Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021021118&fh=120 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Maybe a NE region shot Raul? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 It is now looking likely that a coastal storm develops along the DelMarVa coast, while strong high pressure is located over northern New England and southeast Canada. Monday night will be very cold, with lows in the teens throughout the region and perhaps some single digits in northwest MA...and 20s Cape Cod and the Islands. Snow is forecast to develop and overspread the area from southwest to northeast during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Have used a blend of snow-to-liquid ratios on models to be close to the 10:1 level over the interior...much higher than the wet NBM. It is way too early to forecast snow amounts, but right now it would appear to be Advisory-level with an outside chance of a low-end warning-level. The GEFS ensemble mean would indicate 5 to 7 inches, which is fairly high this far out in time. The GFS puts southern New England in the right rear quadrant of a 125-knot jet across northern New England, which provides good lift. The Canadian tries to combine that northern jet with some a jet streak advancing from the southern Appalachians, but the dual jets do not completely link up. Depending on how close the surface low comes to Nantucket, snow could change to sleet and rain in southern RI and interior southeast MA for a time Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation comes to an end Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It is now looking likely that a coastal storm develops along the DelMarVa coast, while strong high pressure is located over northern New England and southeast Canada. Monday night will be very cold, with lows in the teens throughout the region and perhaps some single digits in northwest MA...and 20s Cape Cod and the Islands. Snow is forecast to develop and overspread the area from southwest to northeast during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Have used a blend of snow-to-liquid ratios on models to be close to the 10:1 level over the interior...much higher than the wet NBM. It is way too early to forecast snow amounts, but right now it would appear to be Advisory-level with an outside chance of a low-end warning-level. The GEFS ensemble mean would indicate 5 to 7 inches, which is fairly high this far out in time. The GFS puts southern New England in the right rear quadrant of a 125-knot jet across northern New England, which provides good lift. The Canadian tries to combine that northern jet with some a jet streak advancing from the southern Appalachians, but the dual jets do not completely link up. Depending on how close the surface low comes to Nantucket, snow could change to sleet and rain in southern RI and interior southeast MA for a time Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation comes to an end Tuesday night. James? Nice summary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: James? Nice summary. I thought the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Sounds like a BOS AFD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'm not a fan of all the little pieces of energy out on the playing field in a fast flow. I feel like it's too easy for something to go wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Sounds like a BOS AFD. We have a winner! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 0z GFS digging a little more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Henry's Weather said: We have a winner! Do i get 12" of snow as a prize? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS with a good front end thump for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 37 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: James? Nice summary. Lol..nah I knew it wasn’t James...cuz there are no terms/phrases such as explosive deepening, or very intense laps rates, or the system will Explode over the Gulf Stream and hit the Cape and islands with the heaviest qpf. And the very popular...the intense rates Will cool the column and change the rain to snow on the cape, with 12-16 inches very likely. Those are dead give always for a James post. There wasn’t any of that, so I knew it wasn’t James. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol..nah I knew it wasn’t James...cuz there are no terms/phrases such as explosive deepening, or very intense laps rates, or the system will Explode over the Gulf Stream and hit the Cape and islands with the heaviest qpf. And the very popular...the intense rates Will cool the column and change the rain to snow on the cape, with 12-16 inches very likely. Those are dead give always for a James post. There wasn’t any of that, so I knew it wasn’t James. Very expensive gentlemen's club? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Quick hitting 6-10. What could be bad? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said: Very expensive gentlemen's club? They don't call it Electric Blue for nothing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Muthufukkas galore! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: Muthufukkas galore! 5-7" on the ensemble mean at day 5 is not bad at all....pretty robust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro flipping the script -- 17th now more of a mix event, and the 18th-19th mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Yeah the GFS and Euro both still have the juiced system. Only difference is the Euro is a little slower getting it here and more tucked into the coast. Looks like we're going to battle the R/S line on this this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6z GFS crushes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro has one hell of an icestorm in parts of SNE for the Thursday deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: James? Nice summary. BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The guidance is moving toward the GGEM scenario from a couple cycles ago when it was trying to phase the arctic shortwave with the southern stream. Back then the GGEM was on its own...not anymore. This helps keep the midlevels torched a bit so there is more risk now for mixing/ice than before...and the chances of big warning snows on the front end decrease. We could still go back to the thump look...GFS has it and Ukie maybe but I see a clear trend here. We’ll see if that continues at 12z or not. FWIW, 06z runs kind of trended back just a bit so far. We’ll see what Euro does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I thought the same. BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Meh runs last night. Convoluted mess next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The guidance is moving toward the GGEM scenario from a couple cycles ago when it was trying to phase the arctic shortwave with the southern stream. Back then the GGEM was on its own...not anymore. This helps keep the midlevels torched a bit so there is more risk now for mixing/ice than before...and the chances of big warning snows on the front end decrease. We could still go back to the thump look...GFS has it and Ukie maybe but I see a clear trend here. We’ll see if that continues at 12z or not. FWIW, 06z runs kind of trended back just a bit so far. We’ll see what Euro does. That was a little disappointing to see. If anything I was wondering if it would get more stretched out, but congrats NNE on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Some area in SNE up into CNE is going to see one hell of an icestorm over the next 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That was a little disappointing to see. If anything I was wondering if it would get more stretched out, but congrats NNE on that. Yeah we want the two shortwaves to stay as separate as possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Some area in SNE up into CNE is going to see one hell of an icestorm over the next 7-10 days It's so on the fence with the ice storm or snow. I pray to God that it's snow. I don't want the ice, that would just be horrendous for everyone and everything. There's so many chances of storm in this next week it's something I haven't seen in a long long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: It's so on the fence with the ice storm or snow. I pray to God that it's snow. I don't want the ice, that would just be horrendous for everyone and everything. There's so many chances of storm in this next week it's something I haven't seen in a long long time Hopefully it’s ZR and not sleet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now