RedSky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 ECM is alone with it, usually when it has no support it's wrong. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, RedSky said: ECM is alone with it, usually when it has no support it's wrong. It’s far from alone. Alot of guidance has .75-1” qpf with temps of 32-33 degrees. It’s still 3 days out and much can change but the general consensus is someone’s going to get a lot of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Total Ice accretion through Friday Morning on the Euro. This signal has been glaring for many days now ... someone is going to get wacked with one heck of an icing event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM is alone with it, usually when it has no support it's wrong. Its ens members are more supportive than the op itself. Bears watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Big mess shaping up N&W of 95. Change my mind Iceman got ya bro...he said this is a flood signal not really ice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: So are GEFS GEFS might be honking more than the euro and its ens tbh. Walking a tightrope between crippling ice and 35 with cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The ECM and it's 20" snow has verified great the last 10 days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Are we throwing out the NAM now it's been kicking ECM butt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: Are we throwing out the NAM now it's been kicking ECM butt The NAM is 33 and rain. The models aren’t really all that far apart here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said: The NAM is 33 and rain. The models aren’t really all that far apart here. Exactly....the usual zones (upper montco, upper Bucks, berks, lehigh, n chesco) are in trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Exactly....the usual zones (upper montco, upper Bucks, berks, lehigh, n chesco) are in trouble. That’s what im saying, I should have clarified. I have 16”+ snowpack, I think those areas you highlighted should prepare for the worst, and hopefully expect rain. But I just don’t see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Simply incredible to see ... a very rare event unfolding across the nation... the entire state of Oklahoma is under a winter storm warning and watches are down to the beaches of south Texas. This storm will be remembered for a very long time ... hopefully we escape a devastating ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Thing about an ice storm is experienced countless 28-32F moderate rain ice events and none were eventful, take temps 25 and below for significant ice accrual. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: Thing about an ice storm is experienced countless 28-32F moderate rain ice events and none were eventful, take temps 25 and below for significant ice accrual. I would go lower during daytime. 27F today and light drizzle and nothing. Took a stroll and everything was wet. People don't want to admit it but the sun angle is kicking in...27F currently, no ice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I would go lower during daytime. 27F today and light drizzle and nothing. Took a stroll and everything was wet. People don't want to admit it but the sun angle is kicking in...27F currently, no ice. I do not understand what you mean about sun angle at 27 degrees? Changing the subject...I live in north Wales boro and have a temperature of 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Naefs still indicating a minor possibly moderate flood threat this week for the areas that won't stay frozen especially in the smaller tributaries. https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs?Lat=40&Lon=-77&Zoom=7 And that doesn't include all of the storm drains that are blocked and frozen around here, there's going to be a lot of water with nowhere to go. Lehigh valley and other elevated areas will have to watch for ice but I just still do not seeing it be that big of a deal from central bucks/montco s and e but hey maybe the euro will finally score a coup after being hot garbage all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I would go lower during daytime. 27F today and light drizzle and nothing. Took a stroll and everything was wet. People don't want to admit it but the sun angle is kicking in...27F currently, no ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Who had a rougher 2020-2021 season, the Euro or Carson Wentz? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 That is not a good look for N and W zones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, blue sky said: I do not understand what you mean about sun angle at 27 degrees? Changing the subject...I live in north Wales boro and have a temperature of 25. You're older than me and if you don't know what sun angle means by now, I don't know what to tell you. Not being disrespectful. Accu weather/Weather Underground have me at 27F. Could they be off by a degree or so...sure? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Who had a rougher 2020-2021 season, the Euro or Carson Wentz? Lol...both a disaster. Howie is turning down trades I would make in a sec. Somehow he thinks Wentz is an Elite QB? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: You're older than me and if you don't know what sun angle means by now, I don't know what to tell you. Not being disrespectful. Accu weather/Weather Underground have me at 27F. Could they be off by a degree or so...sure? Sun Angle effects temperature. Warmer in summers...colder in winter. How does it affect this storm at 25-27 degrees? Accue weather had me at 25 in the boro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Who had a rougher 2020-2021 season, the Euro or Carson Wentz? If you look at the skill score the Euro is still leading the pac by far. It’s not even close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, blue sky said: Sun Angle effects temperature. Warmer in summers...colder in winter. How does it affect this storm at 25-27 degrees? Accue weather had me at 25 in the boro. It will heat the surface more so than Dec, Jan...slowly but surely ice/snow will be harder to accumulate on surfaces. I've gone Trout fishing in late March/early April w/early temps in the 20s/30s and by the end of the day, sunburned w/a high of 45-50F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said: If you look at the skill score the Euro is still leading the pac by far. It’s not even close No it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 34 minutes ago, blue sky said: I do not understand what you mean about sun angle at 27 degrees? Changing the subject...I live in north Wales boro and have a temperature of 25. I'm in blue bell attm 26f and glazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 24 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: You're older than me and if you don't know what sun angle means by now, I don't know what to tell you. Not being disrespectful. Accu weather/Weather Underground have me at 27F. Could they be off by a degree or so...sure? Has nothing to do with sun angle in this case. Good lord 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Thing about an ice storm is experienced countless 28-32F moderate rain ice events and none were eventful, take temps 25 and below for significant ice accrual. Nighttime is a different story though. Feb. 5th 2014 we had freezing rain between midnight and 8 am, all between 30-32F, and lost power for 3 days. Of course there was snow stuck to trees from a wet snow a couple of days before, which accelerated the process, but we did get about 3/8" of ice overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm in blue bell attm 26f and glazing Pavements...roads...or just snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: As I said it’s Not Even Close.... see 2020 skill score for the Euro... it continues to dominate. It’s not perfect but it’s the clear leader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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