CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ahh so what’s the final call? 3” ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3” ice and 6-10" of snow right after to bring it all down In reality most probably see anywhere from .1-.4. A notable event but nothing truly damaging. The real problem might be the fact that none of this will melt until after the storm later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: One aspect I'm seeing in the warmer boundary layered runs .. .heh, which is pretty much all of them at this point - or seems destined that way - is that a bit of a 'COL' has opened up all over New England. The polar high that was so ideally draped west-east through Ontario, and wedging down... really is not 'quite' doing so the same as it appeared to be handled... before this shit the ice/cold rain bed. I was in doubts of a warm BL intrusion .. but upon seeing that 'COL' ( area inside the red ovoid annotation abv - ) I am less head-scratching, and more completely absolved of it. Seriously, if the models are going to 'hold back' the cold sourcing within a mere 36 f'um hours of the onset as a convenience to La Nina ... tough luck. Lol..seriously though that has a bit of a blind-sided short term correction attack on clad intents and purposes about it. Yeah, I guess you can look at the 500 mb "maybe" have inferred that "inverse cold blocking" could happen by the mid level jet... but, we've seen that fire hose over the top in the past, and still ...arctic synoptic air rounds the Maine bend and tucks its way down - maybe an interesting now cast op. But, that lobe of deep cold and the attending surface high up there is really being held way back at this point. I think there will be ageo flow - has to be.. Even the most NW postions take the low SE of Worcester ...so there has to be drain in the interior...question is, is there enough cold in the COL area to keep things freezing... I think that's the supplying air mass to this things BL circus act for SNE and probably S NH /SE VT... I agree Tip. I mentioned that yesterday and how it wasn’t a fresh airmass. The 09z RAP and 12Z NAM did change that and allow more of a press and ageo flow into SNE, but other models backed off. So while I’m not as warm as some of the guidance, they might be hinting at something. Which is why I think highwr confidence in ice might be NW CT into ORH on N and NE. But it’s possible guidance trends a little colder. This isn’t like the day before MLK 2019 event where we had Ray at 12F and the Arctic hounds ready to storm eastern areas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3” ice Looking for legit black / white forecasts . One run it’s congrats.. the next run it’s rains to Maine’s. What is the 9z rap? A morning run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looking for legit black / white forecasts . One run it’s congrats.. the next run it’s rains to Maine’s. What is the 9z rap? A morning run? You'll get your .5 of ice, don't be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: You'll get your .5 of ice, don't be concerned Sounds like it isn't going to be a destroyer like 2008. Resigning myself to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: You'll get your .5 of ice, don't be concerned There’s a lot of confusion from Scoots and others. They’re moving around with each NAM run . TBH..no one knows what’s happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Sounds like it isn't going to be a destroyer like 2008. Resigning myself to it. it won't be, never really was meant to be one. but it certainly will be problematic especially if this won't melt by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Final call for here 2 inches or snow 1/2 inch of sleet and 1/4 inch of zr... Kind of meh but bullet proof the pack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a lot of confusion from Scoots and others. They’re moving around with each NAM run . TBH..no one knows what’s happening As usual, because you aren’t in a good climo big ice spot, it’s good to put you in a lower confidence area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Final call for here 2 inches or snow 1/2 inch of sleet and 1/4 inch of zr... Kind of meh but bullet proof the pack Similar thoughts for here. Maybe a bit more sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18z GFS definitely mixes us... looks like 800mb is where the warmth is centered around +1C for a time. I much prefer the PARA GFS, a couple degrees colder through the column and a nice upslope response on Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As usual, because you aren’t in a good climo big ice spot, it’s good to put you in a lower confidence area. Lots of confusion. They do happen in NE CT . not super often .. but they happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0.5” with the new measuring method is really nbd. You’ll probably lose a couple of rotted oak branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lots of confusion. They do happen in NE CT . not super often .. but they happen Typically union north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Typically union north. If Ray(your Boston accent buddy) had a gun to your knee.. would you go rainer ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 AKATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Typically union north. Almost looks like Ryan circled that specifically around Met Herb. Maybe we can bring down some maple tapping equipment while those just barely to the SW rot around 32.3°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Typically union north. You luv bustin his balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: 0.5” with the new measuring method is really nbd. You’ll probably lose a couple of rotted oak branches. All we need is a little to make it look pretty. OT--is anyone else having trouble with the NWS website? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You luv bustin his balls. He is tied with Ray for big icing events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: He is tied with Ray for big icing events. His his ice bigger then Rays ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: You luv bustin his balls. The person who hypes everything and anything? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: His his ice bigger then Rays ice? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/194311070det.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Almost looks like Ryan circled that specifically around Met Herb. Maybe we can bring down some maple tapping equipment while those just barely to the SW rot around 32.3°. I mean Kevin is on the edge there, so confidence higher NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2008 broke Kevin a bit on icing events. I think he’d even admit it a little. That one stung...he was certain he’d get the big icing in that one and then when he was marginal ice and cold rain at 32.2F, he saw the ORH pics and died a little inside. Hes been trying to make up for it ever since, but you really can’t fully recover from that. It’s like missing out on free tickets to the Atlanta/Patriots SB as a Pats fan or game 7 2003 ALCS tickets as a Yankees fan because you had an in-laws dinner party to attend to and couldn’t get out of it. Sure, you try and make up for it later on but you truly just have to accept you whiffed a once in a generation type event. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean Kevin is on the edge there, so confidence higher NE. We bust him, but I’m actually interested in following his Davis during this to see if he his high enough to hang around 30-31° or if he latently warms to that dreaded boring 32.2°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: We bust him, but I’m actually interested in following his Davis during this to see if he his high enough to hang around 30-31° or if he latently warms to that dreaded boring 32.2°. Deep down he’s probably good for a siggy icing event. Unless 00z runs come in as a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z euro coming in pretty far NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That 18z Euro is a furnace aloft, Worse then 12z, What the hell happened to the SE tics like all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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