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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

We're sort of QPF limited for a big ice storm here. 0.5"-1.0" of all ZR will cause some issues but definitely short of what you need for the ice storm that Kevin dreams about. 

Yeah, I was mentioning this earlier (I think yesterday) about the QPF aspect. I’d normally want to see at least 2” of qpf for major ice storm concerns unless it’s like 1.25-1.50 protracted out over like 36-48 hours from mostly light intensity stuff. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, I was mentioning this earlier (I think yesterday) about the QPF aspect. I’d normally want to see at least 2” of qpf for major ice storm concerns unless it’s like 1.25-1.50 protracted out over like 36-48 hours from mostly light intensity stuff. 

Yup for sure. I mean I guess it could always bump up but a quick thump probably doesn't get it done.

Also the NWS is now forecasting straight "flat ice" accretion. No more radial. So 0.5" of flat ice accretion is the new warning threshold but you won't start seeing major impacts until at least 0.75" and probably more like 1.0"

Radial ice = flat ice * 0.4 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yup for sure. I mean I guess it could always bump up but a quick thump probably doesn't get it done.

Also the NWS is now forecasting straight "flat ice" accretion. No more radial. So 0.5" of flat ice accretion is the new warning threshold but you won't start seeing major impacts until at least 0.75" and probably more like 1.0"

Radial ice = flat ice * 0.4 

Yeah the new criteria using flat ice makes the warnings a lot easier to verify...and makes the warning a lot less menacing than it used to be. It’s still a pretty good icing event, but the old ice storm warning was like “whoa, this is pretty serious”. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the new criteria using flat ice makes the warnings a lot easier to verify...and makes the warning a lot less menacing than it used to be. It’s still a pretty good icing event, but the old ice storm warning was like “whoa, this is pretty serious”. 

For sure. We've had a couple decent events in CT over the last few years where we've been able to fine tune the impacts with certain flat ice amounts thanks to the ASOS I group. Once you get to 0.5" you start seeing some limbs snap and outages and over 0.75" it starts to get more significant. 

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46 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I see lots of sleet for us.  Even if it turns to freezing rain it’s going to be coming down too hard to cause extensive tree and powerline damage.  This isn’t 48 hours of freezing drizzle, It’s a fast moving system.

Yeah hopefully a little bit of snow and then mostly sleet here at beast.  Freezing rain doesn’t scare me though The masses will just rip up the rain Crust

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Just now, CT Rain said:

For sure. We've had a couple decent events in CT over the last few years where we've been able to fine tune the impacts with certain flat ice amounts thanks to the ASOS I group. Once you get to 0.5" you start seeing some limbs snap and outages and over 0.75" it starts to get more significant. 

Yeah and that matches with my old radial anecdotes....I always noticed around a quarter inch radial is when you’d start seeing the scattered power outages and then at around 1/3 or 3/8ths is when it would start to seem to “ramp up”. 

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15 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup for sure. I mean I guess it could always bump up but a quick thump probably doesn't get it done.

Also the NWS is now forecasting straight "flat ice" accretion. No more radial. So 0.5" of flat ice accretion is the new warning threshold but you won't start seeing major impacts until at least 0.75" and probably more like 1.0"

Radial ice = flat ice * 0.4 

That’s been an issue for verification for us. We usually do reviews for larger winter events and I had to remind the group about not just going back and counting the 6hr I group. 

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30 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Low 50s for Groton! 

That's the New London I love.

15 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

For sure. We've had a couple decent events in CT over the last few years where we've been able to fine tune the impacts with certain flat ice amounts thanks to the ASOS I group. Once you get to 0.5" you start seeing some limbs snap and outages and over 0.75" it starts to get more significant. 

I'm gathering from what I've been reading that the max strip might be about .5" accretion.  So perhaps some issues, nothing epic.  It'll be pretty in any case.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

That's the New London I love.

I'm gathering from what I've been reading that the max strip might be about .5" accretion.  So perhaps some issues, nothing epic.  It'll be pretty in any case.

I could say some higher elevations that never fully clear the cold see .6 but probably more isolated in any regard 

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

NWS BOX not even rolling with any advisories at this point.

#unimpressed 

Probably looking for greater confidence on the zr/ip mix.   We see WSW up 24+ hours before events.  For most, this will likely be an advisory event so putting those up later today should be ample notice.

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thanks for interpreting that for me.  The pack will certainly be solidified in any event and then we see about Thursday-Friday.

12k looked like about 50/50 snow and sleet for CON...3km maybe a little more sleet. You being a little more north helps. Hopefully we stay mostly snow. I hate clearing tons of sleet.

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