Heisy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro trending more like cmc with phasing of the tpv, would warm things up here. Now looks like Thursday may be a better threat for frozen heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Euro trending more like cmc with phasing of the tpv, would warm things up here. Now looks like Thursday may be a better threat for frozen heh Model mayhem. Wonder which of these waves/threats ends up the surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Is CAD going to be an issue with these storms? I know the cold tends to hold on pretty well in the Berks County area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Model mayhem. Wonder which of these waves/threats ends up the surprise. Pretty big win for the cmc/NAM camp If it holds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Pretty big win for the cmc/NAM camp If it holds NAM has been crushing it lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 LOL...typical MA subforum back to back. Not busting, just funny... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: LOL...typical MA subforum back to back. Not busting, just funny... Nothing can be worse than when MA, philly and nyc were all one subforum. Reading out model runs was so confusing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: Nothing can be worse than when MA, philly and nyc were all one subforum. Reading out model runs was so confusing. There's a reason why the Philly subforum doesn't need Mods. Damn, I feel bad for Stormtracker, Mappy etc to deal w/this shit on a daily basis.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 ^ My post above should have been in the 2/13 - 2/14 thread....so many threads, confusing at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Nam looks awful.. hopefully it doesn't continue it's recent hot streak because it looks like a gully washer shaping up at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 34 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: There's a reason why the Philly subforum doesn't need Mods. Damn, I feel bad for Stormtracker, Mappy etc to deal w/this shit on a daily basis.... What's with all of the weenie's from green keeper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: What's with all of the weenie's from green keeper That's his job and paid well. He's not allowed to post...just hand out weenies as needed, 24/7. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: That's his job and paid well. He's not allowed to post...just hand out weenies as needed, 24/7. Not allowed to post, what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 23 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Nam looks awful.. hopefully it doesn't continue it's recent hot streak because it looks like a gully washer shaping up at 84 Why are you evening looking at the 84 NAM? Those thermals alone are waaaayyyy off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 to see an Appalachian runner this time of the year in the current pattern is unreal. I just do not see this happening with the strong High bull-nosing down in the midwest and southern plains with the extremely cold air. Its really a battle between the SE ridge and that dam high with the resulting moisture getting rung further southeast with every passing wave. The SE ridge will have to give some now and force the lp further northeast. The current models are off big time resulting in chaos. I base this on not enough data from the NW PAC to be ingested in the models. I would bet this lp moves further SE big time over the course of the next 48-72 hours and or another LP will form of the SC coast. Past historical weather patterns have demonstrated this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Why are you evening looking at the 84 NAM? Those thermals alone are waaaayyyy off. Guess you haven't been paying attention to the nam(and rgem) both cleaning the globals clock the last week in their long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 More ice Thursday and Friday. Here's a clown freezing rain map of both storms. If you're into destruction of the power grid you'll love this upcoming week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Newman said: More ice Thursday and Friday. Here's a clown freezing rain map of both storms. If you're into destruction of the power grid you'll love this upcoming week The warning should definitely get out there. Glad I am prepared from this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I don't have a generator. Guess I'll grill outside by a fire if it comes to it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS is just insanity. Places would need consecutive ice storm warnings days apart. We have a chance of light freezing rain Sunday/Monday. Then the Tuesday system (which hopefully trends colder in the mid levels to reduce ice and increase snow) and then the Thursday/Friday system which the Euro likes for more snow than ice, GFS disagrees as of now. Active week ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 NAM is on the extreme end of guidance with the warmth. I dont see it this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Rgem is even warmer than the nam at 84. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021021218/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_84.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Rgem is even warmer than the nam at 84. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021021218/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_84.png Setting up a bigger Thursday system. Its not going to be that mild as the RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18z euro also gets 95 and immediate nw burbs above freezing. Not quite as warm as nam/rgem but warmer than the cmc/gfs and bigger plain rain signal than ice. Heaviest precip arrives just as temps go above 32 for 95 and burbs. Big time ice out in lehigh valley though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z NAM much colder for Tuesday. Low pressure tracks into the Tenn Valley then jumps the coast. Close to a mostly frozen event now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: 18z euro also gets 95 and immediate nw burbs above freezing. Not quite as warm as nam/rgem but warmer than the cmc/gfs and bigger plain rain signal than ice. Heaviest precip arrives just as temps go above 32 for 95 and burbs. Big time ice out in lehigh valley though. It will almost undoubtedly get into the mid 30s at points during this extended wave train. I never bought into those extreme looks the NAM was showing though. You cant drive a low into Lake Erie with a molasses HP, nao ridging, and the PV sitting there. No place for that surface low to go but under us on Tuesday. Temps will be close but not a full blown warm flooding rainstorm. Probably trends back to a significant icing event tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 0z NAM much colder for Tuesday. Low pressure tracks into the Tenn Valley then jumps the coast. Close to a mostly frozen event now. as I said before the LP will jump to the coast. The NAM is starting to show this though the LP is further north than what I initially thought . Sleet maybe a problem for the I-95 area but I see more snow in the LV area and less ice. -to see an Appalachian runner this time of the year in the current pattern is unreal. I just do not see this happening with the strong High bull-nosing down in the midwest and southern plains with the extremely cold air. Its really a battle between the SE ridge and that dam high with the resulting moisture getting rung further southeast with every passing wave. The SE ridge will have to give some now and force the lp further northeast. The current models are off big time resulting in chaos. I base this on not enough data from the NW PAC to be ingested in the models. I would bet this lp moves further SE big time over the course of the next 48-72 hours and or another LP will form of the SC coast. Past historical weather patterns have demonstrated this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 ICON is colder. Light rain to fzra and sleet overnight Sunday into early Monday AM with that rogue wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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