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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

NAM is a solid thump for the RT 2 corridor.  Hopefully we get a few tics S/E to get more folks in the game. 

I feel like this is coming back SE now at 12z. ICON and RGEM are notable ticks back SE. Still a frozen/freezing mess for much of SNE but the sleet/snow line is a lot closer now. 

As i said to scott earlier this AM, that is a tight fit to rip that vortmax around the PV lobe. It’s decaying on approach because of that squeeze...Tip actually made a good post about it earlier. 

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41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Canadian almost with a tucky look. We’ll have to watch that sneaky Ageo flow around here. 

Yeah...  I mean... this is kind of a mesmerizing 500 mb look, run-to-run, and distracting.  Hasn't even gotten into those age-old, tried-and-true local studies crap with burrier/"tuck" jets this, and index-finger-rule model error for BL resistance that. Those super uber detailed popsicle head ache aspects that always win ( btw ..) that simply will bust ZR lines farther S... Whether that means more IP depends more on mid level stuff.

This has a protracted front side grits, freezing dz, flurries and light snow... from there, one of two options in my mind: it's either going back more snow in guidance, or a mostly ice verifies.  This is not raining... that's total bullshit bad modeling - straw man..just sayn'

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Colder

sn10_acc.us_ne (2).png

This is what this looked like to me yesterday as the course of more likely outcome - whether that's the course of least regretted gamble ..heh... not sure - but just apriori existentialism having lived through this climate for decades, combined with actual theoretical Meteorology ... not surprising this run re-emerged after the 00z may or may not have attempted futilely to refute the former two supplying "objective wisdom" ...

It could still bust more IP and knock that back... We've seen 2,000 meter tall sleet columns before ..albeit rare.  But cold temperatures win in the low levels...I'm personally > 75% confident of that given everything, regardless. 

Oh, but, relative to what really falls, I'd maybe take 2-3" off the top of that along the southern half of the snow, and maybe actually add 2" in the N half.  The southern aspect will be 11:1 snow with IP hammers ... and that'll keep it in the 6" .. 7.5" range ( I think..) while this cold, likely being under sold ... will beef up ratios closer to 15:1 so those 10:1 numbers could actually be low N of ~ Pike. 

Something like that with IP/ZR in CT/RI seems to fit climo too for this sort of smearing event/isentropic ... but the ice shouldn't be undersold where it occurs, either; that looks like a narrow axis of efficient accretion with this beautiful supply of undercutting tuck winds/ageo drain set up. 

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