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February 13, 2021 Ice Storm Obs


WxUSAF
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16 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

I'm still confused ... so It doesn't like the ice storm idea but thinks today's snow is better than anticipated?

The GFS has a discombobulated nonsense system that gives nobody in NOVA/MD significant anything. It does, however, support snow this evening for parts of NOVA. Spoiler alert: it’s probably wrong about this evening based on the EURO/NAM/PARA/HRRR

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22 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

The GFS has a discombobulated nonsense system that gives nobody in NOVA/MD significant anything. It does, however, support snow this evening for parts of NOVA. Spoiler alert: it’s probably wrong about this evening based on the EURO/NAM/PARA/HRRR

It spits out a tenth of an inch of freezing rain which would actually still be impactful with a temp in the upper 20s. The GFS is the driest solution by a long shot at this point.

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Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GFS showery/light precip look is probably what you wanna root for if you like accretion.  It’s not gonna be cold enough for heavy rain to accrete I’d think.  

It will still accumulate on everything (particularly at night) if the temp is 31 or below even with heavy rates, it just won’t be as efficient at accumulating.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes, I looked very quick and was doing a double take.  I guess they think areas to the north are either more sleet or just less precip in total?

Not sure I was going to ask you that too.  It’s odd to see those counties in watch.  

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