Modfan2 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: McGrath says no ice I think this is honestly a borderline event for you; we have seen a warm bias on modeling in recent weeks so I don’t think you torch at all in this and I think you will float 31-34 during this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 How’s the 9z Rap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah the SE ticks don’t happen all the time . Euro has 50’s into much of SNE It will be absolute mediocrity there, and especially here. Southeast New England may be sipping on the white claws and breaking out the t-shirts, parts of the east slopes of the Berks up through hippie and hunchie will probably have a solid glaze of ice,. PF will be dancing in the snow, meanwhile we will have miserable cold rain vomit with temps in the thirties and not much wind with perhaps a little post frontal temp and spike. There's nothing to take comfort in, no damage to be found. If anything, the potential for pack preservation may be the only silver lining in all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Modfan2 said: I think this is honestly a borderline event for you; we have seen a warm bias on modeling in recent weeks so I don’t think you torch at all in this and I think you will float 31-34 during this. Other than today, it looks like it’s above freezing for most of CT other than far NW and valley areas like Simsbury . Probably almost no icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 What is the NAO state for this system? I'm guessing it's climbing fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Other than today, it looks like it’s above freezing for most of CT other than far NW and valley areas like Simsbury . Probably almost no icing Meanwhile I ponder your ice while looking at the Ft Pierce inlet from work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: Meanwhile I ponder your ice while looking at the Ft Pierce inlet from work Can’t wait for those hazy lazy days of summer . No stress and anger over losing a foot of snow in 15 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 55 minutes ago, dendrite said: Congrats YUL on the NAM. Pinging up to Freak. Oh we definitely ping, hoping to grab a dense 6” or so outta this. We walk the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh we definitely ping, hoping to grab a dense 6” or so outta this. We walk the line. Temps are well below freezing up in our area so basically I am treating this as a pack consolidator. It will make it even more bulletproof to add 6 inches of snow and sleet. I am also guessing I stay snow a little longer than the models show. That has been the pattern all winter here in marginal events. Jackson, Berlin, even the ski places turn before me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Temps are well below freezing up in our area so basically I am treating this as a pack consolidator. It will make it even more bulletproof to add 6 inches of snow and sleet. I am also guessing I stay snow a little longer than the models show. That has been the pattern all winter here in marginal events. Jackson, Berlin, even the ski places turn before me. Yeah I think everyone turns pretty much at similar times as it’s marginal up at 700-800mb. Local topography differences don’t seem to matter as much in these. Doesnt matter though, still a nice winter event. Don’t have to talk me into 6” of snow/sleet. That stuff skis so well... smooth and dense. You push a turn, it pushes back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Temps are well below freezing up in our area so basically I am treating this as a pack consolidator. It will make it even more bulletproof to add 6 inches of snow and sleet. I am also guessing I stay snow a little longer than the models show. That has been the pattern all winter here in marginal events. Jackson, Berlin, even the ski places turn before me. Not this time. The warmth is coming in way aloft. It’ll be a south to north deal and not elevation dependent. If you stay snow it’ll be because the lift in the marginal layer was strong enough to cool the column enough to fight off the melting as the warmth advects in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not this time. The warmth is coming in way aloft. It’ll be a south to north deal and not elevation dependent. If you stay snow it’ll be because the lift in the marginal layer was strong enough to cool the column enough to fight off the melting as the warmth advects in. Yeah doesn’t matter, mountain summit or lowest valley... that warmth is way up there. Only way to stay snow is just to fight it off aloft. It’s like I tell folks we’ll mix to sleet and get... “maybe the mountain will stay snow because it seems to be a snowy place.” Maybe it will but not for that reason, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Not this time. The warmth is coming in way aloft. It’ll be a south to north deal and not elevation dependent. If you stay snow it’ll be because the lift in the marginal layer was strong enough to cool the column enough to fight off the melting as the warmth advects in. It'll be fun to watch. As long as it's all well-below freezing at the surface, it's fine. Seems like I avoid any ZR too, which is useless. The pack should be flattened into a solid mass after this. Then Thursday we can start adding fluff back on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The warm tongue has no boundary's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It'll be fun to watch. As long as it's all well-below freezing at the surface, it's fine. Seems like I avoid any ZR too, which is useless. The pack should be flattened into a solid mass after this. Then Thursday we can start adding fluff back on top. It won’t be flattened. It’ll be a net gain in depth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: The warm tongue has no boundary's. Indiscriminately violating weenies across NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That would be wild if we soared into the 40s or 50s. It would only take about six warm hours and rain to erase the 4-7 inch pack here. It's just funny to me, instead of bulletproof it gets gunned down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Current undisturbed pack depth...we’ll see how much is lost in 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: That one could easily have the same thing happen that this one did NAM says what snow, and v16 isn't too enthused for CT. Right now old gfs is most bullish followed by Euro. Ensembles look great, but we've been there before.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Such a shame that this is now tainting what looked to be a snowy vacation week for even the NNE ski areas. Skiing in/on sleet sucks. Hopefully the late-week deal turns out better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: What in the blue fook are you talking about? There is major CAD with this system even if it rains. You aren’t wiping out a double digit high-water content snowpack in central MA with ZR and then 34F rain. Even if it spiked to 45F for a few hours on FROPA that is basically meaningless. You’d have enough trouble wiping out that pack with a 12/25/20 redux. EURO gives a beating to CT's pack, most down to 2-4" patches besides the NW hills.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Current undisturbed pack depth...we’ll see how much is lost in 30 hours. Probably won’t even lose half of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, PWMan said: Such a shame that this is now tainting what looked to be a snowy vacation week for the ski areas. Skiing in/on sleet sucks. Hopefully the late-week deal turns out better. Skiing in sleet can be painful but everyone has face masks, ha. Skiing on sleet is wonderful. It’s so smooth. Freezing rain though and the situation changes quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Probably won’t even lose half of it. My guess is he has 10” left. Maybe even 12” if it’s solid now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: My guess is he has 10” left. Maybe even 12” if it’s solid now. I'd say near 9-10 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Current undisturbed pack depth...we’ll see how much is lost in 30 hours. About 10" here left of the 30" in the past 15 days. Its pretty solid though. top 1" is hard ice. with a layer of ice in the middle as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 He would lose 3-4" tops, Its just going to condense the pack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Maybe something like this happens? I miss that msp. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Probably won’t even lose half of it. He’s got man snow. No powder. All we had was fluff . Anyway .. getting good zr the last hour. Everything is iced up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh we definitely ping, hoping to grab a dense 6” or so outta this. We walk the line. Widdled down to 1-2". Fabulous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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