ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: How high up is the warmth? If this above 925 I think you can count on sleet. It also depends on the max warm layer temp. You usually want at least 3-4C for the warm layer for ZR. But even if that happens and the cold layer is more than -6C and like 500m deep, then it will be pellets anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m not sure how they run their algorythym but it looks too heavy on zr where it should be ip. Agreed. There would def be a thin band of decent ZR, but based on 850 and 700 temps, hard to get that much ZR as far north as it shows. I’d bet on a lot of sleet instead. But we’re probably not at the final solution either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Seems like sleet. I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 And it’s probably still trending back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Nice trends all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice trends all around Where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 No one wants sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: That doesn't seem right - I mean, that nearly matches this thing's fast movement and oh is that's cumulative for 85 hours then? I'm asking because that requires a lot - duh... But we don't really get proficiency in accretion that utilizes all the QPF. I think it's like 80% ... I almost think of it like that weird riddle-question about should you run through the rain, or walk, because if you walk, you spend more time in the rain, but if you run, ...you collect the rain drops you would have missed if you were not there, so which is better... ( you know? that riddle-question that makes you want to punch the person's face?) With icing, ... light fall rates in very cold temperatures end up light pingers...but...bump it closer to say 29.5 .. and the proficiency at accretion is very high ratio ... maybe better than 80 by some. But step up the intensity of fall rates and splashing and other micro-physical effects, like kinetic energy of impact and increasing LH of phase change.. Either way, it's not like if 1" of liq equiv falls, there's 1" liq eguiv of riming - But I guess if that 72 to 84 hours worth - Thing in, Pivotals attending QPF doesn't show it appreciably collecting prior to 06Z Tuesday across the region... so, that seems to suggest this product assuming whatever falls accretes - I wonder if this is flat rate - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Not saying this is LI’s ice storm by any stretch but I am saying someone there or close going to get sig ice from this. I see a lot of similarities ... http://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: No one wants sleet Sleet is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Sleet is fun. I’ll take sleet over rain in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Hopefully mostly wet here.... looks like mostly nuisance stuff for this area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Sleet is fun. It is. Especially on top of a decent pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Man the new WPC QPF is getting higher for NNE. For Dendrite-land it looks like maybe .75 for the Monday Tuesday deal and then 1.25 for the Thurs Fri deal. With any help on ratios, which we might get, that is 2 feet in about 4 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Can someone get on the horn with nws and let 'em know their websites hosed for afd's ? ah, they were probably updating - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Man the new WPC QPF is getting higher for NNE. For Dendrite-land it looks like maybe .75 for the Monday Tuesday deal and then 1.25 for the Thurs Fri deal. With any help on ratios, which we might get, that is 2 feet in about 4 days. Under. But any snow should end up around 10:1. We may be dealing with pellies late week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Under. But any snow should end up around 10:1. We may be dealing with pellies late week though. I would think this would trend a bit colder no? We'll see about the pellets, but anyhow should be 2 warning level events. I've been watching the WPC Qpf all week and it has been trending upwards. I want to enjoy a few days of deep pack before spring comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I would think this would trend a bit colder no? We'll see about the pellets, but anyhow should be 2 warning level events. I've been watching the WPC Qpf all week and it has been trending upwards. I want to enjoy a few days of deep pack before spring comes. Gonna need a lot of trending to get all snow out of the late week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Gonna need a lot of trending to get all snow out of the late week system. Although I guess the euro is close to an all snow thump before we slot aloft. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Gonna need a lot of trending to get all snow out of the late week system. I clearly have not been following that one closely enough. But yeah we know those types of changeover scenarios...a nice heavy thump then a big of sleet and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 What's interesting about the Ukie is that after that 0z warm burp run last night, it went back to what it had shown for the most part in the prior 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No one wants sleet Far preferable to big ZR for this forester. 1998 was mostly sleet where we live now (maybe 1/4 of precip was ZR) while it was all ZR in Gardiner where we lived in Jan. 1998. There were more and bigger broken branches/trees on our 0.8-acre house lot in Gardiner than on our 100-times-bigger woodlot in the foothills. The change from ZR-some/no-IP and IP-some-ZR was about 10 miles south of here, recognizable in 1998 by small/medium branches on the ground/huge branches and whole trees down. From this distance, 16th looks all snow, 18-19 SN/IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Reggie damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 35 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Man the new WPC QPF is getting higher for NNE. For Dendrite-land it looks like maybe .75 for the Monday Tuesday deal and then 1.25 for the Thurs Fri deal. With any help on ratios, which we might get, that is 2 feet in about 4 days. GFS is doing its usual qpf build-up from this distance. If its pattern repeats, modeled qpf will peak tomorrow then shrink to about half by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, tamarack said: GFS is doing its usual qpf build-up from this distance. If its pattern repeats, modeled qpf will peak tomorrow then shrink to about half by Tuesday morning. the gulf is open for bidness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Reggie damage Not going to happen. Time for CMC to retire the RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Reggie damage 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 For some narrow band this could be one of those events where neither icing nor snow makes the Warning cut ...but the impact proves those distinctions irrelevant - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Boy ... I betcha he feels 'inadequate' standing next to that - 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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