DavisStraight Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: Lovely, at least the pack will have some protection... I remember in 2012 we had a good pack and we got icing on top. I could actually walk on top of the pack and it was close to 3 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 29 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Excuse to head to Pit2.... That's where you will want to be for this one, Haven't been able to say that much this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 NAM is a solid thump for the RT 2 corridor. Hopefully we get a few tics S/E to get more folks in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12z Reggie ticked SE some from 06z, But not saying much seeing it was the furthest NW but still out of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: NAM is a solid thump for the RT 2 corridor. Hopefully we get a few tics S/E to get more folks in the game. I feel like this is coming back SE now at 12z. ICON and RGEM are notable ticks back SE. Still a frozen/freezing mess for much of SNE but the sleet/snow line is a lot closer now. As i said to scott earlier this AM, that is a tight fit to rip that vortmax around the PV lobe. It’s decaying on approach because of that squeeze...Tip actually made a good post about it earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The new EPS is running parallel on SV now before it goes live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's where you will want to be for this one, Haven't been able to say that much this season. They just finished building my dock---so going to see that is a plausible excuse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 GFS a little less amped and a tick east from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I’ll take a page out of Kevin’s playbook, It’s 6-10” and call it a day for CNE/NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: I’ll take a page out of Kevin’s playbook, It’s 6-10” and call it a day for CNE/NNE. You take the snow and we’ll take heavy ice. Tit for tat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Goofus 16 is really warm, rains almost to CNE, doesn't that model run too cold? Yikes.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: I remember in 2012 we had a good pack and we got icing on top. I could actually walk on top of the pack and it was close to 3 feet. Not 2012...that winter had no snow. You mean maybe 13?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 53 minutes ago, dryslot said: The new EPS is running parallel on SV now before it goes live. Been on lab.weathermodels.com under international forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Goofus 16 is really warm, rains almost to CNE, doesn't that model run too cold? Yikes.... It is quite mild. Probably eroding cold too fast near and north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Made drains in the 14 inch snow pack for rain drains. Will freeze up after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Been on lab.weathermodels.com under international forecasts. Looks like may 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is quite mild. Probably eroding cold too fast near and north of pike. 06z was even warmer. All these are probably going to cool as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z was even warmer. All these are probably going to cool as we get closer. Yep. Canadian almost with a tucky look. We’ll have to watch that sneaky Ageo flow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Ukie got way colder. That looks like there could be a decent amount of snow in SNE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep. Canadian almost with a tucky look. We’ll have to watch that sneaky Ageo flow around here. Yeah... I mean... this is kind of a mesmerizing 500 mb look, run-to-run, and distracting. Hasn't even gotten into those age-old, tried-and-true local studies crap with burrier/"tuck" jets this, and index-finger-rule model error for BL resistance that. Those super uber detailed popsicle head ache aspects that always win ( btw ..) that simply will bust ZR lines farther S... Whether that means more IP depends more on mid level stuff. This has a protracted front side grits, freezing dz, flurries and light snow... from there, one of two options in my mind: it's either going back more snow in guidance, or a mostly ice verifies. This is not raining... that's total bullshit bad modeling - straw man..just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Colder 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie got way colder. That looks like there could be a decent amount of snow in SNE. Wow showing 8+ inch CT snows within 90 hr. I want it I want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 In the Second Best Model™ we pray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Colder While I'm inclined to toss that, I really hope UK's not hitting the sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Colder This is what this looked like to me yesterday as the course of more likely outcome - whether that's the course of least regretted gamble ..heh... not sure - but just apriori existentialism having lived through this climate for decades, combined with actual theoretical Meteorology ... not surprising this run re-emerged after the 00z may or may not have attempted futilely to refute the former two supplying "objective wisdom" ... It could still bust more IP and knock that back... We've seen 2,000 meter tall sleet columns before ..albeit rare. But cold temperatures win in the low levels...I'm personally > 75% confident of that given everything, regardless. Oh, but, relative to what really falls, I'd maybe take 2-3" off the top of that along the southern half of the snow, and maybe actually add 2" in the N half. The southern aspect will be 11:1 snow with IP hammers ... and that'll keep it in the 6" .. 7.5" range ( I think..) while this cold, likely being under sold ... will beef up ratios closer to 15:1 so those 10:1 numbers could actually be low N of ~ Pike. Something like that with IP/ZR in CT/RI seems to fit climo too for this sort of smearing event/isentropic ... but the ice shouldn't be undersold where it occurs, either; that looks like a narrow axis of efficient accretion with this beautiful supply of undercutting tuck winds/ageo drain set up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Wow showing 8+ inch CT snows within 90 hr Gotta wonder what pivotal has for vertical levels though. If the warm layer is between 850 and 700 and they have no data in between they’ll be estimating snow further north than reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 It’s the weekend. Uncle likes to stay buzzed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hoth said: While I'm inclined to toss that, I really hope UK's not hitting the sauce. Toss that snow map but not the colder look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s the weekend. Uncle likes to stay buzzed Royal Crown or Boone’s Farm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I choose to believe we are going to get 6-12 inches of snow in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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