CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol.. I was thinking about that running yesterday morning just laughing to myself Someone needs to put his face on that album cover with the dude covering her chest with his hands. Please somebody do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: It does I feel like it busts more when the warm layer is around H85 and it’s the warmest model. But it usually nails these H7 warm tongues. I’m sure Will can name every system it failed on in the last decade, but I’m just going by my empirical feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: I feel like it busts more when the warm layer is around H85 and it’s the warmest model. But it usually nails these H7 warm tongues. I’m sure Will can name every system it failed on in the last decade, but I’m just going by my empirical feeling. I’ve noticed the same with the high warm tongues. At least on most models when it shows it at 0C, I usually hedge sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You can tell by the ageo wind direction and meso low that travels along the CT coast then up the CC canal that this is a hairy situation. Hard to scour out cold in the CT Valley as well with low N winds I’m with you. Away from the coast I just don’t see surface temps moving up at all from Monday night lows. Are sig icing events ever forecasted accurately? Serious question—even the recent event in the Pacific Northwest caught everyone off guard. I feel like the less it’s anticipated the more likely it’s to happen with these things. The nature of it I suppose: an intersection of multiple marginal conditions...and an atmosphere that achieves a prolonged period of “steady state”. The opposite of dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, jbenedet said: I’m with you. Away from the coast I just don’t see surface temps moving up at all from Monday night lows. Are sig icing events ever forecasted accurately? Serious question—even the recent event in the Pacific Northwest caught everyone off guard. I feel like the less it’s anticipated the more likely it’s to happen with these things. The nature of it I suppose: an intersection of multiple marginal conditions...and an atmosphere that achieves a prolonged period of “steady state”. The opposite of dynamic. Regarding the PAC NW, I’m pretty sure the NAM actually did decent on that. It did show a warm tongue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Fwiw the RAP is pretty cold and icy into CT. That temp profile makes more sense to me vs other models just spontaneously warming temps up outside of the latent heat ZR zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 So disappointing to see this morph into a 3-4” slop-fest here. I really thought it was finally our turn to get a solid snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This isn’t a pure in-situ CAD event like we often see with a retreating high into Nova Scotia. It’s going to be really hard to dislodge cold in the interior. The only way will be if the primary trends west and stronger and you get a secondary trying track over like SE CT to RI to SE MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This isn’t a pure in-situ CAD event like we often see with a retreating high into Nova Scotia. It’s going to be really hard to dislodge cold in the interior. The only way will be if the primary trends west and stronger and you get a secondary trying track over like SE CT to RI to SE MA. Look at the RAP vs the 6z NAM. It's probably related to the NAM track, but the RAP has better ageo drain into SNE vs the NAM which just warms everyone up. You can see it at 925 too. I was expecting more of a RAP look, but when the NAM (which usually is good in these) started to get really warm...it looked a little off to me. But the NAM is also amped up. I agree though. I don't see areas like ORH and interior NE MA sniffing 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM looks a little stronger with the primary vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 48 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said: The valley here almost always holds on to cold longer than the models are showing. I'm expecting mainly sleet and ZR here. Heck, I think even down here we could be pretty icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Expecting 6-10 here, no mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM really pressing the cold air into NNE on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Isn't this a fairly classic banana high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Might be just minor differences with that PV, but almost looks like the RAP. Really presses down and feeds into this. No way inland sniffs 32 in that. This run makes more sense when you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Also means heights ahead of developing low higher/warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Might be just minor differences with that PV, but almost looks like the RAP. Really presses down and feeds into this. No way inland sniffs 32 in that. This run makes more sense when you think about it. Pretty hard to warm the interior when it’s not mostly in-situ CAD. This is pretty classic pressure pattern to keep them well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Pretty hard to warm the interior when it’s not mostly in-situ CAD. This is pretty classic pressure pattern to keep them well below freezing. Is this regarding only surface temperatures or is it aloft colder as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Pretty hard to warm the interior when it’s not mostly in-situ CAD. This is pretty classic pressure pattern to keep them well below freezing. That makes more sense though compared to previous NAM runs. At least to me. I don't know why it wasn't showing the drain. I didn't think interior was warming, but this may change the game near 128 and maybe even BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Now that's a lot of qpf on the NAM that is nasty here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: Now that's a lot of qpf on the NAM that is nasty here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It would really be nuts if the end of the week storm trends towards zr since we don't warm above freezing this week.. No melting in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This isn’t a pure in-situ CAD event like we often see with a retreating high into Nova Scotia. It’s going to be really hard to dislodge cold in the interior. The only way will be if the primary trends west and stronger and you get a secondary trying track over like SE CT to RI to SE MA. I think the football announcer may have just said that the kicker has not missed a field goal from less than 48 yards all season as he sets up for a 46-yard attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 My neighbor is a lineman for Eversource. He said they are bringing in a ton of out of state crews on standby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This is turning into a longer duration event as well. Guidance has this starting on Monday now with light freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, BrianW said: My neighbor is a lineman for Eversource. He said they are bringing in a ton of out of state crews on standby. This is starting to look bad, better load up on my firewood today and stay in Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Is this regarding only surface temperatures or is it aloft colder as well? Surface. It can torch aloft as long the flow is Southwest up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Surface. It can torch aloft as long the flow is Southwest up there. ugghhh so nobody wins. we don't stay snow and you get a bad ice storm. I hate those, despite the beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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