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February 16th Disco


Bostonseminole
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  On 2/15/2021 at 12:07 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

50-60 degrees across most of the southern half of southern New England . Might have to replace the winter weather advisories with flash flood watches if the euro is right. 

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How funny would it be if Brownsville, TX gets more ice that the Tolland Massif?

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I’ll freely admit that I haven’t followed every detail of this, but WTF happened?? I thought this was as synoptically locked in as you’ll ever see - big slug of moisture ramming into a strong cold high which was supposedly perfectly positioned. Now we’re just getting firehosed.

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  On 2/15/2021 at 12:11 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you getting rid of icestorm except for ALB NW? Should have known when Scoots called me in a great spot we’d lose it 

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We still get .15 to .30" ice accretion but really have to consider the possibility of a pack eating torch Tuesday AM if those NW tracks come to fruition. 

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  On 2/15/2021 at 12:11 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you getting rid of icestorm except for ALB NW? Should have known when Scoots called me in a great spot we’d lose it 

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Take the watches/warnings down if the trend doesn’t stop at 00z. I’ve been pretty confident this would start going back SE at some point but that PV lobe is providing like zero resistance which is weird. You’d think at some point it would. I mean, as recently as 12z runs today, we saw a notable increase in the high presence up north...maybe something weird happened in the 18z runs that was kind of fake. If it’s real, we will see it again at 00z.

Its also kind of amazing to remember that the GGEM utterly de-pantsed the GFS/Ukie/Euro all from about 4-4.5 days out. It was all alone for like 2 cycles on showing the partial phase. 

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  On 2/15/2021 at 12:15 AM, PWMan said:

I’ll freely admit that I haven’t followed every detail of this, but WTF happened?? I thought this was as synoptically licked in as you’ll ever see - big slug of moisture ramming into a strong cold high which was supposedly perfectly positioned. Now we’re just getting firehosed.

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Nothing is ever guaranteed in the weather as I said earlier, this was a delicate setup and not a classic SWFE at all. 

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