wx2fish Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: ugghhh so nobody wins. we don't stay snow and you get a bad ice storm. I hate those, despite the beauty. 12z nam is decent net gain for you. Warm layer is basically 0c for the meat of it. You'd sleet, but get a thump first I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 25 minutes ago, BrianW said: My neighbor is a lineman for Eversource. He said they are bringing in a ton of out of state crews on standby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z ICON looks like a ton of ice yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON looks like a ton of ice yikes Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Kevin wins. That’s all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Kevin wins. That’s all I see lots of sleet for us. Even if it turns to freezing rain it’s going to be coming down too hard to cause extensive tree and powerline damage. This isn’t 48 hours of freezing drizzle, It’s a fast moving system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 When we talk "interior" here, what delineates interior from coastal plain? I think I have seen my area noted as coastal in this forum in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Map? Using tropical tidbits. Never go above freezing and has a ton of qpf.. Their map shows rain but it's definitely not.. For some reason they don't have a color for mixing on that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I see lots of sleet for us. Even if it turns to freezing rain it’s going to be coming down too hard to cause extensive tree and powerline damage. This isn’t 48 hours of freezing drizzle, It’s a fast moving system. Mid to upper 20s it won't matter much if it's heavy or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Not sure I buy this from Channel 5; I think that zone around ORH sees more sleet than ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Kevin wins. That’s all Lol. What ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 58 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: It would really be nuts if the end of the week storm trends towards zr since we don't warm above freezing this week.. No melting in between I mean this has been said by Chris, and myself ..and others, but we really wouldn't observe that much accretion as those number attempt to pop eyes and gaslight people's e-tropic high ... lol. Seriously though... at 70 to 80% max accretion efficiency on non radial objects, ranging to perhaps 45% on aspects like tree limbs and wires and such... that prooobably just knicks warning ice in the interior. It is also - I think ... - on the higher end of QPF layouts I have seen ..so I wonder if that's an over- wet run. But that ~ 1.25" axis of QPF that's more or less 'twixt the Pike and rt 2, if assuming ideal icing, ...may get .4 to .5" radial accretion on those types of exposures... Probably ends with that shards of broken glass look over side streets ...while sag timber cracks sound off around wooded neighborhoods ...For some unlucky few, even audible inside in their darkened, steadily cooling home, rendered dead silent homes - like everyone wants to be in (wtf ) jesus... Otherwise, pretty aesthetic glow. But if it stops there..this should not be huge. I'd be more worried about the backside ... The models seem to offer a pulse of CAA with some rather tightly space isobars... Don't want wind of any kind with ice loading. Having said all that... I'm surprised this whole event is unfolding this way frankly. it is unusual to have this degree ( no pun intended...) of sloped sounding .. The surface looks like the antecedence to a Miller B bomb.. 500 mb is bulging thicknesses up the EC and astride ocean, and it's 564 almost to LI ? That's a La Nina 700 mb thing there... I almost think this system's unusual structure is really a battle ground system that's removed all other noise and is exposing a tug-o-war between a strong -AO, vs La Nina ( HC?) stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, wx2fish said: 12z nam is decent net gain for you. Warm layer is basically 0c for the meat of it. You'd sleet, but get a thump first I think Thanks for interpreting that for me. The pack will certainly be solidified in any event and then we see about Thursday-Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I mean this has been said by Chris, and myself ..and others, but we really wouldn't observe that much accretion as those number attempt to pop eyes and gaslight people's e-tropic high ... lol. Seriously though... at 70 to 80% max accretion efficiency on non radial objects, ranging to perhaps 45% on aspects like tree limbs and wires and such... that prooobably just knicks warning ice in the interior. It is also - I think ... - on the higher end of QPF layouts I have seen ..so I wonder if that's an over- wet run. But that ~ 1.25" axis of QPF that's more or less 'twixt the Pike and rt 2, if assuming ideal icing, ...may get .4 to .5" radial accretion on those types of exposures... Probably ends with that shards of broken glass look over side streets ...while sag timber cracks sound off around wooded neighborhoods ...For some unlucky few, even audible inside in their darkened, steadily cooling home, rendered dead silent - like everyone wants to be in ( ) jesus... Otherwise, pretty aesthetic glow. But if it stops there..this should not be huge. I'd be more worried about the backside ... The models seem to offer a pulse of CAA with some rather tightly space isobars... Don't want wind of any kind with ice loading. Having said all that... I'm surprised this whole event is unfolding this way frankly. it is unusual to have this degree ( no pun intended...) of sloped sounding .. The surface looks like the antecedence to a Miller B bomb.. 500 mb is bulging thicknesses up the EC and astride ocean, and it's 