Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 36 minutes ago, RedSky said: NAM punched 50 miles further north at 0z Yet the hrrr is all frozen and went SE. Go figure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yet the hrrr is all frozen and went SE. Go figure. Euro/HRRR is the only guidance that ticked colder. Interesting. Euro still changes most over to rain but much more ice than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z hrrr went even colder and is a fierce ice storm N and W of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 WRF mesos also colder and major icing. NAM ticked colder but has that 2ndary rogue batch of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yet the hrrr is all frozen and went SE. Go figure. Nam is coming in with a stronger low Not looking good for coastal areas for Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Looks like a 2-part system next 2 days. 1st part later tonight thru early Tuesday is a potentially significant icing event N and W of 95. On Tuesday a 2nd wave is going to punch some warmer air into the region with moderate to heavy rain. Then back in the freezer and we'll look to Wednesday PM and Thurs next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nam is coming in with a stronger low Not looking good for coastal areas for Tuesday Stronger Tuesday should make for a thumpier Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Trouble in the northern areas 12z nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12z hrrr went even colder and is a fierce ice storm N and W of 95. Yep. NAM shows a serious ice storm for Allentown. Not a surprise. Still a precarious situation for N and W zones.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Trouble in the northern areas 12z nam That's a lot of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 What is the actual chance of an ice storm of .50 or greater out here in Berks, I have the generator poised and ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said: Yep. NAM shows a serious ice storm for Allentown. Not a surprise. Still a precarious situation for N and W zones.... We are still sitting on about 18 inches of compacted snow up here. This is not going to be pretty. There is a glaze on everything from last night freezing drizzle and fog. Going to be a mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Trouble in the northern areas 12z nam And that is the warmest of the mesos and driest with that first part. Definite concern growing N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 What is the actual chance of an ice storm of .50 or greater out here in Berks, I have the generator poised and ready. I wondering the same thing.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuniorTT Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 That is the 12z HRRR map btw, not the 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, penndotguy said: What is the actual chance of an ice storm of .50 or greater out here in Berks, I have the generator poised and ready. I would monitor the NWS forecasts. They are the professionals. I think the hobbyists here have stated the most obvious tho that there is growing concern N and W. Wait and see what the actual zone forecasts look like for your area is my suggestion. And as always better to be prepared than not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I would monitor the NWS forecasts. They are the professionals. I think the hobbyists here have stated the most obvious tho that there is growing concern N and W. Wait and see what the actual zone forecasts look like for your area is my suggestion. And as always better to be prepared than not. the HRR, NAM, WRF suite are showing the bulk of the precipitation done by 7am Tuesday with the low level cold holding til then .. the global models a bit slower with the precipitation and warm the low levels much faster ... the prior suite is usually better at picking up this type of scenario close in.. we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I would monitor the NWS forecasts. They are the professionals. I think the hobbyists here have stated the most obvious tho that there is growing concern N and W. Wait and see what the actual zone forecasts look like for your area is my suggestion. And as always better to be prepared than not. sound advice. I have been doing this for 30+ years and I am very troubled with the chaos going on in all of the models, especially this mornings NAM run. Every storm event this week must be a now cast event. Models are changing as the events unfolds. .5 to 1 in of ice would literally devastate the rural areas of Lehigh and Berks counties. All of the tree trimming that PPL did the last five years from Sandy is going to pay off in just this storm event alone if it unfolds as it shows right now. Time for the pros to use all of the tools in the toolboxes and the weather historians to look at the analogies of ice storms in the 70's for our area. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Albedoman said: sound advice. I have been doing this for 30+ years and I am very troubled with the chaos going on in all of the models, especially this mornings NAM run. Every storm event this week must be a now cast event. Models are changing as the events unfolds. .5 to 1 in of ice would literally devastate the rural areas of Lehigh and Berks counties. All of the tree trimming that PPL did the last five years from Sandy is going to pay off in just this storm event alone if it unfolds as it shows right now. Time for the pros to use all of the tools in the toolboxes and the weather historians to look at the analogies of ice storms in the 70's for our area. I'm definitely a bit on edge out here, I've been through some bad Icing out this way in last 30yrs and had some pretty substantial damage done. no power for 1-2 weeks is not fun in the winter months. Ill be happy with 34 and rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, dssbss said: I wondering the same thing. . Boy I sure picked a good winter to move to Berks. Guess I should test-run the genny today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I foresee a ton of dead Ash trees coming down this week. Or at least pieces of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 In hindsight, maybe it's a good thing I lost a bunch of trees from the June derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Most of the individual HREF short range models paint at least 0.5" of ice across Berks and the Lehigh Valley. Remember, the freezing rain accretion maps are almost always overdone. But 0.25-0.5" of ice seems likely IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliviajames Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Newman said: Most of the individual HREF short range models paint at least 0.5" of ice across Berks and the Lehigh Valley. Remember, the freezing rain accretion maps are almost always overdone. But 0.25-0.5" of ice seems likely IMO Berks only need .25 for a Ice Storm Warning while Lehigh need .50. I still think if anything NWS will go with Winter Storm Watch/Warning if warranted. Or if they think less likely Advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Oliviajames said: Berks only need .25 for a Ice Storm Warning while Lehigh need .50. I still think if anything NWS will go with Winter Storm Watch/Warning if warranted. Or if they think less likely Advisories Mt Holly AFD this morning did mention WWA possible but didn’t expect much more than .10” ice, we’ll see what the Afternoon package says. Looking like we may get some snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Man the meso s are really cold for Monday night into Tuesday. Would be a significant ice storm even down to 95. This one is the most significant but all the mesos drop between .25"-.5"+ all the way to 95. HRRR also is much more significant than the globals with close to .25" frz down to 95. Lehigh valley should prepare for a major ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Man the meso s are really cold for Monday night into Tuesday. Would be a significant ice storm even down to 95. This one is the most significant but all the mesos drop between .25"-.5"+ all the way to 95. HRRR also is much more significant than the globals with close to .25" frz down to 95. Lehigh valley should prepare for a major ice event. Yeah I’m really Thinking Mt Holly might have an interesting AFD later on with the way guidance is trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Oliviajames said: Berks only need .25 for a Ice Storm Warning while Lehigh need .50. I still think if anything NWS will go with Winter Storm Watch/Warning if warranted. Or if they think less likely Advisories Different Criteria to trigger a warning for Ice is baffling. Unlike snow where the more prepared an area is I.e. plows. Etc. can impact each region much differently. Ice is ice. Accretion of .25” on trees and power lines creates the same issues in any county. Ice is much more of a great equalizer. It essentially cripples everyone 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Of course the 18z nam ticks warmer. Still a decent .25" icing in the lehigh valley but not much of note down towards 95 and burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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