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February 16th Disco


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

RGEM was pretty warm. Hopefully these tick back SE some. Still think ORH area under the gun. Maybe Ray too.

The guidance is going to verify too warm if they have that mesolow poking northeast into CC bay like the rgem does. If it’s a little less defined like the NAM then it’s prob going to transition to 33F rain further inland and ORH elevations will be the main area in SNE. 

Below are the rgem and NAM...you can clearly see the rgem points more NE while the NAM is more ENE. Euro was more northeast too which would end up colder. RGEM/Euro look means take ‘em down at the sfc  

image.thumb.png.968239c6fe2f2bb5ca5f9796c883bd72.png

image.thumb.png.b173bd150726464fe430df30f8b8077c.png

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

RGEM was pretty warm. Hopefully these tick back SE some. Still think ORH area under the gun. Maybe Ray too.

Trending to hit the expected parts.  NW CT (probably to Luke) and then the western MA Counties, Northern ORH and western Middlesex.

For everyone else, heavy accretion of meh.

 

EDIT:   Will just posted my map.  :)

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13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Trending to hit the expected parts.  NW CT (probably to Luke) and then the western MA Counties, Northern ORH and western Middlesex.

For everyone else, heavy accretion of meh.

 

EDIT:   Will just posted my map.  :)

I think this line will end up being a little further SE, and areas you described with sleet. Could be wrong but we have seen the models tend to over due warming some in recent weeks.

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50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The guidance is going to verify too warm if they have that mesolow poking northeast into CC bay like the rgem does. If it’s a little less defined like the NAM then it’s prob going to transition to 33F rain further inland and ORH elevations will be the main area in SNE. 

Below are the rgem and NAM...you can clearly see the rgem points more NE while the NAM is more ENE. Euro was more northeast too which would end up colder. RGEM/Euro look means take ‘em down at the sfc  

image.thumb.png.968239c6fe2f2bb5ca5f9796c883bd72.png

image.thumb.png.b173bd150726464fe430df30f8b8077c.png

Yeah we'll see. The meso lows always tough to predict. It's too bad it's a stale airmass vs a fresh polar one.

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1 minute ago, TheMainer said:

NWS is giving us all snow on Tuesday and again on Friday, hope it verifies because our winter carnival in town is Saturday the 20th and that'd get our trails into really good shape. They're still pretty good considering we have almost no snow, but we really need a refresher.

StormTotalSnow.png

Don't think you have much to worry about up there on the Tuesday one, Not looking that far ahead yet for friday.

image.thumb.png.b7f7acc2d80871afb23c2515e4bcd699.png

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good pack builder up there. 

And i was just looking at the mid level temps for up here and they actually cooled a tic or so even at the coast on the Euro 06z from the 0z run other then extreme SME, We don't even sniff 0c at any level that i can see.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And i was just looking at the mid level temps for up here and they actually cooled a tic or so even at the coast on the Euro 06z from the 0z run other then extreme SME, We don't even sniff 0c at any level that i can see.

Gotta watch that 850-700mb layer. Euro is a little sneaky around 800 mb.

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25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Don't think you have much to worry about up there on the Tuesday one, Not looking that far ahead yet for friday.

image.thumb.png.b7f7acc2d80871afb23c2515e4bcd699.png

The euro is really holding its ground d for mostly snow for the north of CON to LEW line.  

GYX hedging towards those warmer models a little bit and has a really good forecast that allows for many possibilities but makes it clear it will be impactf

ul.

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