OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We take that. This one definitely has a look for prolonged icing. It's not really a pattern to send the warm front screaming to CYUL. That helps to keep the forcing nearby and fight off the tendency to turn to WAA drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Difference this time around is the SE ridge. That hasn’t been around really this year. So now you have a SE ridge, gulf wave, and some energy trying to phase just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: This one definitely has a look for prolonged icing. It's not really a pattern to send the warm front screaming to CYUL. That helps to keep the forcing nearby and fight off the tendency to turn to WAA drizzle. Lots of light stuff Monday and then the heavier stuff Tuesday. Hopefully over the chicken coops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Difference this time around is the SE ridge. That hasn’t been around really this year. So now you have a SE ridge, gulf wave, and some energy trying to phase just a bit. By Monday 12z runs, the ORH crew will be "surprised" to learn they are looking at 5-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: So mostly plain rain for us plain old coastal folks? Might be some light ice to start later Monday, but verbatim the meat of it might be rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 00z GFS puts down some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: By Monday 12z runs, the ORH crew will be "surprised" to learn they are looking at 5-7". Not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Not this time. GFS wants the 850 low over Phin's fanny. The whole set up fits the New England ice climo pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Don't see why Tuesday won't keep trending warmer. Strong SE ridge, no high whatsoever. Nothing to keep the CAD in place beyond current snow cover. The system is weak overall and moves quickly so it won't be a big torchy cutter or anything. A cold rain looking more likely for a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: GFS wants the 850 low over Phin's fanny. The whole set up fits the New England ice climo pretty well. Add the Canadian to the torch too. And we know that climo well. Away from those spots that downslope off the ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Don't see why Tuesday won't keep trending warmer. Strong SE ridge, no high whatsoever. Nothing to keep the CAD in place beyond current snow cover. The system is weak overall and moves quickly so it won't be a big torchy cutter or anything. A cold rain looking more likely for a lot of places. There's a high branching in there, and there's not really room to run north with that big TPV lobe hanging out there. I think it's interesting that guidance is subtly trying to build the high in Quebec Tuesday morning despite the surface ridge trying to retreat before that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Don't see why Tuesday won't keep trending warmer. Strong SE ridge, no high whatsoever. Nothing to keep the CAD in place beyond current snow cover. The system is weak overall and moves quickly so it won't be a big torchy cutter or anything. A cold rain looking more likely for a lot of places. We sort of lose the good polar push. Just sort of farting around and getting pulled down on NE winds, but not refreshed until it departs. Still good for the higher spots like ORH hills and maybe interior NE MA and down into NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: GFS wants the 850 low over Phin's fanny. The whole set up fits the New England ice climo pretty well. A little snow to ice is fine. Just no 57 degree upslope-enhanced atmospheric rivers for 24 hours straight. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: A little snow to ice is fine. Just no 57 degree upslope-enhanced atmospheric rivers for 24 hours straight. Thanks. Maybe later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe later this week. Quiet, monster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might be some light ice to start later Monday, but verbatim the meat of it might be rain. Where's the freezing line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe later this week. Tippy is singing "Repent, the end is near" might as well bookend this stretch of cold and snow with another tropical rainer just like the grinch storm...yin to the yang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Where's the freezing line? You may not sniff it at all. It’s very close to almost my area through srn RI until Tuesday when it moves NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Chicken coopless on the new GFS? GGEM. Hunchie I think you may have a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Big, big caveat is that all these ice forecasts are going to be flat surface accumulation (which is typically about 75% of QPF). That's how HQ wants us doing it now, even though anecdotally the Northeast has been radial forecasts. I suspect until we can iron out a new criteria for warnings, that's going to lead to some eye popping forecasts for fairly "routine" ice storm amounts. Any ice on roads should yield warnings jmho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Any ice on roads should yield warnings jmho. Nearly impossible to predict how frozen or freezing precip is going to react on roads. All depends on how they are treated. And the predictability horizon for something like the FWD accident is pretty small. I think once you know it's freezing on roads you gotta hammer something out the door to keep more people from getting on the streets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Lol Scooter getting nervous and trying to make this rain to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Nearly impossible to predict how frozen or freezing precip is going to react on roads. All depends on how they are treated. And the predictability horizon for something like the FWD accident is pretty small. I think once you know it's freezing on roads you gotta hammer something out the door to keep more people from getting on the streets. More people die from black ice and minimal icing than any other winter event. Emphasis should be redirected to road sensors and automatic warning systems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: More people die from black ice and minimal icing than any other winter event. Emphasis should be redirected to road sensors and automatic warning systems And we're actually quite terrible at black ice forecasting. Super high false alarm rate given the amount of times it's mentioned in a forecast. I would love to have more road sensors but we barely have enough funding to fix our current data sources. I'm not holding out much hope for that changing anytime soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: And we're actually quite terrible at black ice forecasting. Super high false alarm rate given the amount of times it's mentioned in a forecast. I would love to have more road sensors but we barely have enough funding to fix our current data sources. I'm not holding out much hope for that changing anytime soon. New Admin is science loving? Infrastructure please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: New Admin is science loving? Infrastructure please Same Senate. Call your reps! I'm on board for mesonets for all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Congrats PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats PF. Is this just a little zr to a very cold rain for most of us? I had a nice snow shower with a coating last night so I figure the snow part is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This could be pretty icy over the interior. Gotta watch for the mesolow too. Some guidance is trying to poke a mesolow up to the northeast. Not all guidance (NAM doesn’t really have it but rgem and to lesser extent euro)....but if we pop that mesolow up into CC bay and northeastward, then it’s goodnight for warming above freezing at the sfc at least to like 128 and maybe even a little closer to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6Z GFS doesn’t look terrible for NNE, especially the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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