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February 13, 2021 Ice Storm Obs


WxUSAF
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29 minutes ago, haudidoody said:

Not when it's presented in my dining room, no.

Rooting hard against any ice, especially given condition of a few bent pines around my house.

I'm on a four bust streak here, happy for a fifth.

How far apart were your four busts?. That’s pretty impressive. 

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49 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Something is and has been coming over last 10 days and for next 4. Models have not known what nor where and will not so neither do or will we. Looks like significant arctic plunge was a bust also even if two days for upper 20’s high upcoming A new method is desperately needed and I have the answer. 

Im wondering what the answer is.  Can you enlighten me?

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33 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

GFS no bueno.  I don’t recall a winter like this where everything falls apart less than 48 hours to game time.  What’s the point of tracking?  

This! By far the most annoying winter of tracking in my life. Every single storm collapses completely within 4 days. It is Fing ridiculous. 

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1999 was worst I’ve seen. Wheaton and Kemp Mill  Glenmont and west 0.25+ and 27/28. Pepco had not trimmed yet and it was a 7 day out for some. We had to move relatives , Sharp demarcation as I was living in far a nw PG which is highest point and about 5 miles east and we definitely iced at 30/31 but only about 0.1 and not hard frozen. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

1999 was worst I’ve seen. Wheaton and Kemp Mill  Glenmont and west 0.25+ and 27/28. Pepco had not trimmed yet and it was a 7 day out for some. We had to move relatives , Sharp demarcation as I was living in far a nw PG which is highest point and about 5 miles east and we definitely iced at 30/31 but only about 0.1 and not hard frozen. 

 

 

Well break out your golf umbrella for this one. You are going to need it. 

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LWX morning disco still discussing warnings despite overnight runs apparently

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday, the next winter storm arrives, with low pressure
sliding by to our southeast. Precipitation falling on the
northwest side of the low will fall through an above freezing
layer and into sub-freezing surface air. Guidance has continued
to trend downwards in terms of QPF totals, so have come down a
bit since the previous forecast. That being said, conditions
will be favorable (temps in the upper 20s to near 30 and a 10-15
mph breeze) for some decent accretion rates. Taking all of this
into account, have come up with a pretty wide swath of 0.1 to
0.2 inches of accretion along/east of the Blue Ridge, and an
area closer to (perhaps exceeding) a quarter inch along and east
of I-95. As said before, trends have been coming down in terms
of moisture availability, but still on track for the Winter
Storm Watch area to get a decent icing event. An upgrade to a
Winter Storm Warning may bee needed on subsequent updates, but
at this time, do not have the confidence to do so given the
recent trends.

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06z 3km NAM now has 0.23" ice at DCA through 60 hours while 00z had 0.05"... expansive area of 0.20" to 0.40" on this 06z run across a majority of the LWX CWA

06z 12km NAM now has 0.1-0.2" ice along i95 corridor from BWI to EZF... S MD 0.3-0.4" ice

06z RGEM is 0.1-0.2" ice along i95 corridor BWI to EZF... just south of EZF and S MD 0.25-0.35" ice

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8 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Something is and has been coming over last 10 days and for next 4. Models have not known what nor where and will not so neither do or will we. Looks like significant arctic plunge was a bust also even if two days for upper 20’s high upcoming A new method is desperately needed and I have the answer. 

I agree with *some* of the stuff you say about model failures, so please post whatever your method is. I’ve seen you make several posts alluding to this “method”, so I would like to see if it stands up to scrutiny. Not trolling- I’m genuinely curious.

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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I agree with *some* of the stuff you say about model failures, so please post whatever your method is. I’ve seen you make several posts alluding to this “method”, so I would like to see if it stands up to scrutiny. Not trolling- I’m genuinely curious.

 

woollybear caterpillar.jpg

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20 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I agree with *some* of the stuff you say about model failures, so please post whatever your method is. I’ve seen you make several posts alluding to this “method”, so I would like to see if it stands up to scrutiny. Not trolling- I’m genuinely curious.

Hunch?   Analogues.

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