CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 RGEM was pretty warm. Hopefully these tick back SE some. Still think ORH area under the gun. Maybe Ray too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: RGEM was pretty warm. Hopefully these tick back SE some. Still think ORH area under the gun. Maybe Ray too. The guidance is going to verify too warm if they have that mesolow poking northeast into CC bay like the rgem does. If it’s a little less defined like the NAM then it’s prob going to transition to 33F rain further inland and ORH elevations will be the main area in SNE. Below are the rgem and NAM...you can clearly see the rgem points more NE while the NAM is more ENE. Euro was more northeast too which would end up colder. RGEM/Euro look means take ‘em down at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RGEM was pretty warm. Hopefully these tick back SE some. Still think ORH area under the gun. Maybe Ray too. Trending to hit the expected parts. NW CT (probably to Luke) and then the western MA Counties, Northern ORH and western Middlesex. For everyone else, heavy accretion of meh. EDIT: Will just posted my map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Trending to hit the expected parts. NW CT (probably to Luke) and then the western MA Counties, Northern ORH and western Middlesex. For everyone else, heavy accretion of meh. EDIT: Will just posted my map. No need for it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Trending to hit the expected parts. NW CT (probably to Luke) and then the western MA Counties, Northern ORH and western Middlesex. For everyone else, heavy accretion of meh. EDIT: Will just posted my map. I think this line will end up being a little further SE, and areas you described with sleet. Could be wrong but we have seen the models tend to over due warming some in recent weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I think Scooter was talking about snow for ORH and Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think Scooter was talking about snow for ORH and Ray No, maybe some ice. Snow is gone. Phuck the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: No, maybe some ice. Snow is gone. Phuck the Ukie. Just out of curiosity.. why do you think it is all rain outside of those areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The guidance is going to verify too warm if they have that mesolow poking northeast into CC bay like the rgem does. If it’s a little less defined like the NAM then it’s prob going to transition to 33F rain further inland and ORH elevations will be the main area in SNE. Below are the rgem and NAM...you can clearly see the rgem points more NE while the NAM is more ENE. Euro was more northeast too which would end up colder. RGEM/Euro look means take ‘em down at the sfc Yeah we'll see. The meso lows always tough to predict. It's too bad it's a stale airmass vs a fresh polar one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Just out of curiosity.. why do you think it is all rain outside of those areas? That's the highest chance of getting any ice. Not a non chance for you, but could go to a 33 rain there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Kinda sad about the ice. I was hoping to enjoy another week or two of snow. Oh well, we’ll see how it trends today. Don’t have much hopefully, when those warming temperature aloft start showing up on guidance they usually come even if the service verifies colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NWS is giving us all snow on Tuesday and again on Friday, hope it verifies because our winter carnival in town is Saturday the 20th and that'd get our trails into really good shape. They're still pretty good considering we have almost no snow, but we really need a refresher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, TheMainer said: NWS is giving us all snow on Tuesday and again on Friday, hope it verifies because our winter carnival in town is Saturday the 20th and that'd get our trails into really good shape. They're still pretty good considering we have almost no snow, but we really need a refresher. Don't think you have much to worry about up there on the Tuesday one, Not looking that far ahead yet for friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't think you have much to worry about up there on the Tuesday one, Not looking that far ahead yet for friday. Good pack builder up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good pack builder up there. Net pain. I mean gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good pack builder up there. And i was just looking at the mid level temps for up here and they actually cooled a tic or so even at the coast on the Euro 06z from the 0z run other then extreme SME, We don't even sniff 0c at any level that i can see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: And i was just looking at the mid level temps for up here and they actually cooled a tic or so even at the coast on the Euro 06z from the 0z run other then extreme SME, We don't even sniff 0c at any level that i can see. Gotta watch that 850-700mb layer. Euro is a little sneaky around 800 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, OceanStWx said: Gotta watch that 850-700mb layer. Euro is a little sneaky around 800 mb. I can't see 800 on what i'm looking at, But H85 and H7 looked ok on the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I can't see 800 on what i'm looking at, But H85 and H7 looked ok on the 06z run. WeatherBell cross-sections has data in 50 mb increments, because there's a "bullseye" there. It's obviously not interpolating a warmer temp between a colder 850 and 700 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Here's to 35F and rain in Worcester. I've been through 3 terrible ice storms. I'll take anything over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: WeatherBell has data in 50 mb increments, because there's a "bullseye" there. It's obviously not interpolating a warmer temp between a colder 850 and 700 mb. Weather models or SV doesn't have those increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just out of curiosity.. why do you think it is all rain outside of those areas? 6z Euro all of this is frozen for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I’m rooting for plain rain instead of ice fer sher. Mixed bag coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 25 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't think you have much to worry about up there on the Tuesday one, Not looking that far ahead yet for friday. The euro is really holding its ground d for mostly snow for the north of CON to LEW line. GYX hedging towards those warmer models a little bit and has a really good forecast that allows for many possibilities but makes it clear it will be impactf ul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m rooting for plain rain instead of ice fer sher. Mixed bag coming up You’ll ice and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6z Euro all of this is frozen for you I’m just not seeing how anyone within 15 miles or more inland is a rainer . Will seems on top of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Still looking like a nice synoptic 6-12” swath across the northern tier. Remarkably large area of very similar totals being spit out around 8-9”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: You’ll ice and enjoy it. KFS FTMFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Here's to 35F and rain in Worcester. I've been through 3 terrible ice storms. I'll take anything over it. I'd go with 32.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6z Euro all of this is frozen for you I don't think it is over yet on that panel at least for up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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