CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6z EPS has lots of sleet in SNE. Could be quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: It's so on the fence with the ice storm or snow. I pray to God that it's snow. I don't want the ice, that would just be horrendous for everyone and everything. There's so many chances of storm in this next week it's something I haven't seen in a long long time God doesn’t really give a crap about this. You should pray to ULLR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 6z EPS has lots of sleet in SNE. Could be quite interesting. If northern arctic shortwave doesn't get out ahead of the southern stream....it's going to be not much snow in SNE. Lot of sleet and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: If northern arctic shortwave doesn't get out ahead of the southern stream....it's going to be not much snow in SNE. Lot of sleet and ZR. Need to rip a few jazz tunes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Time to check out..has trended messy and boring atm for my area The 18th looks interesting if it trends a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Time to check out..has trended messy and boring atm for my area The 18th looks interesting if it trends a bit south. But what about the 06z GFS?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'll take my chances with last nights Euro. Of course I can't see soundings. So no clue if there's a sneaky warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I'll take my chances with last nights Euro. Of course I can't see soundings. So no clue if there's a sneaky warm layer. It's pretty good about pike northward for warning snow, but it's not far from a lot more sleet. 06z EPS ticked north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Sleet and zr would bullet proof the pack.. Going to be close here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I hope here along the VT/MA border we can keep things mostly snow. Though a little freezing rain and sleet wouldn't hurt things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Sleet is always closer than it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 You can keep your ice/sleet south, I want my 6-10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Sleet is always closer than it appears I like big front end thump with some sleet to lock it in, and then big cold to keep it in place. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Sleet is always closer than it appears And comes in sooner to boot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: I hope here along the VT/MA border we can keep things mostly snow. Though a little freezing rain and sleet wouldn't hurt things. We are usually pretty safe this far NW but lets see how things trend the next 48 hours. I could see a 4-6" type deal and then a few hours of light PL/FZRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 19 hours ago, SJonesWX said: the sleet is always closer than it appears. 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Sleet is always closer than it appears 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We are usually pretty safe this far NW but lets see how things trend the next 48 hours. I could see a 4-6" type deal and then a few hours of light PL/FZRA Is this for the Tuesday storm? Seems like it may be more than 4-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Looks like a battle between arctic air trying to move in, and the low developing over the south at the end of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: Is this for the Tuesday storm? Seems like it may be more than 4-6"? I like to keep my expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a battle between arctic air trying to move in, and the low developing over the south at the end of the NAM. NAM is still a little phase-y with the two streams. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: For this type of event, it seems a given Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'm sure others have mentioned/ .. are onto this, but my turn of phrases - The operational 00Z GFS/ 06Z GFS blends illustrate an interesting emergence in the handling of next week. The Sunday (14th) thing ...it appears almost like it, and the 16th ...possibly beyond, the model is trying to morph into one protracted light event, with multiple nested intervals of enhancement to moderate. I think this velocity predicament ...driving along progression tendencies, which should in fact tend to 'stretch' fields along the vectors of the streamlines ... that lends support for flat scenario anyway. What we have is a fantastic baroclinic gradient that exists from the TV- off the MA ( ~ ), ...meanwhile, the ballast of the mid level momentum associated with the polar jet, is situated W-N of that surface to 800 mb frontal slope. the restoring wind into the jet ...is up that slope. that's the basic canvas from Sunday clear to latter Wednesday ... it's in all guidance... The Euro/EPS appears to be suppressing the boundary a bit more between the Sunday and Wednesday ...more coherently identifiable impulse/waves along that same axis, and this shuts it all down and probably even offers a sun shot through cirrus in a nagging cryo breeze inbetween ... I think that ows to that guidance having a tendency to curve all surfaces ...or hold on to them .. but the GFS is could be too flat. Hard to say - either could win, and the variances are not huge in a win - loss scenario enough to really impugn the other models performance. but, that variance is the difference between that lull being more described in the EPS/Euro .. where as the GFS camp may be slate gray skies with grits and freezing drizzle , in between two or three impulses of light to moderate snow/mix bursts. In summary the GFS seems is trying to do a weak Feb 1994 surface analog - a "fast flow long event" by virtue of having the boundary statically positioned idyllically for a steady-state WAA draw up the frontal slope, with local time-scale enhancements... Whereas the Euro wants more of a break in there. Either solution could win... 50/50 at this particular assessment point ( to me ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 ICON looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Every model and run just is clueless. Trying to figure out the s/w dance is difficult. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Assume a lot of zr. And if it trends snowier then you’ll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Assume a lot of zr. And if it trends snowier then you’ll be happy Big bag of meh right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Reggie went warm at 12z, looks like the GFS is following...might end up just being a cold rain by the time we get to Tuesday, the arctic air never makes it here. Might have something to do with Sunday completely disappearing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS looking phase-y too....definitely going to be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 looks like the kitchen sink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Wow that is an epic pellet-fest south of the pike that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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