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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

This one definitely has a look for prolonged icing. It's not really a pattern to send the warm front screaming to CYUL.  That helps to keep the forcing nearby and fight off the tendency to turn to WAA drizzle. 

Lots of light stuff Monday and then the heavier stuff Tuesday. Hopefully over the chicken coops.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't see why Tuesday won't keep trending warmer. Strong SE ridge, no high whatsoever. Nothing to keep the CAD in place beyond current snow cover. 

The system is weak overall and moves quickly so it won't be a big torchy cutter or anything. A cold rain looking more likely for a lot of places. 

There's a high branching in there, and there's not really room to run north with that big TPV lobe hanging out there. 

I think it's interesting that guidance is subtly trying to build the high in Quebec Tuesday morning despite the surface ridge trying to retreat before that time.

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't see why Tuesday won't keep trending warmer. Strong SE ridge, no high whatsoever. Nothing to keep the CAD in place beyond current snow cover. 

The system is weak overall and moves quickly so it won't be a big torchy cutter or anything. A cold rain looking more likely for a lot of places. 

We sort of lose the good polar push. Just sort of farting around and getting pulled down on NE winds, but not refreshed until it departs. Still good for the higher spots like ORH hills and maybe interior NE MA and down into NW CT. 

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Big, big caveat is that all these ice forecasts are going to be flat surface accumulation (which is typically about 75% of QPF). That's how HQ wants us doing it now, even though anecdotally the Northeast has been radial forecasts. 

I suspect until we can iron out a new criteria for warnings, that's going to lead to some eye popping forecasts for fairly "routine" ice storm amounts.

Any ice on roads should yield warnings jmho.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Any ice on roads should yield warnings jmho.

Nearly impossible to predict how frozen or freezing precip is going to react on roads. All depends on how they are treated. And the predictability horizon for something like the FWD accident is pretty small.

I think once you know it's freezing on roads you gotta hammer something out the door to keep more people from getting on the streets.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Nearly impossible to predict how frozen or freezing precip is going to react on roads. All depends on how they are treated. And the predictability horizon for something like the FWD accident is pretty small.

I think once you know it's freezing on roads you gotta hammer something out the door to keep more people from getting on the streets.

More people die from black ice and minimal icing than any other winter event.  Emphasis should be redirected to road sensors and automatic warning systems

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

More people die from black ice and minimal icing than any other winter event.  Emphasis should be redirected to road sensors and automatic warning systems

And we're actually quite terrible at black ice forecasting. Super high false alarm rate given the amount of times it's mentioned in a forecast. 

I would love to have more road sensors but we barely have enough funding to fix our current data sources. I'm not holding out much hope for that changing anytime soon.

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

And we're actually quite terrible at black ice forecasting. Super high false alarm rate given the amount of times it's mentioned in a forecast. 

I would love to have more road sensors but we barely have enough funding to fix our current data sources. I'm not holding out much hope for that changing anytime soon.

New Admin is science loving? Infrastructure please

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This could be pretty icy over the interior. Gotta watch for the mesolow too. Some guidance is trying to poke a mesolow up to the northeast. Not all guidance (NAM doesn’t really have it but rgem and to lesser extent euro)....but if we pop that mesolow up into CC bay and northeastward, then it’s goodnight for warming above freezing at the sfc at least to like 128 and maybe even a little closer to coast.  

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