Hoth Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: we've gotten a half inch of ice accretion in central CT the past two winters, and that does plenty of damage, I don't think anyone in here wants to see 1" of ice even Kevin lol that would be very bad. I think ground zero will be a wide swath of .4 to .6" ice accretion. Yes, trees took a pretty good beating from ice the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 28 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Just read the last 8 pages. So Cantore will be dancing in thunder-ice somewhere in CT? Yeah just read it and not sure what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: He said 1-1.25" in the video and this euro forecast from last night showed just that, I wonder what town. Oregon City, just S of Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM warm sectors cstl SE areas LOL. Just keeps amping up. Ice more nrn ORH into SNH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 What a terrible run lol. Even pelts PF and Phin. Oh well. Can we finally put the Ukie in a coffin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nam back to being the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Nam back to being the Nam. Just continues what the 18z guidance did though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just continues what the 18z guidance did though. 3k was not as torched up here, It will tick back SE, All systems have this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 That's not a lot of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 H85 furnaces on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah maybe something like that. I dunno...put me in the sleet and snow camp vs the ice. Just want to build it up a little more. No doubt would rather have that just don’t think we have much of a chance at snow and sleet south of the pike, seems like winter is fading fast, as tip said the February sun is getting strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Pretty sultry at 850. Maybe GON-TAN can mix some of that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM doing its overamped thing again at the 2-3 day range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What’s strange about that… I’ve lived in this part of the country for 35 years and I dont recall that kind of confidence interval for ice in Northern New Jersey and Fitchburg mass at the same time that is a strange scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, RDRY said: NAM doing its overamped thing again at the 2-3 day range. I think it’s too far northwest too done that all year long it’s been doing it for 25 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 We'll see. Close to ripping back a few White Claws on the deck Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: We'll see. Close to ripping back a few White Claws on the deck Tuesday. As long as there not mango's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What’s strange about that… I’ve lived in this part of the country for 35 years and I dont recall that kind of confidence interval for ice in Northern New Jersey and Fitchburg mass at the same time that is a strange scenario Big, big caveat is that all these ice forecasts are going to be flat surface accumulation (which is typically about 75% of QPF). That's how HQ wants us doing it now, even though anecdotally the Northeast has been radial forecasts. I suspect until we can iron out a new criteria for warnings, that's going to lead to some eye popping forecasts for fairly "routine" ice storm amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Almost like the system is trying to rush the backing off of the arctic isolation slated to begin in earnest over the next two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Big, big caveat is that all these ice forecasts are going to be flat surface accumulation (which is typically about 75% of QPF). That's how HQ wants us doing it now, even though anecdotally the Northeast has been radial forecasts. I suspect until we can iron out a new criteria for warnings, that's going to lead to some eye popping forecasts for fairly "routine" ice storm amounts. Yes! I posted about that earlier today that it’s usually not much higher than 80% even in best case scenario do micro physical phenomenon ...kinetic energy upon impact and splashing you just can’t freeze at all then if the temperature is getting up closer to freezing you’re definitely not gonna be able to do it as quickly and then I’ll take even more away. I think in 2008 Worcester County had an average 3 to 3 1/2 inches of rain and what did they get out of that accr 1.3 1.6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This just feels like a NAM too far northwest scenario to me and as it comes back Southeast in future guidance it may shave a little of the QPF off a typical buyers beware corrections for that model for things that are relaying inside of 60 hours. i’m also a little bit surprised honestly that the 500 mill bar looks a little stronger after keeping with the seasonal tempo going weaker ... this is the first one I recall that’s going the other way getting closer - interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Gradient is closer. Still a decent amount of time left at a solid 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Gfs also a furnace. Almost time for the claws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Gfs also a furnace. Almost time for the claws. So mostly plain rain for us plain old coastal folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Didn’t think this one would go to shite but so it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs also a furnace. Almost time for the claws. You can almost envision a scenario where KTOL sits at 33 and rain because it's so torchy aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 still think there's time to tick SE, not buying 850 0c almost to the Canadian border, but, we went from decent storm to ice storm in a couple days, in the usual NW biases, let's hope it works out white and not ice, because that would make for an awful travel trip, for me anyway..and anyone south of mid NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: You can almost envision a scenario where KTOL sits at 33 and rain because it's so torchy aloft. We take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Not worried here yet. Trend has been SE overall this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Not worried here yet. Trend has been SE overall this winter. I don't believe this one will be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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