events. I've seen it posted many times "Sleet is closing than you think" or something like that and its often true.

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