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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

ugghhh so nobody wins.  we don't stay snow and you get a bad ice storm.  I hate those, despite the beauty.

12z nam is decent net gain for you. Warm layer is basically 0c for the meat of it. You'd sleet, but get a thump first I think 

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I see lots of sleet for us.  Even if it turns to freezing rain it’s going to be coming down too hard to cause extensive tree and powerline damage.  This isn’t 48 hours of freezing drizzle, It’s a fast moving system.

Mid to upper 20s it won't matter much if it's heavy or not

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58 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

It would really be nuts if the end of the week storm trends towards zr since we don't warm above freezing this week.. No melting in between

I mean this has been said by Chris, and myself ..and others, but we really wouldn't observe that much accretion as those number attempt to pop eyes and gaslight people's e-tropic high ... lol.

Seriously though... at 70 to 80% max accretion efficiency on non radial objects, ranging to perhaps 45% on aspects like tree limbs and wires and such... that prooobably just knicks warning ice in the interior.  It is also - I think ... - on the higher end of QPF layouts I have seen ..so I wonder if that's an over- wet run.  

But that ~ 1.25" axis of QPF that's more or less 'twixt the Pike and rt 2, if assuming ideal icing, ...may get .4 to .5" radial accretion on those types of exposures... Probably ends with that shards of broken glass look over side streets ...while sag timber cracks sound off around wooded neighborhoods ...For some unlucky few, even audible inside in their darkened, steadily cooling home, rendered dead silent homes - like everyone wants to be in (wtf  :axe: ) jesus...   Otherwise, pretty aesthetic glow.   But if it stops there..this should not be huge.

I'd be more worried about the backside ... The models seem to offer a pulse of CAA with some rather tightly space isobars... Don't want wind of any kind with ice loading.

Having said all that... I'm surprised this whole event is unfolding this way frankly.  it is unusual to have this degree ( no pun intended...) of sloped sounding .. The surface looks like the antecedence to a Miller B bomb.. 500 mb is bulging thicknesses up the EC and astride ocean, and it's 564 almost to LI ?   That's a La Nina 700 mb thing there...  I almost think this system's unusual structure is really a battle ground system that's removed all other noise and is exposing a tug-o-war between a strong -AO, vs La Nina ( HC?) stuff. 

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean this has been said by Chris, and myself ..and others, but we really wouldn't observe that much accretion as those number attempt to pop eyes and gaslight people's e-tropic high ... lol.

Seriously though... at 70 to 80% max accretion efficiency on non radial objects, ranging to perhaps 45% on aspects like tree limbs and wires and such... that prooobably just knicks warning ice in the interior.  It is also - I think ... - on the higher end of QPF layouts I have seen ..so I wonder if that's an over- wet run.  

But that ~ 1.25" axis of QPF that's more or less 'twixt the Pike and rt 2, if assuming ideal icing, ...may get .4 to .5" radial accretion on those types of exposures... Probably ends with that shards of broken glass look over side streets ...while sag timber cracks sound off around wooded neighborhoods ...For some unlucky few, even audible inside in their darkened, steadily cooling home, rendered dead silent - like everyone wants to be in ( :axe: ) jesus...   Otherwise, pretty aesthetic glow.   But if it stops there..this should not be huge.

I'd be more worried about the backside ... The models seem to offer a pulse of CAA with some rather tightly space isobars... Don't want wind of any kind with ice loading.

Having said all that... I'm surprised this whole event is unfolding this way frankly.  it is unusual to have this degree ( no pun intended...) of sloped sounding .. The surface looks like the antecedence to a Miller B bomb.. 500 mb is bulging thicknesses up the EC and astride ocean, and it's 564 almost to LI ?   That's a La Nina 700 mb thing there...  I almost think this system's unusual structure is really a battle ground system that's removed all other noise and is exposing a tug-o-war between a strong -AO, vs La Nina ( HC?) stuff. 

 

well we still have a few days to see how it evolves...

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6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Not sure I buy this from Channel 5; I think that zone  around ORH sees more sleet than ice

0A6C7797-726E-40D1-94E1-FBC909CEEC9F.png

All these networks are going to show model outputs that are either too aggressive, or show weird holes and bullseyes because they can’t resolve certain mesoscale aspects. I honestly wouldn’t pay much attention to those graphics.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All these networks are going to show model outputs that are either too aggressive, or show weird holes and bullseyes because they can’t resolve certain mesoscale aspects. I honestly wouldn’t pay much attention to those graphics.

Agree and all she does is show model outputs.....

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12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

well we still have a few days to see how it evolves...

What - this begins tomorrow night down here... 

I mean in general - the whole scope ..which includes time, and geography.  The gestation of the event is late Monday to early Wednesday from the TV to exiting Maine. I don't think there's likely to be more than "tick" variances... Now, ticks can certainly bite - haha - ..if they add up and folks aren't paying attention.  But the scaffolding of the synopsis is pretty clad at this point.

This is a weird, anomalously warm intrusion at 775 mb ... perhaps supplied by a suppressed La Nina field that in a metaphoric sence is 'hissing' ... through a leak/opportunity to bulge a weird thickness burst up and off the EC ... with a ton of cold air draped S-SE Canada.  It really is like a battle ground between La Nina and AO

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What - this begins tomorrow night down here... 

I mean in general - the whole scope ..which includes time, and geography.  The gestation of the event is late Monday to early Wednesday from the TV to exiting Maine. I don't think there's likely to be more than "tick" variances... Now, ticks can certainly bite - haha - ..if they add up and folks aren't paying attention.  But the scaffolding of the synopsis is pretty clad at this point.

This is a weird, anomalously warm intrusion at 775 mb ... perhaps supplied by a suppressed La Nina field that in a metaphoric sence is 'hissing' ... through a leak/opportunity to bulge a weird thickness burst up and off the EC ... with a ton of cold air draped S-SE Canada.  It really is like a battle ground between La Nina and AO

Actually starts in CT tomorrow midday/ afternoon 

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I thought you were talking about the late week deal

wondered ...heh.

Yeah that one appears to be a redux really...  I mean it won't be exactly the same - they never are.   But fast flow, anomalous warm transpire above a colder lower troposphere - more so than "normal" WAA event structure... - appears likely.

The Euro hinted at shifting the whole bag E ... that's probably the best way to get the cold solutions, because it's becoming more evidence that the mid troposphere over America is trying to warm up .. It should be noted that the AO is rising about as fast as it physically can on this planet - it's like "synergy" ??   It's not air apparently driving these looks, but that former factor and these looks appear almost related -

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Yeah.. so anywho -

I'm with Will ...who has spent the morning in futile attempt to encourage people's perspectives on the low levels in this...

There is no way the cross-guidance, unanimously supported construct of having a high pressure entry into this whole systemic ordeal ..situated as it is ( across Ontario and already anchored/CADed ...) into the region, is going to yield to WAA.

That is physically impossible to mix out without the p-wave off a comet impact -

It is ice to S of HFD to almost PVD...  or at most, shaving temps off even higher resolution guidance - which probably connotes the former in this situation.

The only way that is not the case.... the models have to be wrong about the high, and antecedent cold - both.

 

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