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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

we've gotten a half inch of ice accretion in central CT the past two winters, and that does plenty of damage, I don't think anyone in here wants to see 1" of ice even Kevin lol that would be very bad. I think ground zero will be a wide swath of .4 to .6" ice accretion. 

Yes, trees took a pretty good beating from ice the last few years.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah maybe something like that. I dunno...put me in the sleet and snow camp vs the ice. Just want to build it up a little more.

No doubt would rather have that just don’t think we have much of a chance at snow and sleet south of the pike, seems like winter is fading fast, as tip said the February sun is getting strong! 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What’s strange about that… I’ve lived in this part of the country for 35 years and I dont recall that kind of confidence interval for ice in Northern New Jersey and Fitchburg mass at the same time that is a strange scenario

Big, big caveat is that all these ice forecasts are going to be flat surface accumulation (which is typically about 75% of QPF). That's how HQ wants us doing it now, even though anecdotally the Northeast has been radial forecasts. 

I suspect until we can iron out a new criteria for warnings, that's going to lead to some eye popping forecasts for fairly "routine" ice storm amounts.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Big, big caveat is that all these ice forecasts are going to be flat surface accumulation (which is typically about 75% of QPF). That's how HQ wants us doing it now, even though anecdotally the Northeast has been radial forecasts. 

I suspect until we can iron out a new criteria for warnings, that's going to lead to some eye popping forecasts for fairly "routine" ice storm amounts.

Yes!

I posted about that earlier today that it’s usually not much higher than 80% even in best case scenario do micro physical phenomenon ...kinetic energy upon impact and splashing

you just can’t freeze at all then if the temperature is getting up closer to freezing you’re definitely not gonna be able to do it as quickly and then I’ll take even more away. 
 

I think in 2008 Worcester County had an average 3 to 3 1/2 inches of rain and what did they get out of that accr 1.3 1.6?

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This just feels like a NAM too far northwest scenario to me and as it comes back Southeast in future guidance it may shave a little of the QPF off

a typical buyers beware corrections for that model for things that are relaying inside of 60 hours. 
 

i’m also a little bit surprised honestly that the 500 mill bar looks a little stronger after keeping with the seasonal tempo going weaker ... this is the first one I recall that’s going the other way getting closer - interesting

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still think there's time to tick SE, not buying 850 0c almost to the Canadian border, but, we went from decent storm to ice storm in a couple days, in the usual NW biases, let's hope it works out white and not ice, because that would make for an awful travel trip, for me anyway..and anyone south of mid NNE

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