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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

How high up is the warmth?  If this above 925 I think you can count on sleet.

It also depends on the max warm layer temp. You usually want at least 3-4C for the warm layer for ZR. 

But even if that happens and the cold layer is more than -6C and like 500m deep, then it will be pellets anyway. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m not sure how they run their algorythym but it looks too heavy on zr where it should be ip.

Agreed. There would def be a thin band of decent ZR, but based on 850 and 700 temps, hard to get that much ZR as far north as it shows. I’d bet on a lot of sleet instead. But we’re probably not at the final solution either. 

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20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

A004DA16-B4E1-4918-8698-A5623076317C.png

That doesn't seem right  -

I mean, that nearly matches this thing's fast movement and oh is that's cumulative for 85 hours then?

I'm asking because that requires a lot - duh...  But we don't really get proficiency in accretion that utilizes all the QPF. 

I think it's like 80% ... I almost think of it like that weird riddle-question about should you run through the rain, or walk, because if you walk, you spend more time in the rain, but if you run, ...you collect the rain drops you would have missed if you were not there, so which is better... ( you know? that riddle-question that makes you want to punch the person's face?)  With icing, ... light fall rates in very cold temperatures end up light pingers...but...bump it closer to say 29.5 .. and the proficiency at accretion is very high ratio ... maybe better than 80 by some.  But step up the intensity of fall rates and splashing and other micro-physical effects, like kinetic energy of impact and increasing LH of phase change..   Either way, it's not like if 1" of liq equiv falls, there's 1" liq eguiv of riming - 

But I guess if that 72 to 84 hours worth -

Thing in, Pivotals attending QPF doesn't show it appreciably collecting prior to 06Z Tuesday across the region... so, that seems to suggest this product assuming whatever falls accretes - I wonder if this is flat rate -

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4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Man the new WPC QPF is getting higher for NNE.  For Dendrite-land it looks like maybe .75 for the Monday Tuesday deal and then 1.25 for the Thurs Fri deal.  With any help on ratios, which we might get, that is 2 feet in about 4 days.

Under. But any snow should end up around 10:1. We may be dealing with pellies late week though.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Under. But any snow should end up around 10:1. We may be dealing with pellies late week though.

I would think this would trend a bit colder no?  We'll see about the pellets, but anyhow should be 2 warning level events.  I've been watching the WPC Qpf all week and it has been trending upwards.  I want to enjoy a few days of deep pack before spring comes.  

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16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I would think this would trend a bit colder no?  We'll see about the pellets, but anyhow should be 2 warning level events.  I've been watching the WPC Qpf all week and it has been trending upwards.  I want to enjoy a few days of deep pack before spring comes.  

Gonna need a lot of trending to get all snow out of the late week system. 

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42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one wants sleet 

Far preferable to big ZR for this forester.  1998 was mostly sleet where we live now (maybe 1/4 of precip was ZR) while it was all ZR in Gardiner where we lived in Jan. 1998.  There were more and bigger broken branches/trees on our 0.8-acre house lot in Gardiner than on our 100-times-bigger woodlot in the foothills.  The change from ZR-some/no-IP and IP-some-ZR was about 10 miles south of here, recognizable in 1998 by small/medium branches on the ground/huge branches and whole trees down.

From this distance, 16th looks all snow, 18-19 SN/IP.

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35 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Man the new WPC QPF is getting higher for NNE.  For Dendrite-land it looks like maybe .75 for the Monday Tuesday deal and then 1.25 for the Thurs Fri deal.  With any help on ratios, which we might get, that is 2 feet in about 4 days.

GFS is doing its usual qpf build-up from this distance.  If its pattern repeats, modeled qpf will peak tomorrow then shrink to about half by Tuesday morning.  :P

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