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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The euro is really holding its ground d for mostly snow for the north of CON to LEW line.  

GYX hedging towards those warmer models a little bit and has a really good forecast that allows for many possibilities but makes it clear it will be impactf

ul.

Still a good 36 hours out so we don’t have to watch the meso models today,To see if they tic back colder.

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Still a good 36 hours out so we don’t have to watch the meso models today,To see if they tic back colder.

Yes and maybe a trend to get the Monday stuff heavier.  Is it a two part storm with a period of fluffy snow Monday pm, then a pause then some wetter snow Tuesday am which changes to mix before ending?

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks it comes in tomorrow afternoon as straight zr south of pike , so things get going well in advance of the main event Monday into Tuesday . Maybe starts as sleet or snow north of 90?

Yea. Light icing for a little while until Tuesday, but as I said....the meat of it for you is not certain as far as temps go. I’d lean colder, but this isn’t a fresh polar airmass anymore.

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks it comes in tomorrow afternoon as straight zr south of pike , so things get going well in advance of the main event Monday into Tuesday . Maybe starts as sleet or snow north of 90?

You can tell by the ageo wind direction and meso low that travels along the CT coast then up the CC canal that this is a hairy situation. Hard to scour out cold in the CT Valley as well with low N winds

download (62).png

download (63).png

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2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

how does it look out here? Seems borderline on other guidance right now....

At least .3 frozen. Everyone will have to watch temps. Models like to overwhelm shallow cold air when winds are offshore. Many times cold locks in while above torches. Now cast situation. If we go SE winds its over. Thats what other models have. 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

At least .3 frozen. Everyone will have to watch temps. Models like to overwhelm shallow cold air when winds are offshore. Many times cold locks in while above torches. Now cast situation. If we go SE winds its over. Thats what other models have. 

Euro shows it well

20210214_081546.jpg

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22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You can tell by the ageo wind direction and meso low that travels along the CT coast then up the CC canal that this is a hairy situation. Hard to scour out cold in the CT Valley as well with low N winds

download (62).png

download (63).png

Interesting catch there. One of the keys too will be total Qpf.  If it’s near or over 1”.. it could be Katy Bar the door time in spots 

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Just now, CT Valley Snowman said:

The valley here almost always holds on to cold longer than the models are showing.  I'm expecting mainly sleet and ZR here.  

Looks good for ice there. Also the 12z mesos should be out later and may shed some  light if we can get that kink and weak low near the cape. 

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