NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, high risk said: One more time for those in the back: .02" of freezing rain is a high-impact event if it's in the 20's and has been for hours leading up the event. That said, there is a clear signal in the CAMs, the parent NAM, the GFS para, and the 18z GFS for sleet at the start for most of the area except for southern MD where it's all ice. Having a coating of sleet first would certainly lessen the impact of freezing rain on surfaces, although I still think that it's going to be unpleasant walking or driving tomorrow and tomorrow night. Yeah, I don't mean to minimize the threat that ice poses! I do like to root for interesting weather (that isn't tornadoes or wind) though, so I'm slightly disappointed when the numbers are lower. Totally understand the danger remains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 If 0.02" and cold surfaces/air temperatures is a high-impact event shouldn't the criterium for ice storm warning be changed; I thought 0.02" without sleet/snow is an ice storm advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: If 0.02" and cold surfaces/air temperatures is a high-impact event shouldn't the criterium for ice storm warning be changed; I thought 0.02" without sleet/snow is an ice storm advisory Freezing rain advisory I think. I don’t think we will know how high impact this is until game time. How much sleet? How much precip? Temps? Lots to consider as you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 At this point I am not relying on the models. Better off using this... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, yoda said: Eexcept for the ISW in S MD and EZF area Yes Yoda, the post above mine indicated that already, that's why I didn't mention that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 28 minutes ago, KAOS said: At this point I am not relying on the models. Better off using this... I just told my ex who's planning to drive back from Little Rock to get her dog that we'd be better off using a tarot reader at this point. And speaking of fortune, even Little Rock is slated for 4-8" now...Watch their storm verify. What is this world coming to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 hours ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I just told my ex who's planning to drive back from Little Rock to get her dog that we'd be better off using a tarot reader at this point. And speaking of fortune, even Little Rock is slated for 4-8" now...Watch their storm verify. What is this world coming to? Even Houston is getting in on the icy action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 LWX extends the Winter Weather Advisory for Mason Dixon: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=54220340 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: LWX extends the Winter Weather Advisory for Mason Dixon: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=54220340 They must have access to intel we don’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 WBAL is saying widespread coating-1” of snow before ice tomorrow. This is apparently all due to the IBM GRAF model. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL is saying widespread coating-1” of snow before ice tomorrow. This is apparently all due to the IBM GRAF model. FWIW, Para supports this for most north of rte 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL is saying widespread coating-1” of snow before ice tomorrow. This is apparently all due to the IBM GRAF model. Extended 18z hrrr and 18z rgem also support some snow to start for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, snowfan said: FWIW, Para supports this for most north of rte 32. Isn't 32 a north south route? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Where is the warm air getting in here from and at what mb height? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Isn't 32 a north south route? Mores east to west with slight NS angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King George Dee Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Latest warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 New bunch of WWAs. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 Hardy- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Hardy County. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 VAZ027-131000- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Shenandoah County. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 VAZ030-131000- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.210213T0600Z-210214T1200Z/ Warren- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Warren County. * WHEN...From 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 MDZ501-WVZ050-501>504-131000- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.210213T1200Z-210213T1800Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Hampshire-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 MDZ003>006-502-507-VAZ028-031-WVZ051>053-131000- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.210213T1200Z-210214T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Harford-Frederick VA- Clarke-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northern and western Maryland, northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. * WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, northeast and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 Augusta-Rockingham-Page-Greene-Eastern Highland- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Greene, Eastern Highland, Augusta, Page and Rockingham Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 MDZ018-VAZ039-040-051-502-507-131000- /O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.210213T0600Z-210214T1200Z/ Calvert-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Southern Fauquier- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 Western Highland-Eastern Pendleton- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton County. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 WVZ505-131000-Western Pendleton- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Western Pendleton County. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The Winter Storm Watch is still showing in my point forecast. Is it still up too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18z euro continues to depict a nasty ice storm with no sleet and .38 inch of freezing rain in dc, essentially the same solution as 12z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, chris21 said: 18z euro continues to depict a nasty ice storm with no sleet and .38 inch of freezing rain in dc, essentially the same solution as 12z. When does precip start on this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chase said: The Winter Storm Watch is still showing in my point forecast. Is it still up too? Yeah. Same for me. I'm wondering if LWX still thinks they may have to upgrade to a warning at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 latest hrrr has a band of sleet/snow coming through the metro's between 6-8am tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Is it really necessary to post a county by county warning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 How much for Crozet? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is it really necessary to post a county by county warning? Posterity. Interesting how they did Warren, Shenandoah, Frederick in their individualized advisories. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, arlwx said: New bunch of WWAs. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 Hardy- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Hardy County. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 VAZ027-131000- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Shenandoah County. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 VAZ030-131000- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.210213T0600Z-210214T1200Z/ Warren- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Warren County. * WHEN...From 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 MDZ501-WVZ050-501>504-131000- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.210213T1200Z-210213T1800Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Hampshire-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 MDZ003>006-502-507-VAZ028-031-WVZ051>053-131000- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.210213T1200Z-210214T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Harford-Frederick VA- Clarke-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northern and western Maryland, northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. * WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, northeast and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 Augusta-Rockingham-Page-Greene-Eastern Highland- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Greene, Eastern Highland, Augusta, Page and Rockingham Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 MDZ018-VAZ039-040-051-502-507-131000- /O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.210213T0600Z-210214T1200Z/ Calvert-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Southern Fauquier- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 Western Highland-Eastern Pendleton- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton County. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 WVZ505-131000-Western Pendleton- 647 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Western Pendleton County. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. Nice 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 And I just kept scrolling and scrolling. I never thought it would end.... 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, chris21 said: 18z euro continues to depict a nasty ice storm with no sleet and .38 inch of freezing rain in dc, essentially the same solution as 12z. Can you post a state map or just give me RVA plz? I only have 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Nice I hate you for that 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I hate you for that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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