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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Harv has temps in the 40s to the NH border

Yeah, that may happen at FROPA mix-out but I don’t think the steady precip will be sniffing 40F over the interior...esp that far north. 

The high temp tomorrow is kind of a trivial statistic....take ORH for example, if it’s like 31-34F all day long and then it mixes out to 42F for an hour or two when the cold front hits, does that matter in terms of the sensible wx? No, not really. 

If that 42F was happening for hours during the bulk of the precip, then it would be a big difference. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, that may happen at FROPA mix-out but I don’t think the steady precip will be sniffing 40F over the interior...esp that far north. 

The high temp tomorrow is kind of a trivial statistic....take ORH for example, if it’s like 31-34F all day long and then it mixes out to 42F for an hour or two when the cold front hits, does that matter in terms of the sensible wx? No, not really. 

If that 42F was happening for hours during the bulk of the precip, then it would be a big difference. 

Not only that, but dews start dropping when the temps spike up a bit with the mixing so the wetbulbs stay a little lower. Like you said, it's not like it's a 40/40 rainfall for hours.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Not only that, but dews start dropping when the temps spike up a bit with the mixing so the wetbulbs stay a little lower. Like you said, it's not like it's a 40/40 rainfall for hours.

Yep, mixing out to 42/24 is way different than raining at that same temp. So in terms of snow melt, that matters. 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The temp was expected to drop, on all models once the heaviest precip arrives winds are SE and push 40⁰ through the majority of CT.  NW CT may stay below 32.

40? No way until maybe west winds. It’ll stay below 32 all night inland . That modeled mesolow prevents SE winds thankfully 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

They had this overall though. It will get a little more SE (coastal front) and then probably comeback west near or after midnight. 

Yup they had the fall around sunset early evening but then by 6z that East /SE flow kicks in .

The area near Manchester to near me is still somewhat up for grabs but 12z Tuesday temps have been ticking Warmer /North with that 32 isotherm for several cycles. Icing looks like Concord SW down thru hill towns in Monads 

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26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not only that, but dews start dropping when the temps spike up a bit with the mixing so the wetbulbs stay a little lower. Like you said, it's not like it's a 40/40 rainfall for hours.

So this won’t be like the Ginch storm with dews of 55-60F all the way to Canada?  Someone seemed very worried about that the past day or two.

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yup they had the fall around sunset early evening but then by 6z that East /SE flow kicks in .

The area near Manchester to near me is still somewhat up for grabs but 12z Tuesday temps have been ticking Warmer /North with that 32 isotherm for several cycles. Icing looks like Concord SW down thru hill towns in Monads 

I'm skeptical it rips past MHT by 12z like alot of runs. I could see it hanging up near the MA border for a while through early tomorrow morning. I could be wrong, but well see what happens. Maybe we tickle up the 32-ish mitigating alot of the glazing. 

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Back roads private walks, driveways, decks, and patios iced up AWT.  Not an ice storm threat though where we have major accretion on limbs and power lines to create widespread damage. Warmth has always been modeled for tomorrow’s my earlier posts showed. Primary precip has even moved in associated with storm.  This current precip is associated with another s/w that pushed south of us.  Temps will trend upwards overnight into tomorrow.  It’s even glazed up here which was not unexpected.

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