564 almost to LI ? That's a La Nina 700 mb thing there... I almost think this system's unusual structure is really a battle ground system that's removed all other noise and is exposing a tug-o-war between a strong -AO, vs La Nina ( HC?) stuff. well we still have a few days to see how it evolves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Not sure I buy this from Channel 5; I think that zone around ORH sees more sleet than ice I hope, I like having a house with electricity and cable working but thats just me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Not sure I buy this from Channel 5; I think that zone around ORH sees more sleet than ice All these networks are going to show model outputs that are either too aggressive, or show weird holes and bullseyes because they can’t resolve certain mesoscale aspects. I honestly wouldn’t pay much attention to those graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All these networks are going to show model outputs that are either too aggressive, or show weird holes and bullseyes because they can’t resolve certain mesoscale aspects. I honestly wouldn’t pay much attention to those graphics. Agree and all she does is show model outputs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: well we still have a few days to see how it evolves... What - this begins tomorrow night down here... I mean in general - the whole scope ..which includes time, and geography. The gestation of the event is late Monday to early Wednesday from the TV to exiting Maine. I don't think there's likely to be more than "tick" variances... Now, ticks can certainly bite - haha - ..if they add up and folks aren't paying attention. But the scaffolding of the synopsis is pretty clad at this point. This is a weird, anomalously warm intrusion at 775 mb ... perhaps supplied by a suppressed La Nina field that in a metaphoric sence is 'hissing' ... through a leak/opportunity to bulge a weird thickness burst up and off the EC ... with a ton of cold air draped S-SE Canada. It really is like a battle ground between La Nina and AO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. What ? Your icy dreams coming true for parts of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS mostly rain to the VT/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What - this begins tomorrow night down here... I mean in general - the whole scope ..which includes time, and geography. The gestation of the event is late Monday to early Wednesday from the TV to exiting Maine... I thought you were talking about the late week deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, RDRY said: GFS mostly rain to the VT/NH border. lets see what the new version says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, RDRY said: GFS mostly rain to the VT/NH border. Toss those sfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What - this begins tomorrow night down here... I mean in general - the whole scope ..which includes time, and geography. The gestation of the event is late Monday to early Wednesday from the TV to exiting Maine. I don't think there's likely to be more than "tick" variances... Now, ticks can certainly bite - haha - ..if they add up and folks aren't paying attention. But the scaffolding of the synopsis is pretty clad at this point. This is a weird, anomalously warm intrusion at 775 mb ... perhaps supplied by a suppressed La Nina field that in a metaphoric sence is 'hissing' ... through a leak/opportunity to bulge a weird thickness burst up and off the EC ... with a ton of cold air draped S-SE Canada. It really is like a battle ground between La Nina and AO Actually starts in CT tomorrow midday/ afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I thought you were talking about the late week deal wondered ...heh. Yeah that one appears to be a redux really... I mean it won't be exactly the same - they never are. But fast flow, anomalous warm transpire above a colder lower troposphere - more so than "normal" WAA event structure... - appears likely. The Euro hinted at shifting the whole bag E ... that's probably the best way to get the cold solutions, because it's becoming more evidence that the mid troposphere over America is trying to warm up .. It should be noted that the AO is rising about as fast as it physically can on this planet - it's like "synergy" ?? It's not air apparently driving these looks, but that former factor and these looks appear almost related - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Toss those sfc temps. Okay, freezing rain. Either way, snow and sleet now seem to be confined to extreme NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Toss those sfc temps. Low 50s for Groton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yeah.. so anywho - I'm with Will ...who has spent the morning in futile attempt to encourage people's perspectives on the low levels in this... There is no way the cross-guidance, unanimously supported construct of having a high pressure entry into this whole systemic ordeal ..situated as it is ( across Ontario and already anchored/CADed ...) into the region, is going to yield to WAA. That is physically impossible to mix out without the p-wave off a comet impact - It is ice to S of HFD to almost PVD... or at most, shaving temps off even higher resolution guidance - which probably connotes the former in this situation. The only way that is not the case.... the models have to be wrong about the high, and antecedent cold - both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Clear trends .. ISW’s coming? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 We're sort of QPF limited for a big ice storm here. 0.5"-1.0" of all ZR will cause some issues but definitely short of what you need for the ice storm that Kevin dreams about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now